Opinion Poll by Ninamedia for Dnevnik, Večer, 14–16 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 28.0% 25.9–30.3% 25.3–30.9% 24.8–31.4% 23.8–32.5%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 20.3% 18.4–22.3% 17.9–22.9% 17.5–23.4% 16.6–24.4%
Levica 9.3% 14.0% 12.4–15.8% 12.0–16.3% 11.6–16.8% 10.9–17.7%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 13.6% 12.0–15.4% 11.6–15.9% 11.2–16.3% 10.5–17.2%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 8.1% 7.0–9.6% 6.6–10.0% 6.3–10.4% 5.8–11.2%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 5.3% 4.3–6.5% 4.1–6.9% 3.9–7.2% 3.4–7.8%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 2.4% 1.8–3.4% 1.7–3.6% 1.5–3.9% 1.3–4.4%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 2.3% 1.7–3.2% 1.5–3.5% 1.4–3.7% 1.2–4.2%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 1.4% 1.0–2.2% 0.9–2.4% 0.8–2.6% 0.6–3.0%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 0.9% 0.5–1.5% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–1.9% 0.3–2.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 28 25–30 24–30 23–31 23–32
Socialni demokrati 10 20 18–21 17–22 17–23 16–24
Levica 9 13 12–15 12–16 11–16 10–17
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 13 12–15 11–15 11–16 10–17
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 7 6–9 6–10 6–10 5–11
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 5 4–6 4–6 0–6 0–7
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0 0 0 0–4
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0 0 0 0
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 3% 99.8%  
24 4% 97%  
25 8% 92% Last Result
26 14% 85%  
27 16% 70%  
28 17% 54% Median
29 22% 37%  
30 10% 15%  
31 4% 5%  
32 0.9% 1.1%  
33 0.2% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.2% 100%  
16 1.1% 99.8%  
17 8% 98.7%  
18 8% 91%  
19 13% 83%  
20 22% 70% Median
21 39% 48%  
22 6% 10%  
23 2% 4%  
24 1.0% 1.3%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0.6% 100%  
11 3% 99.3%  
12 21% 96%  
13 30% 75% Median
14 27% 46%  
15 14% 19%  
16 3% 5%  
17 1.4% 2%  
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 1.3% 99.9%  
11 7% 98.5%  
12 14% 91%  
13 44% 78% Last Result, Median
14 22% 34%  
15 8% 12%  
16 3% 4%  
17 0.5% 0.6%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.6% 100%  
6 13% 99.4%  
7 39% 86% Last Result, Median
8 35% 47%  
9 6% 12%  
10 4% 5%  
11 0.7% 0.7%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 0% 96%  
2 0% 96%  
3 0.2% 96%  
4 23% 96%  
5 55% 73% Last Result, Median
6 16% 18%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0.2% 2%  
4 2% 2% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.7%  
2 0% 0.7%  
3 0% 0.7%  
4 0.7% 0.7%  
5 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 50 46 63% 43–48 41–48 41–50 39–50
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 41 0.8% 38–43 37–44 37–45 35–46
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 41 0.8% 38–43 37–44 37–45 35–46
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 41 0.8% 38–43 37–44 37–45 35–46
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 41 0.8% 38–43 37–44 37–45 35–46
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 41 1.3% 38–43 37–44 37–44 36–46
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 41 1.3% 38–43 37–44 37–44 36–46
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 43 39 0% 35–40 34–41 33–42 32–42
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 34 0% 31–35 30–36 29–37 28–38
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 34 0% 31–35 30–36 29–37 28–38
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 34 0% 31–35 30–36 29–37 28–38
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra 33 34 0% 31–35 30–36 29–37 28–38
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 20 0% 18–21 17–22 17–23 16–24

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100%  
39 0.4% 99.8%  
40 0.7% 99.4%  
41 4% 98.7%  
42 4% 94%  
43 7% 91%  
44 10% 84%  
45 11% 75% Median
46 36% 63% Majority
47 15% 27%  
48 7% 12%  
49 2% 5%  
50 2% 3% Last Result
51 0.2% 0.3%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.5% 99.9% Last Result
36 2% 99.5%  
37 4% 98%  
38 6% 94%  
39 12% 87%  
40 11% 75% Median
41 32% 65%  
42 21% 33%  
43 6% 12%  
44 3% 6%  
45 2% 3%  
46 0.5% 0.8% Majority
47 0.2% 0.3%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.5% 99.9%  
36 2% 99.5%  
37 4% 98%  
38 6% 94%  
39 12% 87%  
40 11% 75% Median
41 32% 65%  
42 21% 33%  
43 6% 12%  
44 3% 6%  
45 2% 3% Last Result
46 0.5% 0.8% Majority
47 0.2% 0.3%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.5% 99.9%  
36 2% 99.5%  
37 4% 98%  
38 6% 94%  
39 12% 87%  
40 11% 75% Median
41 32% 65%  
42 21% 33%  
43 6% 12%  
44 3% 6%  
45 2% 3%  
46 0.5% 0.8% Majority
47 0.2% 0.3%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.5% 99.9%  
36 2% 99.5%  
37 4% 98%  
38 6% 94%  
39 12% 87%  
40 11% 75% Last Result, Median
41 32% 65%  
42 21% 33%  
43 6% 12%  
44 3% 6%  
45 2% 3%  
46 0.5% 0.8% Majority
47 0.2% 0.3%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.9%  
36 0.9% 99.5%  
37 7% 98.6%  
38 9% 91%  
39 10% 82%  
40 9% 72%  
41 23% 63% Median
42 24% 40%  
43 9% 16% Last Result
44 5% 7%  
45 0.9% 2%  
46 1.2% 1.3% Majority
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.9%  
36 0.9% 99.5%  
37 7% 98.6%  
38 9% 91% Last Result
39 10% 82%  
40 9% 72%  
41 23% 63% Median
42 24% 40%  
43 9% 16%  
44 5% 7%  
45 0.9% 2%  
46 1.2% 1.3% Majority
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.8%  
32 0.7% 99.7%  
33 4% 99.0%  
34 3% 95%  
35 6% 93%  
36 6% 87%  
37 13% 81%  
38 18% 68% Median
39 31% 50%  
40 14% 19%  
41 2% 5%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 1.1% 99.9% Last Result
29 3% 98.8%  
30 4% 96%  
31 8% 92%  
32 14% 84%  
33 12% 70% Median
34 43% 58%  
35 9% 15%  
36 3% 6%  
37 3% 4%  
38 0.4% 0.6%  
39 0.2% 0.2%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 1.1% 99.9%  
29 3% 98.8%  
30 4% 96%  
31 8% 92%  
32 14% 84%  
33 12% 70% Median
34 43% 58%  
35 9% 15%  
36 3% 6%  
37 3% 4%  
38 0.4% 0.6% Last Result
39 0.2% 0.2%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.1% 100%  
28 1.1% 99.9%  
29 3% 98.8%  
30 4% 96%  
31 8% 92%  
32 14% 84%  
33 12% 70% Median
34 43% 58%  
35 9% 15%  
36 3% 6%  
37 3% 4%  
38 0.4% 0.6%  
39 0.2% 0.2%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 1.1% 99.9%  
29 3% 98.8%  
30 4% 96%  
31 8% 92%  
32 14% 84%  
33 12% 70% Last Result, Median
34 43% 58%  
35 9% 15%  
36 3% 6%  
37 3% 4%  
38 0.4% 0.6%  
39 0.2% 0.2%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 1.1% 99.8%  
17 8% 98.7%  
18 8% 91%  
19 13% 83%  
20 22% 70% Median
21 39% 48%  
22 6% 10%  
23 2% 4%  
24 1.1% 1.3%  
25 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
26 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations