Opinion Poll by Mediana for POP TV, 1–26 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 27.3% 25.2–29.6% 24.6–30.2% 24.1–30.7% 23.2–31.8%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 17.5% 15.8–19.4% 15.3–20.0% 14.9–20.5% 14.1–21.5%
Levica 9.3% 14.5% 12.9–16.3% 12.5–16.9% 12.1–17.3% 11.4–18.2%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 12.8% 11.3–14.6% 10.9–15.0% 10.5–15.5% 9.8–16.4%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 9.5% 8.2–11.1% 7.9–11.5% 7.6–11.9% 7.0–12.7%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 7.1% 6.0–8.5% 5.7–8.9% 5.4–9.3% 5.0–10.0%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 3.6% 2.8–4.6% 2.6–4.9% 2.4–5.2% 2.1–5.8%
Piratska stranka Slovenije 2.2% 3.1% 2.4–4.1% 2.2–4.4% 2.1–4.7% 1.8–5.2%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 2.6% 1.9–3.5% 1.8–3.8% 1.6–4.0% 1.4–4.5%
Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije 1.1% 2.0% 1.5–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.2–3.3% 1.0–3.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 26 25–29 24–31 23–31 22–32
Socialni demokrati 10 17 15–18 15–20 14–21 14–21
Levica 9 14 12–16 12–17 11–18 11–18
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 12 11–14 11–14 10–15 9–16
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 9 8–11 7–11 7–12 7–12
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 7 5–8 5–8 5–9 4–10
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Piratska stranka Slovenije 0 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–5
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0 0 0–4 0–4
Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije 0 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 0.1% 99.8%  
22 0.6% 99.7%  
23 2% 99.2%  
24 5% 97%  
25 10% 92% Last Result
26 36% 82% Median
27 16% 46%  
28 8% 30%  
29 14% 22%  
30 2% 8%  
31 5% 5%  
32 0.5% 0.6%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.3% 99.9%  
14 4% 99.6%  
15 12% 96%  
16 8% 84%  
17 35% 76% Median
18 32% 40%  
19 3% 9%  
20 1.3% 6%  
21 5% 5%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0.3% 100%  
11 3% 99.7%  
12 20% 97%  
13 14% 77%  
14 16% 63% Median
15 11% 47%  
16 30% 36%  
17 2% 6%  
18 4% 4%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.9% 100%  
10 3% 99.1%  
11 34% 96%  
12 29% 62% Median
13 22% 33% Last Result
14 7% 11%  
15 3% 5%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 0.4% 100%  
7 9% 99.6%  
8 11% 91%  
9 33% 80% Median
10 16% 47%  
11 28% 31%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.9% 100%  
5 16% 99.0%  
6 27% 83%  
7 44% 56% Last Result, Median
8 9% 13%  
9 3% 4%  
10 0.5% 0.5%  
11 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 73% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 27%  
2 0% 27%  
3 2% 27%  
4 22% 25%  
5 2% 3%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Piratska stranka Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratska stranka Slovenije page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 8%  
2 0% 8%  
3 0.2% 8%  
4 6% 7%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Median
1 0% 5%  
2 0% 5%  
3 0.2% 5%  
4 5% 5% Last Result
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 39 0.4% 37–42 36–43 35–43 33–45
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 36 0% 34–38 33–39 32–39 31–41
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 29 0% 27–32 27–32 25–33 24–34

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.8%  
34 2% 99.5%  
35 2% 98%  
36 6% 96%  
37 29% 90%  
38 11% 62% Last Result, Median
39 8% 50%  
40 16% 42%  
41 12% 25%  
42 5% 13%  
43 6% 8%  
44 1.3% 2%  
45 0.5% 0.9%  
46 0.4% 0.4% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.3% 100% Last Result
31 0.5% 99.7%  
32 2% 99.2%  
33 6% 97%  
34 11% 92%  
35 28% 81%  
36 25% 53% Median
37 13% 29%  
38 7% 15%  
39 7% 8%  
40 1.0% 2%  
41 0.4% 0.8%  
42 0.3% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0.6% 99.9%  
25 2% 99.4%  
26 2% 97%  
27 7% 95%  
28 29% 88%  
29 16% 58% Median
30 15% 43%  
31 17% 28%  
32 8% 11%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.3% 0.7%  
35 0.2% 0.4%  
36 0% 0.2%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations