Opinion Poll by Mediana for Delo, 4–7 October 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 28.2% 26.1–30.4% 25.5–31.0% 25.0–31.6% 24.0–32.7%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 13.9% 12.4–15.7% 12.0–16.2% 11.6–16.7% 10.9–17.6%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 13.8% 12.3–15.6% 11.8–16.1% 11.5–16.5% 10.8–17.4%
Levica 9.3% 13.4% 11.9–15.1% 11.4–15.7% 11.1–16.1% 10.4–17.0%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 8.2% 7.0–9.7% 6.7–10.1% 6.4–10.5% 5.9–11.2%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 6.8% 5.8–8.2% 5.5–8.6% 5.2–8.9% 4.7–9.6%
Piratska stranka Slovenije 2.2% 4.6% 3.7–5.8% 3.5–6.1% 3.3–6.4% 2.9–7.0%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 2.6% 2.0–3.6% 1.8–3.9% 1.7–4.1% 1.4–4.6%
Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije 1.1% 1.8% 1.3–2.6% 1.2–2.9% 1.1–3.1% 0.9–3.5%
Dobra država 1.5% 1.3% 0.9–2.0% 0.7–2.2% 0.7–2.4% 0.5–2.8%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 1.1% 0.7–1.8% 0.7–2.0% 0.6–2.2% 0.4–2.6%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 0.8% 0.5–1.5% 0.5–1.6% 0.4–1.8% 0.3–2.2%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 0.6% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.4% 0.1–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 29 26–30 25–30 25–31 25–33
Socialni demokrati 10 13 12–14 11–15 11–17 11–18
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 12 12–16 12–16 11–16 11–17
Levica 9 13 12–15 11–15 11–15 10–17
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 10 7–10 7–10 6–10 5–10
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 6 6–8 5–9 5–9 4–10
Piratska stranka Slovenije 0 5 4–5 0–6 0–6 0–7
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0–3 0–4
Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dobra država 0 0 0 0 0 0
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0 0 0 0
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100%  
24 0.3% 99.9%  
25 5% 99.6% Last Result
26 19% 95%  
27 5% 76%  
28 9% 71%  
29 50% 62% Median
30 7% 12%  
31 3% 5%  
32 0.4% 2%  
33 1.0% 1.1%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.5% 100% Last Result
11 6% 99.5%  
12 23% 94%  
13 48% 71% Median
14 15% 22%  
15 3% 8%  
16 1.5% 5%  
17 0.7% 3%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 2% 99.8%  
12 52% 97% Median
13 19% 46% Last Result
14 6% 27%  
15 10% 21%  
16 9% 10%  
17 1.0% 1.3%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.3% 100% Last Result
10 0.6% 99.7%  
11 7% 99.1%  
12 15% 93%  
13 49% 78% Median
14 10% 29%  
15 16% 19%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0.3% 0.6%  
18 0.3% 0.3%  
19 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.0% 100%  
6 3% 99.0%  
7 9% 96% Last Result
8 15% 87%  
9 11% 72%  
10 60% 61% Median
11 0.4% 0.5%  
12 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0.9% 99.9%  
5 5% 99.0% Last Result
6 51% 94% Median
7 29% 43%  
8 7% 14%  
9 6% 7%  
10 0.7% 0.8%  
11 0% 0%  

Piratska stranka Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratska stranka Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100% Last Result
1 0% 93%  
2 0% 93%  
3 0% 93%  
4 20% 93%  
5 66% 73% Median
6 6% 7%  
7 1.0% 1.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 2% 3%  
4 0.9% 1.1%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Dobra država

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dobra država page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 50 41 3% 40–44 40–44 39–46 38–47
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 41 1.4% 39–44 39–45 38–45 37–46
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 41 1.4% 39–44 39–45 38–45 37–46
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 32 0% 31–36 31–37 31–39 30–40
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 35 0% 34–37 31–38 31–38 30–40
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 45 35 0% 34–37 31–38 31–38 30–40
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 35 0% 34–37 31–38 31–38 30–40
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 35 0% 34–37 31–38 31–38 30–40
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 25 0% 25–29 24–30 24–31 24–33
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 38 25 0% 25–29 24–30 24–31 24–33
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 25 0% 25–29 24–30 24–31 24–33
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra 33 25 0% 25–29 24–30 24–31 24–33
Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 25 13 0% 12–14 11–15 11–17 11–18

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 1.2% 99.6%  
39 2% 98%  
40 9% 96%  
41 44% 87% Median
42 16% 43%  
43 10% 27%  
44 12% 17%  
45 2% 5%  
46 0.9% 3% Majority
47 1.4% 2%  
48 0.1% 0.3%  
49 0.3% 0.3%  
50 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.4% 100%  
37 0.6% 99.5%  
38 3% 98.9%  
39 16% 96%  
40 4% 80%  
41 47% 77% Median
42 10% 29%  
43 5% 19% Last Result
44 5% 14%  
45 7% 8%  
46 1.0% 1.4% Majority
47 0.1% 0.4%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.4% 100%  
37 0.6% 99.5%  
38 3% 98.9% Last Result
39 16% 96%  
40 4% 80%  
41 47% 77% Median
42 10% 29%  
43 5% 19%  
44 5% 14%  
45 7% 8%  
46 1.0% 1.4% Majority
47 0.1% 0.4%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.8%  
30 0.5% 99.6%  
31 46% 99.1% Median
32 15% 53%  
33 9% 38%  
34 11% 29%  
35 3% 18%  
36 9% 15%  
37 2% 6%  
38 1.3% 4%  
39 1.3% 3%  
40 1.2% 1.2%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.8% 100%  
31 5% 99.1%  
32 0.6% 95%  
33 4% 94%  
34 3% 90%  
35 59% 87% Last Result, Median
36 11% 28%  
37 9% 17%  
38 6% 8%  
39 0.7% 2%  
40 1.1% 2%  
41 0.3% 0.4%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.8% 100%  
31 5% 99.1%  
32 0.6% 95%  
33 4% 94%  
34 3% 90%  
35 59% 87% Median
36 11% 28%  
37 9% 17%  
38 6% 8%  
39 0.7% 2%  
40 1.1% 2%  
41 0.3% 0.4%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.8% 100% Last Result
31 5% 99.1%  
32 0.6% 95%  
33 4% 94%  
34 3% 90%  
35 59% 87% Median
36 11% 28%  
37 9% 17%  
38 6% 8%  
39 0.7% 2%  
40 1.1% 2%  
41 0.3% 0.4%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.8% 100%  
31 5% 99.1%  
32 0.6% 95%  
33 4% 94%  
34 3% 90%  
35 59% 87% Median
36 11% 28%  
37 9% 17%  
38 6% 8%  
39 0.7% 2%  
40 1.1% 2% Last Result
41 0.3% 0.4%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 0.3% 99.8%  
24 7% 99.5%  
25 56% 93% Median
26 7% 36%  
27 7% 29%  
28 7% 22% Last Result
29 8% 15%  
30 4% 7%  
31 1.1% 3%  
32 1.0% 2%  
33 1.0% 1.1%  
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 0.3% 99.8%  
24 7% 99.5%  
25 56% 93% Median
26 7% 36%  
27 7% 29%  
28 7% 22%  
29 8% 15%  
30 4% 7%  
31 1.1% 3%  
32 1.0% 2%  
33 1.0% 1.1%  
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 0.3% 99.8% Last Result
24 7% 99.5%  
25 56% 93% Median
26 7% 36%  
27 7% 29%  
28 7% 22%  
29 8% 15%  
30 4% 7%  
31 1.1% 3%  
32 1.0% 2%  
33 1.0% 1.1%  
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 0.3% 99.8%  
24 7% 99.5%  
25 56% 93% Median
26 7% 36%  
27 7% 29%  
28 7% 22%  
29 8% 15%  
30 4% 7%  
31 1.1% 3%  
32 1.0% 2%  
33 1.0% 1.1% Last Result
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.5% 100%  
11 6% 99.5%  
12 23% 94%  
13 48% 71% Median
14 15% 22%  
15 3% 8%  
16 1.5% 5%  
17 0.7% 3%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations