Opinion Poll by Ninamedia for Dnevnik, Večer, 12–14 October 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 27.3% 25.2–29.5% 24.6–30.2% 24.1–30.7% 23.1–31.8%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 22.9% 20.9–25.0% 20.4–25.6% 19.9–26.1% 19.0–27.2%
Levica 9.3% 14.0% 12.4–15.8% 12.0–16.3% 11.6–16.8% 10.9–17.7%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 10.1% 8.8–11.8% 8.4–12.2% 8.1–12.6% 7.5–13.4%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 8.6% 7.3–10.1% 7.0–10.5% 6.7–10.9% 6.2–11.6%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 8.3% 7.1–9.8% 6.8–10.2% 6.5–10.6% 5.9–11.3%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 2.9% 2.2–3.8% 2.0–4.1% 1.9–4.4% 1.6–4.9%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 2.0% 1.5–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.2–3.3% 1.0–3.8%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 1.9% 1.3–2.7% 1.2–2.9% 1.1–3.2% 0.9–3.6%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 0.9% 0.5–1.5% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–1.9% 0.3–2.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 26 25–29 24–30 24–30 22–31
Socialni demokrati 10 22 20–24 20–25 19–25 18–27
Levica 9 14 12–15 11–15 11–16 10–17
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 9 8–11 8–11 7–12 7–13
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 8 7–10 6–10 6–10 6–11
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 8 6–10 6–10 6–10 5–11
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0 0 0 0
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0 0 0 0
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 0.6% 99.8%  
23 1.1% 99.2%  
24 6% 98%  
25 30% 92% Last Result
26 17% 62% Median
27 22% 45%  
28 5% 24%  
29 11% 19%  
30 7% 7%  
31 0.5% 0.6%  
32 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.1% 100%  
18 1.3% 99.9%  
19 2% 98.6%  
20 12% 97%  
21 11% 84%  
22 41% 74% Median
23 15% 33%  
24 11% 17%  
25 5% 7%  
26 1.3% 2%  
27 0.6% 0.6%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100% Last Result
10 2% 99.9%  
11 6% 98%  
12 14% 92%  
13 17% 78%  
14 36% 61% Median
15 20% 25%  
16 4% 5%  
17 1.1% 1.3%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100%  
7 3% 99.8%  
8 23% 97%  
9 34% 74% Median
10 23% 40%  
11 13% 17%  
12 4% 5%  
13 0.7% 0.8% Last Result
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.5% 100%  
6 5% 99.5%  
7 19% 95% Last Result
8 42% 76% Median
9 21% 34%  
10 10% 12%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.8% 100% Last Result
6 15% 99.2%  
7 18% 84%  
8 35% 66% Median
9 15% 31%  
10 15% 16%  
11 1.1% 1.2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 7%  
2 0% 7%  
3 0.5% 7%  
4 6% 7%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 50 48 88% 45–50 45–51 44–52 42–53
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 39 0.2% 37–42 37–43 36–44 34–45
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 39 0.2% 37–42 37–43 36–44 34–45
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 39 0.2% 37–42 37–43 36–44 34–45
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 39 0.2% 37–42 37–43 36–44 34–45
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 43 39 0.1% 37–42 37–43 36–43 34–44
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 35 0% 34–39 33–39 32–40 32–41
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 35 0% 34–39 33–39 32–40 32–41
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 31 0% 29–34 29–35 28–36 27–37
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 31 0% 29–34 29–35 28–36 27–37
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 31 0% 29–34 29–35 28–36 27–37
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra 33 31 0% 29–34 29–35 28–36 27–37
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 22 0% 20–24 20–25 19–25 18–27

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.3% 100%  
42 0.5% 99.7%  
43 0.5% 99.2%  
44 2% 98.7%  
45 9% 96%  
46 18% 88% Majority
47 18% 69% Median
48 14% 51%  
49 22% 37%  
50 8% 15% Last Result
51 4% 7%  
52 2% 3%  
53 0.4% 0.5%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.6% 99.9%  
35 0.4% 99.3% Last Result
36 1.5% 98.9%  
37 8% 97%  
38 17% 90%  
39 24% 72% Median
40 17% 48%  
41 12% 31%  
42 10% 18%  
43 5% 9%  
44 3% 4%  
45 0.5% 0.6%  
46 0.1% 0.2% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.6% 99.9%  
35 0.4% 99.3%  
36 1.5% 98.9%  
37 8% 97%  
38 17% 90%  
39 24% 72% Median
40 17% 48%  
41 12% 31%  
42 10% 18%  
43 5% 9%  
44 3% 4%  
45 0.5% 0.6% Last Result
46 0.1% 0.2% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.6% 99.9%  
35 0.4% 99.3%  
36 1.5% 98.9%  
37 8% 97%  
38 18% 90%  
39 24% 72% Median
40 17% 48%  
41 12% 30%  
42 10% 18%  
43 5% 9%  
44 3% 4%  
45 0.5% 0.6%  
46 0.1% 0.2% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.6% 99.9%  
35 0.4% 99.3%  
36 1.5% 98.9%  
37 8% 97%  
38 18% 90%  
39 24% 72% Median
40 17% 48% Last Result
41 12% 30%  
42 10% 18%  
43 5% 9%  
44 3% 4%  
45 0.5% 0.6%  
46 0.1% 0.2% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.6% 100%  
35 1.0% 99.4%  
36 3% 98%  
37 10% 95%  
38 22% 85%  
39 16% 63% Median
40 10% 47%  
41 24% 36%  
42 7% 13%  
43 4% 6% Last Result
44 2% 2%  
45 0.4% 0.4%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 3% 99.6%  
33 3% 97%  
34 23% 94%  
35 22% 70% Median
36 12% 48%  
37 17% 37%  
38 8% 19%  
39 8% 11%  
40 3% 4%  
41 0.4% 0.8%  
42 0.4% 0.4%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 3% 99.6%  
33 3% 97%  
34 23% 94%  
35 22% 70% Median
36 12% 48%  
37 17% 37%  
38 8% 19% Last Result
39 8% 11%  
40 3% 3%  
41 0.4% 0.8%  
42 0.4% 0.4%  
43 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.9%  
27 1.1% 99.9%  
28 2% 98.8% Last Result
29 7% 97%  
30 21% 90%  
31 23% 68% Median
32 20% 46%  
33 13% 26%  
34 7% 13%  
35 3% 6%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.5% 0.6%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.9%  
27 1.1% 99.9%  
28 2% 98.8%  
29 7% 97%  
30 21% 90%  
31 23% 68% Median
32 20% 46%  
33 13% 26%  
34 7% 13%  
35 3% 6%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.5% 0.6%  
38 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
39 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.9%  
27 1.1% 99.9%  
28 2% 98.8%  
29 7% 97%  
30 21% 89%  
31 23% 68% Median
32 20% 46%  
33 13% 26%  
34 7% 13%  
35 3% 6%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.5% 0.6%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.9%  
27 1.1% 99.9%  
28 2% 98.8%  
29 7% 97%  
30 21% 89%  
31 23% 68% Median
32 20% 46%  
33 13% 26% Last Result
34 7% 13%  
35 3% 6%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.5% 0.6%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 1.3% 99.9%  
19 2% 98.6%  
20 12% 97%  
21 11% 84%  
22 41% 74% Median
23 15% 33%  
24 11% 18%  
25 5% 7% Last Result
26 1.4% 2%  
27 0.6% 0.7%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations