Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
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Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Slovenska demokratska stranka |
24.9% |
27.3% |
25.2–29.5% |
24.6–30.2% |
24.1–30.7% |
23.1–31.8% |
Socialni demokrati |
9.9% |
22.9% |
20.9–25.0% |
20.4–25.6% |
19.9–26.1% |
19.0–27.2% |
Levica |
9.3% |
14.0% |
12.4–15.8% |
12.0–16.3% |
11.6–16.8% |
10.9–17.7% |
Lista Marjana Šarca |
12.6% |
10.1% |
8.8–11.8% |
8.4–12.2% |
8.1–12.6% |
7.5–13.4% |
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati |
7.2% |
8.6% |
7.3–10.1% |
7.0–10.5% |
6.7–10.9% |
6.2–11.6% |
Stranka Alenke Bratušek |
5.1% |
8.3% |
7.1–9.8% |
6.8–10.2% |
6.5–10.6% |
5.9–11.3% |
Slovenska ljudska stranka |
2.6% |
2.9% |
2.2–3.8% |
2.0–4.1% |
1.9–4.4% |
1.6–4.9% |
Slovenska nacionalna stranka |
4.2% |
2.0% |
1.5–2.9% |
1.3–3.1% |
1.2–3.3% |
1.0–3.8% |
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije |
4.9% |
1.9% |
1.3–2.7% |
1.2–2.9% |
1.1–3.2% |
0.9–3.6% |
Stranka modernega centra |
9.7% |
0.9% |
0.5–1.5% |
0.5–1.7% |
0.4–1.9% |
0.3–2.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
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
Confidence Intervals
Slovenska demokratska stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.6% |
99.8% |
|
23 |
1.1% |
99.2% |
|
24 |
6% |
98% |
|
25 |
30% |
92% |
Last Result |
26 |
17% |
62% |
Median |
27 |
22% |
45% |
|
28 |
5% |
24% |
|
29 |
11% |
19% |
|
30 |
7% |
7% |
|
31 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
|
Socialni demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
18 |
1.3% |
99.9% |
|
19 |
2% |
98.6% |
|
20 |
12% |
97% |
|
21 |
11% |
84% |
|
22 |
41% |
74% |
Median |
23 |
15% |
33% |
|
24 |
11% |
17% |
|
25 |
5% |
7% |
|
26 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
27 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Levica
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
10 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
11 |
6% |
98% |
|
12 |
14% |
92% |
|
13 |
17% |
78% |
|
14 |
36% |
61% |
Median |
15 |
20% |
25% |
|
16 |
4% |
5% |
|
17 |
1.1% |
1.3% |
|
18 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Lista Marjana Šarca
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
7 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
8 |
23% |
97% |
|
9 |
34% |
74% |
Median |
10 |
23% |
40% |
|
11 |
13% |
17% |
|
12 |
4% |
5% |
|
13 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
Last Result |
14 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
6 |
5% |
99.5% |
|
7 |
19% |
95% |
Last Result |
8 |
42% |
76% |
Median |
9 |
21% |
34% |
|
10 |
10% |
12% |
|
11 |
2% |
2% |
|
12 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Stranka Alenke Bratušek
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.8% |
100% |
Last Result |
6 |
15% |
99.2% |
|
7 |
18% |
84% |
|
8 |
35% |
66% |
Median |
9 |
15% |
31% |
|
10 |
15% |
16% |
|
11 |
1.1% |
1.2% |
|
12 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Slovenska ljudska stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
93% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0% |
7% |
|
2 |
0% |
7% |
|
3 |
0.5% |
7% |
|
4 |
6% |
7% |
|
5 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Slovenska nacionalna stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.8% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
2 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
4 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.9% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
2 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Stranka modernega centra
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Coalitions
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Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra |
50 |
48 |
88% |
45–50 |
45–51 |
44–52 |
42–53 |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije |
35 |
39 |
0.2% |
37–42 |
37–43 |
36–44 |
34–45 |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra |
45 |
39 |
0.2% |
37–42 |
37–43 |
36–44 |
34–45 |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati |
30 |
39 |
0.2% |
37–42 |
37–43 |
36–44 |
34–45 |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra |
40 |
39 |
0.2% |
37–42 |
37–43 |
36–44 |
34–45 |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra |
43 |
39 |
0.1% |
37–42 |
37–43 |
36–43 |
34–44 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije |
43 |
35 |
0% |
34–39 |
33–39 |
32–40 |
32–41 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca |
38 |
35 |
0% |
34–39 |
33–39 |
32–40 |
32–41 |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije |
28 |
31 |
0% |
29–34 |
29–35 |
28–36 |
27–37 |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra |
38 |
31 |
0% |
29–34 |
29–35 |
28–36 |
27–37 |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca |
23 |
31 |
0% |
29–34 |
29–35 |
28–36 |
27–37 |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra |
33 |
31 |
0% |
29–34 |
29–35 |
28–36 |
27–37 |
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra |
25 |
22 |
0% |
20–24 |
20–25 |
19–25 |
18–27 |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
41 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
42 |
0.5% |
99.7% |
|
43 |
0.5% |
99.2% |
|
44 |
2% |
98.7% |
|
45 |
9% |
96% |
|
46 |
18% |
88% |
Majority |
47 |
18% |
69% |
Median |
48 |
14% |
51% |
|
49 |
22% |
37% |
|
50 |
8% |
15% |
Last Result |
51 |
4% |
7% |
|
52 |
2% |
3% |
|
53 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
54 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
33 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
34 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
35 |
0.4% |
99.3% |
Last Result |
36 |
1.5% |
98.9% |
|
37 |
8% |
97% |
|
38 |
17% |
90% |
|
39 |
24% |
72% |
Median |
40 |
17% |
48% |
|
41 |
12% |
31% |
|
42 |
10% |
18% |
|
43 |
5% |
9% |
|
44 |
3% |
4% |
|
45 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
46 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
Majority |
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
33 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
34 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
35 |
0.4% |
99.3% |
|
36 |
1.5% |
98.9% |
|
37 |
8% |
97% |
|
38 |
17% |
90% |
|
39 |
24% |
72% |
Median |
40 |
17% |
48% |
|
41 |
12% |
31% |
|
42 |
10% |
18% |
|
43 |
5% |
9% |
|
44 |
3% |
4% |
|
45 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
Last Result |
46 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
Majority |
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
31 |
0% |
100% |
|
32 |
0% |
100% |
|
33 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
34 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
35 |
0.4% |
99.3% |
|
36 |
1.5% |
98.9% |
|
37 |
8% |
97% |
|
38 |
18% |
90% |
|
39 |
24% |
72% |
Median |
40 |
17% |
48% |
|
41 |
12% |
30% |
|
42 |
10% |
18% |
|
43 |
5% |
9% |
|
44 |
3% |
4% |
|
45 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
46 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
Majority |
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
33 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
34 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
35 |
0.4% |
99.3% |
|
36 |
1.5% |
98.9% |
|
37 |
8% |
97% |
|
38 |
18% |
90% |
|
39 |
24% |
72% |
Median |
40 |
17% |
48% |
Last Result |
41 |
12% |
30% |
|
42 |
10% |
18% |
|
43 |
5% |
9% |
|
44 |
3% |
4% |
|
45 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
46 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
Majority |
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
34 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
35 |
1.0% |
99.4% |
|
36 |
3% |
98% |
|
37 |
10% |
95% |
|
38 |
22% |
85% |
|
39 |
16% |
63% |
Median |
40 |
10% |
47% |
|
41 |
24% |
36% |
|
42 |
7% |
13% |
|
43 |
4% |
6% |
Last Result |
44 |
2% |
2% |
|
45 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
46 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Majority |
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
0% |
100% |
|
31 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
32 |
3% |
99.6% |
|
33 |
3% |
97% |
|
34 |
23% |
94% |
|
35 |
22% |
70% |
Median |
36 |
12% |
48% |
|
37 |
17% |
37% |
|
38 |
8% |
19% |
|
39 |
8% |
11% |
|
40 |
3% |
4% |
|
41 |
0.4% |
0.8% |
|
42 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
0% |
100% |
|
31 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
32 |
3% |
99.6% |
|
33 |
3% |
97% |
|
34 |
23% |
94% |
|
35 |
22% |
70% |
Median |
36 |
12% |
48% |
|
37 |
17% |
37% |
|
38 |
8% |
19% |
Last Result |
39 |
8% |
11% |
|
40 |
3% |
3% |
|
41 |
0.4% |
0.8% |
|
42 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
27 |
1.1% |
99.9% |
|
28 |
2% |
98.8% |
Last Result |
29 |
7% |
97% |
|
30 |
21% |
90% |
|
31 |
23% |
68% |
Median |
32 |
20% |
46% |
|
33 |
13% |
26% |
|
34 |
7% |
13% |
|
35 |
3% |
6% |
|
36 |
2% |
3% |
|
37 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
27 |
1.1% |
99.9% |
|
28 |
2% |
98.8% |
|
29 |
7% |
97% |
|
30 |
21% |
90% |
|
31 |
23% |
68% |
Median |
32 |
20% |
46% |
|
33 |
13% |
26% |
|
34 |
7% |
13% |
|
35 |
3% |
6% |
|
36 |
2% |
3% |
|
37 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
27 |
1.1% |
99.9% |
|
28 |
2% |
98.8% |
|
29 |
7% |
97% |
|
30 |
21% |
89% |
|
31 |
23% |
68% |
Median |
32 |
20% |
46% |
|
33 |
13% |
26% |
|
34 |
7% |
13% |
|
35 |
3% |
6% |
|
36 |
2% |
3% |
|
37 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
27 |
1.1% |
99.9% |
|
28 |
2% |
98.8% |
|
29 |
7% |
97% |
|
30 |
21% |
89% |
|
31 |
23% |
68% |
Median |
32 |
20% |
46% |
|
33 |
13% |
26% |
Last Result |
34 |
7% |
13% |
|
35 |
3% |
6% |
|
36 |
2% |
3% |
|
37 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
18 |
1.3% |
99.9% |
|
19 |
2% |
98.6% |
|
20 |
12% |
97% |
|
21 |
11% |
84% |
|
22 |
41% |
74% |
Median |
23 |
15% |
33% |
|
24 |
11% |
18% |
|
25 |
5% |
7% |
Last Result |
26 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
27 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ninamedia
- Commissioner(s): Dnevnik, Večer
- Fieldwork period: 12–14 October 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 700
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.72%