Opinion Poll by Ninamedia for Dnevnik, Večer, 12–14 October 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 24.9% | 27.3% | 25.2–29.5% | 24.6–30.2% | 24.1–30.7% | 23.1–31.8% |
| Socialni demokrati | 9.9% | 22.9% | 20.9–25.0% | 20.4–25.6% | 19.9–26.1% | 19.0–27.2% |
| Levica | 9.3% | 14.0% | 12.4–15.8% | 12.0–16.3% | 11.6–16.8% | 10.9–17.7% |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 12.6% | 10.1% | 8.8–11.8% | 8.4–12.2% | 8.1–12.6% | 7.5–13.4% |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.3–10.1% | 7.0–10.5% | 6.7–10.9% | 6.2–11.6% |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5.1% | 8.3% | 7.1–9.8% | 6.8–10.2% | 6.5–10.6% | 5.9–11.3% |
| Slovenska ljudska stranka | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.2–3.8% | 2.0–4.1% | 1.9–4.4% | 1.6–4.9% |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 4.2% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.2–3.3% | 1.0–3.8% |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 4.9% | 1.9% | 1.3–2.7% | 1.2–2.9% | 1.1–3.2% | 0.9–3.6% |
| Stranka modernega centra | 9.7% | 0.9% | 0.5–1.5% | 0.5–1.7% | 0.4–1.9% | 0.3–2.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 25 | 26 | 25–29 | 24–30 | 24–30 | 22–31 |
| Socialni demokrati | 10 | 22 | 20–24 | 20–25 | 19–25 | 18–27 |
| Levica | 9 | 14 | 12–15 | 11–15 | 11–16 | 10–17 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 13 | 9 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 7–12 | 7–13 |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7 | 8 | 7–10 | 6–10 | 6–10 | 6–11 |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5 | 8 | 6–10 | 6–10 | 6–10 | 5–11 |
| Slovenska ljudska stranka | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stranka modernega centra | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 23 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 24 | 6% | 98% | |
| 25 | 30% | 92% | Last Result |
| 26 | 17% | 62% | Median |
| 27 | 22% | 45% | |
| 28 | 5% | 24% | |
| 29 | 11% | 19% | |
| 30 | 7% | 7% | |
| 31 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 1.3% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 20 | 12% | 97% | |
| 21 | 11% | 84% | |
| 22 | 41% | 74% | Median |
| 23 | 15% | 33% | |
| 24 | 11% | 17% | |
| 25 | 5% | 7% | |
| 26 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Levica
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 10 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 6% | 98% | |
| 12 | 14% | 92% | |
| 13 | 17% | 78% | |
| 14 | 36% | 61% | Median |
| 15 | 20% | 25% | |
| 16 | 4% | 5% | |
| 17 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 8 | 23% | 97% | |
| 9 | 34% | 74% | Median |
| 10 | 23% | 40% | |
| 11 | 13% | 17% | |
| 12 | 4% | 5% | |
| 13 | 0.7% | 0.8% | Last Result |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 6 | 5% | 99.5% | |
| 7 | 19% | 95% | Last Result |
| 8 | 42% | 76% | Median |
| 9 | 21% | 34% | |
| 10 | 10% | 12% | |
| 11 | 2% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Stranka Alenke Bratušek
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.8% | 100% | Last Result |
| 6 | 15% | 99.2% | |
| 7 | 18% | 84% | |
| 8 | 35% | 66% | Median |
| 9 | 15% | 31% | |
| 10 | 15% | 16% | |
| 11 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska ljudska stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 93% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 7% | |
| 3 | 0.5% | 7% | |
| 4 | 6% | 7% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska nacionalna stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Stranka modernega centra
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 50 | 48 | 88% | 45–50 | 45–51 | 44–52 | 42–53 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 35 | 39 | 0.2% | 37–42 | 37–43 | 36–44 | 34–45 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 45 | 39 | 0.2% | 37–42 | 37–43 | 36–44 | 34–45 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 30 | 39 | 0.2% | 37–42 | 37–43 | 36–44 | 34–45 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra | 40 | 39 | 0.2% | 37–42 | 37–43 | 36–44 | 34–45 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 43 | 39 | 0.1% | 37–42 | 37–43 | 36–43 | 34–44 |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 43 | 35 | 0% | 34–39 | 33–39 | 32–40 | 32–41 |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca | 38 | 35 | 0% | 34–39 | 33–39 | 32–40 | 32–41 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 28 | 31 | 0% | 29–34 | 29–35 | 28–36 | 27–37 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 38 | 31 | 0% | 29–34 | 29–35 | 28–36 | 27–37 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca | 23 | 31 | 0% | 29–34 | 29–35 | 28–36 | 27–37 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra | 33 | 31 | 0% | 29–34 | 29–35 | 28–36 | 27–37 |
| Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 25 | 22 | 0% | 20–24 | 20–25 | 19–25 | 18–27 |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 43 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 44 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 45 | 9% | 96% | |
| 46 | 18% | 88% | Majority |
| 47 | 18% | 69% | Median |
| 48 | 14% | 51% | |
| 49 | 22% | 37% | |
| 50 | 8% | 15% | Last Result |
| 51 | 4% | 7% | |
| 52 | 2% | 3% | |
| 53 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 0.4% | 99.3% | Last Result |
| 36 | 1.5% | 98.9% | |
| 37 | 8% | 97% | |
| 38 | 17% | 90% | |
| 39 | 24% | 72% | Median |
| 40 | 17% | 48% | |
| 41 | 12% | 31% | |
| 42 | 10% | 18% | |
| 43 | 5% | 9% | |
| 44 | 3% | 4% | |
| 45 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 36 | 1.5% | 98.9% | |
| 37 | 8% | 97% | |
| 38 | 17% | 90% | |
| 39 | 24% | 72% | Median |
| 40 | 17% | 48% | |
| 41 | 12% | 31% | |
| 42 | 10% | 18% | |
| 43 | 5% | 9% | |
| 44 | 3% | 4% | |
| 45 | 0.5% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 36 | 1.5% | 98.9% | |
| 37 | 8% | 97% | |
| 38 | 18% | 90% | |
| 39 | 24% | 72% | Median |
| 40 | 17% | 48% | |
| 41 | 12% | 30% | |
| 42 | 10% | 18% | |
| 43 | 5% | 9% | |
| 44 | 3% | 4% | |
| 45 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 36 | 1.5% | 98.9% | |
| 37 | 8% | 97% | |
| 38 | 18% | 90% | |
| 39 | 24% | 72% | Median |
| 40 | 17% | 48% | Last Result |
| 41 | 12% | 30% | |
| 42 | 10% | 18% | |
| 43 | 5% | 9% | |
| 44 | 3% | 4% | |
| 45 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 35 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 36 | 3% | 98% | |
| 37 | 10% | 95% | |
| 38 | 22% | 85% | |
| 39 | 16% | 63% | Median |
| 40 | 10% | 47% | |
| 41 | 24% | 36% | |
| 42 | 7% | 13% | |
| 43 | 4% | 6% | Last Result |
| 44 | 2% | 2% | |
| 45 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 33 | 3% | 97% | |
| 34 | 23% | 94% | |
| 35 | 22% | 70% | Median |
| 36 | 12% | 48% | |
| 37 | 17% | 37% | |
| 38 | 8% | 19% | |
| 39 | 8% | 11% | |
| 40 | 3% | 4% | |
| 41 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 42 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 33 | 3% | 97% | |
| 34 | 23% | 94% | |
| 35 | 22% | 70% | Median |
| 36 | 12% | 48% | |
| 37 | 17% | 37% | |
| 38 | 8% | 19% | Last Result |
| 39 | 8% | 11% | |
| 40 | 3% | 3% | |
| 41 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 42 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 2% | 98.8% | Last Result |
| 29 | 7% | 97% | |
| 30 | 21% | 90% | |
| 31 | 23% | 68% | Median |
| 32 | 20% | 46% | |
| 33 | 13% | 26% | |
| 34 | 7% | 13% | |
| 35 | 3% | 6% | |
| 36 | 2% | 3% | |
| 37 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 29 | 7% | 97% | |
| 30 | 21% | 90% | |
| 31 | 23% | 68% | Median |
| 32 | 20% | 46% | |
| 33 | 13% | 26% | |
| 34 | 7% | 13% | |
| 35 | 3% | 6% | |
| 36 | 2% | 3% | |
| 37 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 29 | 7% | 97% | |
| 30 | 21% | 89% | |
| 31 | 23% | 68% | Median |
| 32 | 20% | 46% | |
| 33 | 13% | 26% | |
| 34 | 7% | 13% | |
| 35 | 3% | 6% | |
| 36 | 2% | 3% | |
| 37 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 29 | 7% | 97% | |
| 30 | 21% | 89% | |
| 31 | 23% | 68% | Median |
| 32 | 20% | 46% | |
| 33 | 13% | 26% | Last Result |
| 34 | 7% | 13% | |
| 35 | 3% | 6% | |
| 36 | 2% | 3% | |
| 37 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 1.3% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 20 | 12% | 97% | |
| 21 | 11% | 84% | |
| 22 | 41% | 74% | Median |
| 23 | 15% | 33% | |
| 24 | 11% | 18% | |
| 25 | 5% | 7% | Last Result |
| 26 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ninamedia
- Commissioner(s): Dnevnik, Večer
- Fieldwork period: 12–14 October 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 700
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.72%