Opinion Poll by Mediana for POP TV, 1–24 October 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 27.7% 25.6–29.9% 25.0–30.5% 24.5–31.1% 23.5–32.2%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 17.1% 15.4–19.1% 15.0–19.6% 14.5–20.1% 13.8–21.0%
Levica 9.3% 13.3% 11.8–15.1% 11.4–15.6% 11.0–16.0% 10.3–16.9%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 8.3% 7.1–9.8% 6.8–10.2% 6.5–10.5% 5.9–11.3%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 7.4% 6.3–8.9% 6.0–9.3% 5.7–9.6% 5.2–10.3%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 6.0% 5.0–7.3% 4.8–7.7% 4.5–8.0% 4.1–8.7%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 3.7% 2.9–4.7% 2.7–5.0% 2.5–5.3% 2.2–5.9%
Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije 1.1% 2.7% 2.0–3.6% 1.9–3.9% 1.7–4.1% 1.4–4.6%
Piratska stranka Slovenije 2.2% 2.4% 1.8–3.3% 1.6–3.6% 1.5–3.8% 1.2–4.3%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 2.0% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.1% 1.2–3.3% 1.0–3.7%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 1.8% 1.3–2.7% 1.2–2.9% 1.1–3.1% 0.9–3.6%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 1.3% 0.9–2.0% 0.8–2.2% 0.7–2.4% 0.5–2.8%
Dobra država 1.5% 0.8% 0.5–1.5% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–1.8% 0.3–2.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 28 26–29 26–31 25–31 24–33
Socialni demokrati 10 19 15–19 15–19 14–20 14–21
Levica 9 12 12–16 12–16 11–16 11–17
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 7 7–9 7–10 7–10 6–11
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 7 7–8 6–9 6–9 5–10
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 6 5–7 4–7 4–8 0–8
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 4 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–5
Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Piratska stranka Slovenije 0 0 0 0 0–4 0–4
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0 0
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0 0 0 0
Dobra država 0 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.4% 100%  
24 0.6% 99.6%  
25 3% 99.0% Last Result
26 8% 96%  
27 6% 88%  
28 60% 82% Median
29 13% 22%  
30 3% 9%  
31 5% 7%  
32 0.3% 2%  
33 1.3% 2%  
34 0% 0.2%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.4% 100%  
14 3% 99.6%  
15 8% 97%  
16 11% 88%  
17 13% 77%  
18 5% 64%  
19 55% 59% Median
20 3% 4%  
21 0.7% 0.8%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100% Last Result
10 0.2% 99.9%  
11 3% 99.7%  
12 55% 97% Median
13 12% 41%  
14 8% 29%  
15 6% 21%  
16 13% 14%  
17 1.2% 1.4%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.3% 100%  
6 1.2% 99.7%  
7 61% 98.5% Median
8 11% 38%  
9 19% 27%  
10 6% 7%  
11 1.1% 1.2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0% Last Result

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 2% 99.9%  
6 5% 98%  
7 72% 93% Last Result, Median
8 15% 21%  
9 5% 6%  
10 0.9% 1.1%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.7% 100%  
1 0% 99.3%  
2 0% 99.3%  
3 0% 99.3%  
4 6% 99.3%  
5 9% 93% Last Result
6 71% 84% Median
7 10% 13%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 31% 100%  
1 0% 69%  
2 0% 69%  
3 0% 69%  
4 64% 69% Last Result, Median
5 5% 5%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0% 2%  
4 1.4% 2%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Piratska stranka Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratska stranka Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 5%  
2 0% 5%  
3 0% 5%  
4 5% 5%  
5 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Median
1 0% 0.4%  
2 0% 0.4%  
3 0% 0.4%  
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Dobra država

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dobra država page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 50 39 0% 37–40 36–42 35–42 34–45
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 35 0% 35–39 33–39 33–40 32–42
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 35 0% 35–39 33–39 33–40 32–42
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 33 0% 31–34 31–36 29–37 28–38
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 45 33 0% 31–34 31–36 29–37 28–38
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 33 0% 31–34 31–36 29–37 28–38
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 33 0% 31–34 31–36 29–37 28–38
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 32 0% 29–32 28–34 28–35 25–37
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 26 0% 24–26 23–28 22–29 21–30
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 38 26 0% 24–26 23–28 22–29 21–30
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 26 0% 24–26 23–28 22–29 21–30
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra 33 26 0% 24–26 23–28 22–29 21–30
Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 25 19 0% 15–19 15–19 14–20 14–21

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 2% 99.8%  
35 1.2% 98%  
36 5% 96%  
37 3% 91%  
38 15% 89%  
39 63% 73% Median
40 4% 10%  
41 1.3% 7%  
42 4% 5%  
43 0.3% 2%  
44 0.4% 1.3%  
45 1.0% 1.0%  
46 0% 0% Majority
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.9%  
33 5% 98%  
34 3% 93%  
35 55% 90% Median
36 9% 35%  
37 8% 27%  
38 8% 19%  
39 7% 11%  
40 2% 3%  
41 0.4% 1.1%  
42 0.5% 0.7%  
43 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.9%  
33 5% 98%  
34 3% 93%  
35 55% 90% Median
36 9% 35%  
37 8% 27%  
38 8% 19% Last Result
39 7% 11%  
40 2% 3%  
41 0.4% 1.1%  
42 0.5% 0.7%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 2% 99.9%  
29 1.0% 98%  
30 2% 97%  
31 7% 95%  
32 19% 89%  
33 54% 69% Median
34 8% 15%  
35 2% 7% Last Result
36 2% 5%  
37 2% 3%  
38 1.1% 1.2%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 2% 99.9%  
29 1.0% 98%  
30 2% 97%  
31 6% 95%  
32 19% 89%  
33 54% 70% Median
34 8% 16%  
35 2% 7%  
36 2% 5%  
37 2% 3%  
38 1.1% 1.2%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 2% 99.9%  
29 1.0% 98%  
30 2% 97% Last Result
31 7% 95%  
32 19% 89%  
33 54% 69% Median
34 8% 15%  
35 2% 7%  
36 2% 5%  
37 2% 3%  
38 1.1% 1.2%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 2% 99.9%  
29 1.0% 98%  
30 2% 97%  
31 6% 95%  
32 19% 89%  
33 54% 70% Median
34 8% 16%  
35 2% 7%  
36 2% 5%  
37 2% 3%  
38 1.1% 1.2%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.5% 100%  
26 0.3% 99.5%  
27 0.9% 99.2%  
28 4% 98%  
29 5% 95%  
30 7% 90%  
31 14% 83%  
32 59% 69% Median
33 4% 10%  
34 3% 5%  
35 0.6% 3%  
36 0.9% 2%  
37 1.1% 1.1%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.8% 100%  
22 3% 99.2%  
23 3% 96%  
24 10% 93%  
25 15% 84%  
26 60% 69% Median
27 3% 9%  
28 2% 6% Last Result
29 2% 4%  
30 1.4% 2%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.8% 100%  
22 3% 99.2%  
23 3% 96%  
24 9% 93%  
25 15% 84%  
26 60% 69% Median
27 3% 9%  
28 3% 6%  
29 2% 4%  
30 1.4% 2%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.8% 100%  
22 3% 99.2%  
23 3% 96% Last Result
24 10% 93%  
25 15% 84%  
26 60% 69% Median
27 3% 9%  
28 2% 6%  
29 2% 4%  
30 1.4% 2%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.8% 100%  
22 3% 99.2%  
23 3% 96%  
24 9% 93%  
25 15% 84%  
26 60% 69% Median
27 3% 9%  
28 3% 6%  
29 2% 4%  
30 1.4% 2%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.4% 100%  
14 3% 99.6%  
15 8% 97%  
16 11% 88%  
17 12% 77%  
18 5% 65%  
19 55% 60% Median
20 3% 4%  
21 1.1% 1.2%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations