Opinion Poll by Mediana for Delo, 2–4 November 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 24.5% 22.6–26.7% 22.0–27.3% 21.5–27.8% 20.6–28.9%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 20.2% 18.3–22.2% 17.8–22.8% 17.4–23.3% 16.5–24.3%
Levica 9.3% 11.3% 9.9–12.9% 9.5–13.4% 9.2–13.8% 8.5–14.7%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 9.4% 8.2–11.0% 7.8–11.4% 7.5–11.8% 6.9–12.6%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 9.3% 8.0–10.9% 7.7–11.3% 7.4–11.7% 6.8–12.5%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 5.8% 4.8–7.1% 4.5–7.4% 4.3–7.8% 3.9–8.4%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 3.0% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 2.0–4.5% 1.7–5.0%
Dobra država 1.5% 3.0% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 2.0–4.5% 1.7–5.0%
Piratska stranka Slovenije 2.2% 2.8% 2.2–3.8% 2.0–4.1% 1.8–4.3% 1.6–4.8%
Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije 1.1% 2.7% 2.0–3.6% 1.9–3.9% 1.7–4.2% 1.5–4.7%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 2.5% 1.9–3.5% 1.8–3.7% 1.6–4.0% 1.4–4.5%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 0.6% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.4% 0.1–1.8%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 0.6% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.4% 0.1–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 26 25–27 24–29 22–29 22–31
Socialni demokrati 10 23 20–23 20–23 18–23 18–24
Levica 9 9 9–12 9–12 9–13 9–15
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 9 9–11 8–13 8–13 7–13
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 9 8–10 8–11 8–11 7–13
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 6 5–6 5–7 5–8 0–8
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0 0 0–4 0–4
Dobra država 0 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–5
Piratska stranka Slovenije 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.3% 99.9%  
22 2% 99.6%  
23 1.4% 97%  
24 3% 96%  
25 7% 93% Last Result
26 70% 86% Median
27 7% 16%  
28 2% 8%  
29 4% 7%  
30 1.0% 2%  
31 1.3% 1.3%  
32 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.3% 99.9%  
18 2% 99.5%  
19 2% 97%  
20 13% 95%  
21 13% 83%  
22 4% 69%  
23 64% 65% Median
24 1.1% 1.4%  
25 0.3% 0.3%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.3% 100%  
9 64% 99.7% Last Result, Median
10 10% 36%  
11 15% 26%  
12 6% 11%  
13 3% 5%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.2% 0.5%  
16 0.2% 0.3%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 2% 99.9%  
8 7% 98%  
9 67% 91% Median
10 9% 23%  
11 7% 15%  
12 2% 7%  
13 5% 5% Last Result
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 2% 99.9% Last Result
8 13% 98%  
9 74% 85% Median
10 4% 11%  
11 4% 7%  
12 1.3% 2%  
13 1.1% 1.1%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.8% 100%  
1 0% 99.2%  
2 0% 99.2%  
3 0% 99.2%  
4 1.1% 99.2%  
5 8% 98% Last Result
6 83% 90% Median
7 4% 7%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0.2% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 0% 3%  
4 2% 3% Last Result
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Dobra država

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dobra država page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 7%  
2 0% 7%  
3 0% 7%  
4 6% 7%  
5 0.6% 0.6%  
6 0% 0%  

Piratska stranka Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratska stranka Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0% 2%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.8%  
2 0% 0.8%  
3 0% 0.8%  
4 0.6% 0.8%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.8%  
2 0% 0.8%  
3 0% 0.8%  
4 0.8% 0.8%  
5 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 50 47 87% 44–47 43–48 42–49 40–49
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 41 0.4% 38–41 37–42 37–42 35–45
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 41 0.4% 38–41 37–42 37–42 35–45
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 41 0.4% 38–41 37–42 37–42 35–45
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 41 0.4% 38–41 37–42 37–42 35–45
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 43 38 0% 35–38 35–38 34–40 31–41
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 35 0% 34–40 33–40 32–40 30–40
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 35 0% 34–40 33–40 32–40 30–40
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 32 0% 29–32 29–33 28–33 26–35
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 32 0% 29–32 29–33 28–33 26–35
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 32 0% 29–32 29–33 28–33 26–35
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra 33 32 0% 29–32 29–33 28–33 26–35
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 23 0% 20–23 20–23 18–23 18–24

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.2% 100%  
40 0.9% 99.8%  
41 0.2% 98.9%  
42 1.3% 98.7%  
43 6% 97%  
44 2% 92%  
45 3% 89%  
46 10% 87% Majority
47 69% 76% Median
48 4% 7%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.2% 0.5% Last Result
51 0.1% 0.3%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 0.7% 99.7% Last Result
36 1.2% 98.9%  
37 6% 98%  
38 1.3% 91%  
39 4% 90%  
40 7% 86%  
41 72% 79% Median
42 5% 7%  
43 1.1% 2%  
44 0.4% 1.1%  
45 0.3% 0.7%  
46 0.3% 0.4% Majority
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 0.7% 99.7%  
36 1.2% 98.9%  
37 6% 98%  
38 1.3% 91%  
39 4% 90%  
40 7% 86%  
41 72% 79% Median
42 5% 7%  
43 1.1% 2%  
44 0.4% 1.1%  
45 0.3% 0.7% Last Result
46 0.3% 0.4% Majority
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 0.7% 99.7%  
36 1.2% 98.9%  
37 6% 98%  
38 1.3% 91%  
39 4% 90%  
40 7% 86%  
41 72% 79% Median
42 5% 7%  
43 1.1% 2%  
44 0.4% 1.1%  
45 0.3% 0.7%  
46 0.3% 0.4% Majority
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 0.7% 99.7%  
36 1.2% 98.9%  
37 6% 98%  
38 1.3% 91%  
39 4% 90%  
40 7% 86% Last Result
41 72% 79% Median
42 5% 7%  
43 1.1% 2%  
44 0.4% 1.1%  
45 0.3% 0.7%  
46 0.3% 0.4% Majority
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 0.3% 99.7%  
32 1.3% 99.5%  
33 0.4% 98%  
34 2% 98%  
35 9% 96%  
36 2% 87%  
37 12% 86%  
38 70% 74% Median
39 2% 4%  
40 2% 3%  
41 0.6% 0.7%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.8%  
31 1.0% 99.5%  
32 2% 98%  
33 6% 97%  
34 3% 91%  
35 66% 88% Median
36 7% 22%  
37 2% 15%  
38 2% 14%  
39 1.5% 12%  
40 10% 10%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0.2% 0.2%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.8%  
31 1.0% 99.5%  
32 2% 98%  
33 6% 97%  
34 3% 91%  
35 66% 88% Median
36 7% 22%  
37 2% 15%  
38 2% 14% Last Result
39 1.5% 12%  
40 10% 10%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0.2% 0.2%  
43 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.2% 99.9%  
26 0.3% 99.7%  
27 1.2% 99.4%  
28 2% 98% Last Result
29 8% 97%  
30 3% 89%  
31 12% 86%  
32 66% 73% Median
33 6% 7%  
34 0.5% 1.5%  
35 0.9% 0.9%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.2% 99.9%  
26 0.3% 99.7%  
27 1.2% 99.4%  
28 2% 98%  
29 8% 97%  
30 3% 89%  
31 12% 86%  
32 66% 73% Median
33 6% 7%  
34 0.5% 1.5%  
35 0.9% 0.9%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.2% 99.9%  
26 0.3% 99.7%  
27 1.2% 99.4%  
28 2% 98%  
29 8% 97%  
30 3% 89%  
31 12% 86%  
32 66% 73% Median
33 6% 7%  
34 0.5% 1.5%  
35 0.9% 0.9%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.2% 99.9%  
26 0.3% 99.7%  
27 1.2% 99.4%  
28 2% 98%  
29 8% 97%  
30 3% 89%  
31 12% 86%  
32 66% 73% Median
33 6% 7% Last Result
34 0.5% 1.5%  
35 0.9% 0.9%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.3% 99.9%  
18 2% 99.5%  
19 2% 97%  
20 13% 95%  
21 13% 83%  
22 4% 69%  
23 64% 65% Median
24 1.1% 1.4%  
25 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations