Opinion Poll by Parsifal for Nova 24TV, 20 September–4 November 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 31.9% 31.0–32.7% 30.8–33.0% 30.6–33.2% 30.2–33.6%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 19.3% 18.6–20.0% 18.4–20.2% 18.2–20.4% 17.9–20.8%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 9.2% 8.7–9.8% 8.5–9.9% 8.4–10.0% 8.2–10.3%
Levica 9.3% 8.4% 7.9–8.9% 7.8–9.1% 7.7–9.2% 7.4–9.5%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 6.4% 6.0–6.9% 5.8–7.0% 5.7–7.1% 5.5–7.3%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 5.4% 5.0–5.8% 4.9–6.0% 4.8–6.1% 4.6–6.3%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 3.5% 3.2–3.9% 3.1–4.0% 3.0–4.1% 2.9–4.2%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 2.0% 1.8–2.3% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.4% 1.5–2.6%
Piratska stranka Slovenije 2.2% 2.0% 1.8–2.3% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.4% 1.5–2.6%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 0.9–1.8%
Dobra država 1.5% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 0.9–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 32 31–32 31–33 30–33 30–34
Socialni demokrati 10 19 18–20 18–20 18–20 18–21
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 9 9 8–10 8–10 8–10
Levica 9 8 8 8–9 7–9 7–9
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 6 5–6 5–6 5–7 5–7
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 5 5 5 4–6 4–6
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0 0 0 0–4
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0 0 0 0
Piratska stranka Slovenije 0 0 0 0 0 0
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0
Dobra država 0 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100% Last Result
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0.1% 100%  
30 4% 99.9%  
31 14% 96%  
32 75% 82% Median
33 6% 7%  
34 0.7% 0.7%  
35 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.1% 100%  
18 16% 99.9%  
19 69% 84% Median
20 14% 15%  
21 0.5% 0.5%  
22 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 7% 100%  
9 84% 93% Median
10 9% 9%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0% Last Result

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 3% 100%  
8 90% 97% Median
9 7% 7% Last Result
10 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 16% 100%  
6 79% 84% Median
7 5% 5% Last Result
8 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 3% 100%  
5 93% 97% Last Result, Median
6 4% 4%  
7 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0.4% 2%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Piratska stranka Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratska stranka Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Dobra država

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dobra država page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 41 0% 40–42 40–42 39–43 39–43
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 41 0% 40–42 39–42 39–42 39–43
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 50 39 0% 38–40 38–40 38–41 37–42
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 34 0% 33–35 33–35 33–36 33–37
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 34 0% 33–35 33–35 33–36 33–37
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 34 0% 33–35 33–35 33–35 32–36
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 34 0% 33–35 33–35 33–35 32–36
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 43 33 0% 32–34 32–34 32–35 32–36
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 28 0% 27–29 27–29 27–30 27–31
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 28 0% 27–29 27–29 27–30 27–31
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 28 0% 27–29 27–29 27–29 26–30
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra 33 28 0% 27–29 27–29 27–29 26–30
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 19 0% 18–20 18–20 18–21 18–22

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 3% 100%  
40 14% 97%  
41 69% 83% Median
42 11% 14%  
43 3% 3% Last Result
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.3% 100% Last Result
39 5% 99.6%  
40 14% 95%  
41 69% 81% Median
42 11% 12%  
43 0.8% 0.9%  
44 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.7% 100%  
38 19% 99.3%  
39 63% 80% Median
40 14% 17%  
41 3% 4%  
42 0.6% 0.6%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Majority
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.4% 100%  
33 20% 99.6%  
34 63% 79% Median
35 13% 16% Last Result
36 2% 3%  
37 0.5% 0.7%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.4% 100%  
33 20% 99.6%  
34 63% 79% Median
35 13% 16%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.5% 0.7%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0.4% 100%  
32 2% 99.6%  
33 21% 98%  
34 64% 77% Median
35 12% 14%  
36 1.4% 1.4%  
37 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.4% 100%  
32 2% 99.6%  
33 21% 98%  
34 64% 77% Median
35 12% 14%  
36 1.4% 1.4%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.3% 100%  
32 10% 99.7%  
33 71% 89% Median
34 14% 18%  
35 2% 4%  
36 2% 2%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 11% 99.8%  
28 72% 89% Last Result, Median
29 14% 17%  
30 2% 3%  
31 1.4% 2%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 11% 99.8%  
28 72% 89% Median
29 14% 17%  
30 2% 3%  
31 1.4% 2%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.8% 100%  
27 12% 99.2%  
28 72% 87% Median
29 14% 15%  
30 1.1% 1.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.8% 100%  
27 12% 99.2%  
28 72% 87% Median
29 14% 15%  
30 1.1% 1.1%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 14% 99.9%  
19 69% 86% Median
20 14% 17%  
21 0.7% 3%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.4% 0.5%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations