Opinion Poll by Ninamedia for Dnevnik, Večer, 9–11 November 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 26.9% 24.8–29.1% 24.2–29.7% 23.7–30.3% 22.7–31.4%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 22.0% 20.1–24.1% 19.5–24.7% 19.1–25.2% 18.2–26.3%
Levica 9.3% 12.9% 11.4–14.6% 10.9–15.1% 10.6–15.5% 9.9–16.4%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 11.6% 10.2–13.3% 9.7–13.7% 9.4–14.2% 8.8–15.0%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 10.4% 9.1–12.1% 8.7–12.5% 8.4–12.9% 7.8–13.7%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 6.9% 5.8–8.2% 5.5–8.6% 5.2–9.0% 4.7–9.7%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 2.7% 2.1–3.7% 1.9–4.0% 1.7–4.2% 1.5–4.7%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 1.9% 1.3–2.7% 1.2–2.9% 1.1–3.2% 0.9–3.6%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 1.9% 1.3–2.7% 1.2–2.9% 1.1–3.2% 0.9–3.6%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 0.4% 0.2–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.2–1.2% 0.1–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 26 24–28 23–29 23–29 22–30
Socialni demokrati 10 22 20–23 20–24 19–24 18–25
Levica 9 13 11–14 11–15 10–15 10–16
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 11 9–12 9–13 9–13 8–14
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 10 9–11 8–12 8–12 7–13
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 4–9
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0–4 0–4
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0 0 0 0
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0 0 0 0
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 1.3% 99.9%  
23 9% 98.6%  
24 6% 90%  
25 15% 84% Last Result
26 27% 70% Median
27 26% 43%  
28 10% 17%  
29 6% 7%  
30 1.1% 1.4%  
31 0.3% 0.3%  
32 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.3% 99.9%  
18 1.4% 99.6%  
19 2% 98%  
20 9% 96%  
21 27% 87%  
22 27% 60% Median
23 24% 34%  
24 9% 10%  
25 1.0% 1.2%  
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.4% 100% Last Result
10 3% 99.6%  
11 8% 97%  
12 24% 89%  
13 42% 65% Median
14 15% 23%  
15 6% 8%  
16 1.0% 1.1%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.5% 99.9%  
9 11% 99.4%  
10 29% 88%  
11 29% 60% Median
12 26% 31%  
13 4% 5% Last Result
14 0.5% 0.8%  
15 0.2% 0.3%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.7% 100% Last Result
8 5% 99.3%  
9 31% 94%  
10 41% 64% Median
11 17% 23%  
12 3% 5%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0.3% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 1.5% 100%  
5 14% 98.5% Last Result
6 47% 84% Median
7 31% 38%  
8 5% 6%  
9 0.9% 1.0%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 4%  
2 0% 4%  
3 0.6% 4%  
4 3% 3%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 50 49 98% 47–51 46–52 46–53 44–54
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 43 5% 40–45 40–45 39–46 38–48
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 43 5% 40–45 40–45 39–46 38–48
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 43 5% 40–45 40–45 39–46 38–48
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 43 5% 40–45 40–45 39–46 38–48
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 43 39 0% 37–41 36–41 36–42 34–44
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 37 0% 35–39 34–39 34–40 33–41
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 37 0% 35–39 34–39 34–40 33–41
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 33 0% 31–35 30–35 29–36 28–37
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 33 0% 31–35 30–35 29–36 28–37
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 33 0% 31–35 30–35 29–36 28–37
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra 33 33 0% 31–35 30–35 29–36 28–37
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 22 0% 20–23 20–24 19–24 18–25

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.3% 100%  
44 0.4% 99.7%  
45 2% 99.2%  
46 5% 98% Majority
47 12% 92%  
48 25% 80%  
49 18% 55% Median
50 21% 37% Last Result
51 11% 16%  
52 2% 5%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.8% 0.9%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.9%  
38 0.6% 99.5%  
39 3% 98.9%  
40 10% 96%  
41 22% 87%  
42 13% 65%  
43 17% 52% Median
44 16% 34%  
45 14% 19%  
46 3% 5% Majority
47 1.2% 2%  
48 0.5% 0.6%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.9%  
38 0.6% 99.5%  
39 3% 98.9%  
40 10% 96%  
41 22% 87%  
42 13% 65%  
43 17% 52% Median
44 16% 34%  
45 14% 19% Last Result
46 3% 5% Majority
47 1.2% 2%  
48 0.5% 0.6%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.9%  
38 0.6% 99.5%  
39 3% 98.9%  
40 10% 96%  
41 22% 87%  
42 13% 65%  
43 17% 52% Median
44 16% 34%  
45 14% 19%  
46 3% 5% Majority
47 1.2% 2%  
48 0.5% 0.6%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.9%  
38 0.6% 99.5%  
39 3% 98.9%  
40 10% 96% Last Result
41 22% 87%  
42 13% 65%  
43 17% 52% Median
44 16% 34%  
45 14% 19%  
46 3% 5% Majority
47 1.2% 2%  
48 0.5% 0.6%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.8% 99.9%  
35 1.1% 99.1%  
36 4% 98%  
37 8% 94%  
38 18% 86%  
39 34% 68% Median
40 19% 33%  
41 10% 14%  
42 3% 5%  
43 0.9% 1.5% Last Result
44 0.4% 0.6%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.4% 99.9%  
33 2% 99.5%  
34 6% 98%  
35 11% 92%  
36 17% 81%  
37 20% 64% Median
38 32% 44%  
39 7% 12%  
40 3% 5%  
41 1.1% 2%  
42 0.3% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
44 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.4% 99.9%  
33 2% 99.5%  
34 6% 98%  
35 11% 92%  
36 17% 81%  
37 20% 64% Median
38 32% 44% Last Result
39 7% 12%  
40 3% 5%  
41 1.1% 2%  
42 0.3% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.8% 99.8% Last Result
29 2% 99.0%  
30 5% 97%  
31 11% 91%  
32 27% 80%  
33 18% 53% Median
34 22% 35%  
35 10% 13%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.6% 0.7%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.8% 99.8%  
29 2% 99.0%  
30 5% 97%  
31 11% 91%  
32 27% 80%  
33 18% 53% Median
34 22% 35%  
35 10% 13%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.6% 0.7%  
38 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
39 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.8% 99.8%  
29 2% 99.0%  
30 5% 97%  
31 11% 91%  
32 27% 80%  
33 18% 53% Median
34 22% 35%  
35 10% 13%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.6% 0.7%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.8% 99.8%  
29 2% 99.0%  
30 5% 97%  
31 11% 91%  
32 27% 80%  
33 18% 53% Last Result, Median
34 22% 35%  
35 10% 13%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.6% 0.7%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.3% 99.9%  
18 1.4% 99.6%  
19 2% 98%  
20 9% 96%  
21 27% 87%  
22 27% 60% Median
23 24% 34%  
24 9% 10%  
25 1.0% 1.2% Last Result
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations