Opinion Poll by Mediana for POP TV, 1–28 November 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 26.1% 24.0–28.3% 23.5–28.9% 23.0–29.4% 22.0–30.5%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 17.9% 16.1–19.8% 15.7–20.4% 15.2–20.9% 14.4–21.9%
Levica 9.3% 12.3% 10.8–14.0% 10.4–14.4% 10.0–14.9% 9.4–15.7%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 8.6% 7.4–10.1% 7.0–10.5% 6.7–10.9% 6.2–11.6%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 7.7% 6.6–9.2% 6.3–9.6% 6.0–10.0% 5.5–10.7%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 7.0% 5.9–8.4% 5.6–8.8% 5.4–9.2% 4.9–9.9%
Piratska stranka Slovenije 2.2% 4.5% 3.6–5.7% 3.4–6.0% 3.2–6.3% 2.8–6.9%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 3.2% 2.5–4.3% 2.3–4.6% 2.2–4.8% 1.9–5.4%
Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije 1.1% 3.0% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.2% 1.9–4.5% 1.7–5.0%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 1.5% 1.1–2.3% 1.0–2.6% 0.9–2.8% 0.7–3.2%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 1.5% 1.1–2.3% 1.0–2.6% 0.9–2.8% 0.7–3.2%
Dobra država 1.5% 1.5% 1.1–2.3% 1.0–2.6% 0.9–2.8% 0.7–3.2%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 1.1% 0.8–1.8% 0.7–2.0% 0.6–2.2% 0.4–2.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 28 26–30 25–30 25–30 23–31
Socialni demokrati 10 18 16–20 16–22 15–22 15–22
Levica 9 13 11–14 10–15 10–15 9–17
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 8 7–10 7–11 7–11 6–12
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 7 6–10 6–10 6–10 5–11
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 7 6–8 5–8 5–8 4–10
Piratska stranka Slovenije 0 4 0–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije 0 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0 0 0 0
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dobra država 0 0 0 0 0 0
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.3% 99.9%  
23 1.2% 99.6%  
24 0.8% 98%  
25 4% 98% Last Result
26 12% 93%  
27 8% 82%  
28 56% 73% Median
29 7% 17%  
30 8% 10%  
31 1.3% 2%  
32 0.1% 0.4%  
33 0.1% 0.3%  
34 0% 0.2%  
35 0.2% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.2% 99.9%  
15 3% 99.8%  
16 10% 97%  
17 33% 87%  
18 11% 54% Median
19 32% 43%  
20 3% 11%  
21 1.2% 7%  
22 6% 6%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 1.0% 99.9% Last Result
10 8% 98.9%  
11 15% 90%  
12 10% 75%  
13 38% 65% Median
14 22% 27%  
15 3% 5%  
16 0.5% 2%  
17 1.1% 1.2%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 1.4% 100%  
7 11% 98.5%  
8 43% 88% Median
9 21% 45%  
10 15% 24%  
11 8% 9%  
12 0.7% 0.7%  
13 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
14 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.7% 100%  
6 33% 99.3%  
7 22% 67% Last Result, Median
8 15% 44%  
9 11% 29%  
10 18% 18%  
11 0.5% 0.6%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.8% 100%  
5 5% 99.2% Last Result
6 33% 94%  
7 42% 62% Median
8 18% 20%  
9 1.1% 2%  
10 1.2% 1.3%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Piratska stranka Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratska stranka Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 20% 100% Last Result
1 0% 80%  
2 0% 80%  
3 0% 80%  
4 47% 80% Median
5 20% 32%  
6 12% 13%  
7 0.4% 0.5%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 61% 100% Median
1 0% 39%  
2 0% 39%  
3 0% 39%  
4 35% 39%  
5 3% 3% Last Result
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 9%  
2 0% 9%  
3 0% 9%  
4 8% 9%  
5 0.3% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Dobra država

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dobra država page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 50 43 14% 39–46 39–47 38–48 37–49
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 39 0% 35–40 34–40 33–42 31–43
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 36 0% 35–39 34–39 33–40 31–41
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 35 0% 33–39 32–40 32–40 30–41
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 35 0% 33–39 32–40 32–40 30–41
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 43 36 0% 32–38 31–40 30–40 29–40
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 35 0% 32–37 31–39 31–39 30–40
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 35 0% 32–37 31–39 31–39 30–40
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 28 0% 25–31 24–32 23–33 22–33
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 28 0% 25–31 24–32 23–33 22–33
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 27 0% 24–29 24–31 23–31 22–32
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra 33 27 0% 24–29 24–31 23–31 22–32
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 19 0% 16–23 16–23 15–24 15–24

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.2% 100%  
37 1.3% 99.8%  
38 3% 98.5%  
39 7% 95%  
40 5% 88% Median
41 2% 83%  
42 25% 82%  
43 35% 56%  
44 6% 22%  
45 2% 15%  
46 6% 14% Majority
47 3% 7%  
48 3% 4%  
49 0.4% 0.7%  
50 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
51 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.4% 99.9%  
32 0.7% 99.5%  
33 2% 98.8%  
34 3% 97%  
35 7% 94%  
36 21% 86% Median
37 4% 65%  
38 6% 61%  
39 23% 55%  
40 29% 33%  
41 0.8% 4%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.5% 0.8% Last Result
44 0% 0.2%  
45 0.2% 0.2%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 0.5% 99.6%  
32 1.2% 99.1%  
33 3% 98%  
34 5% 95%  
35 14% 90%  
36 46% 76% Median
37 6% 30%  
38 4% 24% Last Result
39 16% 20%  
40 4% 5%  
41 0.5% 0.9%  
42 0.1% 0.4%  
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 0.1% 99.9%  
30 0.7% 99.8%  
31 0.7% 99.1%  
32 4% 98%  
33 9% 94% Median
34 2% 85%  
35 34% 83% Last Result
36 6% 49%  
37 27% 42%  
38 2% 16%  
39 6% 13%  
40 6% 7%  
41 0.3% 0.7%  
42 0.4% 0.4%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 0.1% 99.9%  
30 0.7% 99.8%  
31 0.7% 99.1%  
32 4% 98%  
33 9% 94% Median
34 2% 85%  
35 34% 83%  
36 6% 49%  
37 27% 42%  
38 2% 16%  
39 6% 13%  
40 6% 7%  
41 0.3% 0.7%  
42 0.4% 0.4%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 1.0% 100%  
30 4% 99.0%  
31 2% 95%  
32 22% 94%  
33 5% 71% Median
34 5% 66%  
35 6% 62%  
36 18% 56%  
37 24% 37%  
38 7% 14%  
39 0.5% 7%  
40 6% 6%  
41 0.1% 0.5%  
42 0.2% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
44 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.8%  
30 0.9% 99.6% Last Result
31 8% 98.7%  
32 5% 91%  
33 33% 86% Median
34 2% 54%  
35 30% 51%  
36 10% 21%  
37 3% 12%  
38 2% 8%  
39 6% 6%  
40 0.6% 0.7%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.8%  
30 0.9% 99.6%  
31 8% 98.7%  
32 5% 91%  
33 33% 86% Median
34 2% 54%  
35 30% 51%  
36 10% 21%  
37 3% 12%  
38 2% 8%  
39 6% 6%  
40 0.6% 0.7% Last Result
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100%  
22 0.7% 99.9%  
23 2% 99.3%  
24 2% 97%  
25 17% 95%  
26 10% 77% Median
27 8% 67%  
28 10% 60% Last Result
29 11% 50%  
30 4% 38%  
31 27% 35%  
32 4% 7%  
33 3% 3%  
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100%  
22 0.7% 99.9%  
23 2% 99.3%  
24 2% 97%  
25 17% 95%  
26 10% 77% Median
27 8% 67%  
28 10% 60%  
29 11% 50%  
30 4% 38%  
31 27% 35%  
32 4% 7%  
33 3% 3%  
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.8% 99.9%  
23 2% 99.1% Last Result
24 9% 97%  
25 19% 88%  
26 12% 69% Median
27 29% 57%  
28 10% 28%  
29 10% 18%  
30 1.4% 8%  
31 6% 7%  
32 0.4% 0.5%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.8% 99.9%  
23 2% 99.1%  
24 9% 97%  
25 19% 88%  
26 12% 69% Median
27 29% 57%  
28 10% 28%  
29 10% 18%  
30 1.4% 8%  
31 6% 7%  
32 0.4% 0.5%  
33 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
34 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 3% 99.8%  
16 9% 97%  
17 24% 89%  
18 10% 65% Median
19 5% 54%  
20 4% 49%  
21 10% 45%  
22 7% 35%  
23 25% 28%  
24 3% 3%  
25 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
26 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations