Opinion Poll by Mediana for RTV SLO, 29 November–2 December 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 23.7% 22.1–25.5% 21.6–26.0% 21.2–26.4% 20.4–27.3%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 17.1% 15.7–18.7% 15.3–19.2% 15.0–19.6% 14.3–20.4%
Levica 9.3% 12.1% 10.9–13.5% 10.6–13.9% 10.3–14.3% 9.7–15.0%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 12.0% 10.8–13.4% 10.5–13.8% 10.2–14.2% 9.6–14.9%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 8.6% 7.6–9.8% 7.3–10.2% 7.0–10.5% 6.6–11.1%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 6.3% 5.4–7.4% 5.1–7.7% 4.9–7.9% 4.5–8.5%
Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije 1.1% 3.1% 2.5–4.0% 2.4–4.2% 2.2–4.4% 2.0–4.8%
Piratska stranka Slovenije 2.2% 2.9% 2.4–3.7% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.6%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 2.4% 1.9–3.2% 1.8–3.4% 1.7–3.6% 1.4–4.0%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.7%
Dobra država 1.5% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.5–3.1% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 2.0% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 1.2% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.9% 0.7–2.0% 0.5–2.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 26 24–28 23–28 22–29 22–30
Socialni demokrati 10 18 16–20 16–21 16–21 15–21
Levica 9 14 12–15 11–15 11–15 10–16
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 12 12–14 11–15 11–15 10–15
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 7 7–10 7–11 7–11 7–12
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 7 6–7 5–8 5–9 5–9
Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije 0 0 0 0–4 0–5 0–5
Piratska stranka Slovenije 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0 0 0 0
Dobra država 0 0 0 0 0 0
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0 0 0 0
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.3% 100%  
22 2% 99.7%  
23 5% 97%  
24 3% 92%  
25 13% 89% Last Result
26 58% 77% Median
27 4% 19%  
28 12% 15%  
29 2% 3%  
30 1.1% 1.2%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.6% 99.9%  
16 12% 99.3%  
17 7% 87%  
18 63% 80% Median
19 5% 17%  
20 2% 12%  
21 10% 10%  
22 0.2% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100% Last Result
10 2% 99.9%  
11 7% 98%  
12 15% 91%  
13 24% 77%  
14 41% 53% Median
15 11% 12%  
16 0.4% 0.6%  
17 0.1% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 0.8% 99.8%  
11 7% 99.0%  
12 60% 92% Median
13 6% 32% Last Result
14 19% 26%  
15 7% 7%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 52% 99.9% Last Result, Median
8 24% 48%  
9 12% 24%  
10 6% 12%  
11 6% 6%  
12 0.5% 0.5%  
13 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100%  
5 9% 99.7% Last Result
6 27% 91%  
7 57% 64% Median
8 2% 7%  
9 4% 4%  
10 0% 0%  

Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 8%  
2 0% 8%  
3 0% 8%  
4 4% 8%  
5 4% 4%  
6 0% 0%  

Piratska stranka Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratska stranka Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.7%  
2 0% 0.7%  
3 0% 0.7%  
4 0.5% 0.7%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.5%  
2 0% 0.5%  
3 0% 0.5%  
4 0.5% 0.5%  
5 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Dobra država

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dobra država page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 50 44 29% 43–48 43–50 42–51 41–52
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 37 0.1% 37–42 36–43 36–44 36–45
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 37 0.1% 37–42 36–43 36–44 36–45
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 37 0.1% 37–42 36–43 36–44 36–45
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 37 0.1% 37–42 36–43 36–44 36–45
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 38 0% 37–40 35–41 34–41 34–43
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 43 37 0% 35–40 34–40 34–41 33–43
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 38 0% 37–40 35–41 34–41 34–43
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 30 0% 28–33 28–33 28–34 27–34
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 30 0% 28–33 28–33 28–34 27–34
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 30 0% 28–33 28–33 28–34 27–34
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra 33 30 0% 28–33 28–33 28–34 27–34
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 18 0% 16–20 16–21 16–21 15–21

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.4% 99.9%  
42 4% 99.5%  
43 12% 95%  
44 36% 84% Median
45 19% 48%  
46 5% 29% Majority
47 3% 24%  
48 11% 20%  
49 3% 9%  
50 2% 5% Last Result
51 1.2% 3%  
52 2% 2%  
53 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
36 8% 99.5%  
37 43% 91% Median
38 4% 48%  
39 18% 44%  
40 6% 26%  
41 10% 21%  
42 3% 11%  
43 4% 8%  
44 3% 4%  
45 0.9% 1.0%  
46 0% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.9%  
36 8% 99.5%  
37 43% 91% Median
38 4% 48%  
39 18% 44%  
40 6% 26%  
41 10% 21%  
42 3% 11%  
43 4% 8%  
44 3% 4%  
45 0.9% 1.0% Last Result
46 0% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.9%  
36 8% 99.5%  
37 43% 91% Median
38 4% 48%  
39 18% 44%  
40 6% 26%  
41 10% 21%  
42 3% 11%  
43 4% 8%  
44 3% 4%  
45 0.9% 1.0%  
46 0% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.9%  
36 8% 99.5%  
37 43% 91% Median
38 4% 48%  
39 18% 44%  
40 6% 26% Last Result
41 10% 21%  
42 3% 11%  
43 4% 8%  
44 3% 4%  
45 0.9% 1.0%  
46 0% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 3% 99.7%  
35 3% 97%  
36 4% 94%  
37 10% 91%  
38 41% 81% Median
39 6% 40%  
40 26% 35%  
41 7% 9%  
42 1.0% 2%  
43 1.0% 1.2% Last Result
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.3% 99.9%  
33 0.4% 99.7%  
34 5% 99.3%  
35 10% 94%  
36 8% 84%  
37 40% 76% Median
38 19% 37%  
39 4% 18%  
40 11% 14%  
41 0.6% 3%  
42 0.4% 2%  
43 2% 2% Last Result
44 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 3% 99.7%  
35 3% 97%  
36 4% 94%  
37 10% 91%  
38 41% 81% Last Result, Median
39 6% 40%  
40 26% 35%  
41 7% 9%  
42 1.0% 2%  
43 1.0% 1.2%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100%  
26 0.4% 99.9%  
27 0.2% 99.6%  
28 11% 99.4% Last Result
29 8% 89%  
30 42% 81% Median
31 4% 39%  
32 18% 35%  
33 12% 17%  
34 4% 4%  
35 0.3% 0.4%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100%  
26 0.4% 99.9%  
27 0.2% 99.6%  
28 11% 99.4%  
29 8% 89%  
30 42% 81% Median
31 4% 39%  
32 18% 35%  
33 12% 17%  
34 4% 4%  
35 0.3% 0.4%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.4% 99.9%  
27 0.2% 99.6%  
28 11% 99.4%  
29 8% 89%  
30 42% 81% Median
31 4% 39%  
32 18% 35%  
33 12% 17%  
34 4% 4%  
35 0.3% 0.4%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100%  
26 0.4% 99.9%  
27 0.2% 99.6%  
28 11% 99.4%  
29 8% 89%  
30 42% 81% Median
31 4% 39%  
32 18% 35%  
33 12% 17% Last Result
34 4% 4%  
35 0.3% 0.4%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.6% 99.9%  
16 12% 99.3%  
17 7% 87%  
18 63% 80% Median
19 5% 17%  
20 2% 12%  
21 10% 10%  
22 0.2% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations