Opinion Poll by Mediana for RTV SLO, 29 November–2 December 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 24.9% | 23.7% | 22.1–25.5% | 21.6–26.0% | 21.2–26.4% | 20.4–27.3% |
| Socialni demokrati | 9.9% | 17.1% | 15.7–18.7% | 15.3–19.2% | 15.0–19.6% | 14.3–20.4% |
| Levica | 9.3% | 12.1% | 10.9–13.5% | 10.6–13.9% | 10.3–14.3% | 9.7–15.0% |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 12.6% | 12.0% | 10.8–13.4% | 10.5–13.8% | 10.2–14.2% | 9.6–14.9% |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.6–9.8% | 7.3–10.2% | 7.0–10.5% | 6.6–11.1% |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.4–7.4% | 5.1–7.7% | 4.9–7.9% | 4.5–8.5% |
| Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije | 1.1% | 3.1% | 2.5–4.0% | 2.4–4.2% | 2.2–4.4% | 2.0–4.8% |
| Piratska stranka Slovenije | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.4–3.7% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.8–4.6% |
| Slovenska ljudska stranka | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.9–3.2% | 1.8–3.4% | 1.7–3.6% | 1.4–4.0% |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.8–3.0% | 1.6–3.2% | 1.5–3.4% | 1.3–3.7% |
| Dobra država | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.5–3.1% | 1.4–3.2% | 1.2–3.6% |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 4.9% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.1–3.4% |
| Stranka modernega centra | 9.7% | 1.2% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.9% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.5–2.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 25 | 26 | 24–28 | 23–28 | 22–29 | 22–30 |
| Socialni demokrati | 10 | 18 | 16–20 | 16–21 | 16–21 | 15–21 |
| Levica | 9 | 14 | 12–15 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 10–16 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 13 | 12 | 12–14 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 10–15 |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7 | 7 | 7–10 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 7–12 |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5 | 7 | 6–7 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Piratska stranka Slovenije | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Slovenska ljudska stranka | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dobra država | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stranka modernega centra | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 22 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 23 | 5% | 97% | |
| 24 | 3% | 92% | |
| 25 | 13% | 89% | Last Result |
| 26 | 58% | 77% | Median |
| 27 | 4% | 19% | |
| 28 | 12% | 15% | |
| 29 | 2% | 3% | |
| 30 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 12% | 99.3% | |
| 17 | 7% | 87% | |
| 18 | 63% | 80% | Median |
| 19 | 5% | 17% | |
| 20 | 2% | 12% | |
| 21 | 10% | 10% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Levica
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 10 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 7% | 98% | |
| 12 | 15% | 91% | |
| 13 | 24% | 77% | |
| 14 | 41% | 53% | Median |
| 15 | 11% | 12% | |
| 16 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 11 | 7% | 99.0% | |
| 12 | 60% | 92% | Median |
| 13 | 6% | 32% | Last Result |
| 14 | 19% | 26% | |
| 15 | 7% | 7% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 52% | 99.9% | Last Result, Median |
| 8 | 24% | 48% | |
| 9 | 12% | 24% | |
| 10 | 6% | 12% | |
| 11 | 6% | 6% | |
| 12 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Stranka Alenke Bratušek
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 5 | 9% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 6 | 27% | 91% | |
| 7 | 57% | 64% | Median |
| 8 | 2% | 7% | |
| 9 | 4% | 4% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 92% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 8% | |
| 4 | 4% | 8% | |
| 5 | 4% | 4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Piratska stranka Slovenije
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratska stranka Slovenije page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.3% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska ljudska stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.5% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska nacionalna stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Dobra država
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dobra država page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Stranka modernega centra
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 50 | 44 | 29% | 43–48 | 43–50 | 42–51 | 41–52 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 35 | 37 | 0.1% | 37–42 | 36–43 | 36–44 | 36–45 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 45 | 37 | 0.1% | 37–42 | 36–43 | 36–44 | 36–45 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 30 | 37 | 0.1% | 37–42 | 36–43 | 36–44 | 36–45 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra | 40 | 37 | 0.1% | 37–42 | 36–43 | 36–44 | 36–45 |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 43 | 38 | 0% | 37–40 | 35–41 | 34–41 | 34–43 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 43 | 37 | 0% | 35–40 | 34–40 | 34–41 | 33–43 |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca | 38 | 38 | 0% | 37–40 | 35–41 | 34–41 | 34–43 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 28 | 30 | 0% | 28–33 | 28–33 | 28–34 | 27–34 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 38 | 30 | 0% | 28–33 | 28–33 | 28–34 | 27–34 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca | 23 | 30 | 0% | 28–33 | 28–33 | 28–34 | 27–34 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra | 33 | 30 | 0% | 28–33 | 28–33 | 28–34 | 27–34 |
| Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 25 | 18 | 0% | 16–20 | 16–21 | 16–21 | 15–21 |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 43 | 12% | 95% | |
| 44 | 36% | 84% | Median |
| 45 | 19% | 48% | |
| 46 | 5% | 29% | Majority |
| 47 | 3% | 24% | |
| 48 | 11% | 20% | |
| 49 | 3% | 9% | |
| 50 | 2% | 5% | Last Result |
| 51 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 52 | 2% | 2% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.4% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 36 | 8% | 99.5% | |
| 37 | 43% | 91% | Median |
| 38 | 4% | 48% | |
| 39 | 18% | 44% | |
| 40 | 6% | 26% | |
| 41 | 10% | 21% | |
| 42 | 3% | 11% | |
| 43 | 4% | 8% | |
| 44 | 3% | 4% | |
| 45 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 8% | 99.5% | |
| 37 | 43% | 91% | Median |
| 38 | 4% | 48% | |
| 39 | 18% | 44% | |
| 40 | 6% | 26% | |
| 41 | 10% | 21% | |
| 42 | 3% | 11% | |
| 43 | 4% | 8% | |
| 44 | 3% | 4% | |
| 45 | 0.9% | 1.0% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 8% | 99.5% | |
| 37 | 43% | 91% | Median |
| 38 | 4% | 48% | |
| 39 | 18% | 44% | |
| 40 | 6% | 26% | |
| 41 | 10% | 21% | |
| 42 | 3% | 11% | |
| 43 | 4% | 8% | |
| 44 | 3% | 4% | |
| 45 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 8% | 99.5% | |
| 37 | 43% | 91% | Median |
| 38 | 4% | 48% | |
| 39 | 18% | 44% | |
| 40 | 6% | 26% | Last Result |
| 41 | 10% | 21% | |
| 42 | 3% | 11% | |
| 43 | 4% | 8% | |
| 44 | 3% | 4% | |
| 45 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 35 | 3% | 97% | |
| 36 | 4% | 94% | |
| 37 | 10% | 91% | |
| 38 | 41% | 81% | Median |
| 39 | 6% | 40% | |
| 40 | 26% | 35% | |
| 41 | 7% | 9% | |
| 42 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 43 | 1.0% | 1.2% | Last Result |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 34 | 5% | 99.3% | |
| 35 | 10% | 94% | |
| 36 | 8% | 84% | |
| 37 | 40% | 76% | Median |
| 38 | 19% | 37% | |
| 39 | 4% | 18% | |
| 40 | 11% | 14% | |
| 41 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 42 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 43 | 2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 35 | 3% | 97% | |
| 36 | 4% | 94% | |
| 37 | 10% | 91% | |
| 38 | 41% | 81% | Last Result, Median |
| 39 | 6% | 40% | |
| 40 | 26% | 35% | |
| 41 | 7% | 9% | |
| 42 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 43 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 28 | 11% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 29 | 8% | 89% | |
| 30 | 42% | 81% | Median |
| 31 | 4% | 39% | |
| 32 | 18% | 35% | |
| 33 | 12% | 17% | |
| 34 | 4% | 4% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 28 | 11% | 99.4% | |
| 29 | 8% | 89% | |
| 30 | 42% | 81% | Median |
| 31 | 4% | 39% | |
| 32 | 18% | 35% | |
| 33 | 12% | 17% | |
| 34 | 4% | 4% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 28 | 11% | 99.4% | |
| 29 | 8% | 89% | |
| 30 | 42% | 81% | Median |
| 31 | 4% | 39% | |
| 32 | 18% | 35% | |
| 33 | 12% | 17% | |
| 34 | 4% | 4% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 28 | 11% | 99.4% | |
| 29 | 8% | 89% | |
| 30 | 42% | 81% | Median |
| 31 | 4% | 39% | |
| 32 | 18% | 35% | |
| 33 | 12% | 17% | Last Result |
| 34 | 4% | 4% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 12% | 99.3% | |
| 17 | 7% | 87% | |
| 18 | 63% | 80% | Median |
| 19 | 5% | 17% | |
| 20 | 2% | 12% | |
| 21 | 10% | 10% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Mediana
- Commissioner(s): RTV SLO
- Fieldwork period: 29 November–2 December 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1021
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.26%