Opinion Poll by Mediana for POP TV, 17–19 January 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 27.2% 25.1–29.5% 24.5–30.2% 23.9–30.7% 22.9–31.9%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 18.8% 17.0–20.9% 16.5–21.5% 16.0–22.0% 15.2–23.0%
Levica 9.3% 12.6% 11.1–14.4% 10.7–14.9% 10.3–15.4% 9.6–16.3%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 10.5% 9.1–12.2% 8.7–12.7% 8.4–13.1% 7.7–13.9%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 7.6% 6.4–9.1% 6.1–9.5% 5.8–9.9% 5.3–10.6%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 7.1% 6.0–8.6% 5.7–9.0% 5.4–9.4% 4.9–10.1%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 6.1% 5.0–7.5% 4.7–7.8% 4.5–8.2% 4.0–8.9%
Piratska stranka Slovenije 2.2% 2.7% 2.1–3.7% 1.9–4.0% 1.7–4.3% 1.5–4.8%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 2.0% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.2–3.4% 0.9–3.8%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 1.7% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.8% 0.9–3.0% 0.7–3.4%
Dobra država 1.5% 1.7% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.8% 0.9–3.0% 0.7–3.4%
Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije 1.1% 1.5% 1.1–2.3% 0.9–2.6% 0.8–2.8% 0.7–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 28 26–29 25–30 24–31 23–31
Socialni demokrati 10 17 16–20 16–21 16–22 14–22
Levica 9 13 11–14 11–14 10–15 10–15
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 10 9–12 9–14 8–14 7–14
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 8 6–9 6–9 5–9 5–10
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 6 5–8 5–8 5–9 5–10
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 6 5–7 5–7 4–7 4–8
Piratska stranka Slovenije 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0 0 0 0
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dobra država 0 0 0 0 0 0
Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije 0 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100%  
22 0.2% 99.9%  
23 1.1% 99.7%  
24 2% 98.6%  
25 3% 96% Last Result
26 28% 93%  
27 11% 65%  
28 35% 54% Median
29 9% 18%  
30 6% 10%  
31 4% 4%  
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 1.2% 100%  
15 0.9% 98.8%  
16 10% 98%  
17 42% 87% Median
18 12% 45%  
19 5% 33%  
20 22% 28%  
21 2% 7%  
22 4% 5%  
23 0.1% 0.3%  
24 0.3% 0.3%  
25 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
10 2% 99.6%  
11 15% 97%  
12 22% 82%  
13 49% 60% Median
14 7% 11%  
15 4% 4%  
16 0.2% 0.4%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.5% 100%  
8 4% 99.5%  
9 36% 95%  
10 25% 59% Median
11 21% 34%  
12 7% 13%  
13 0.7% 7% Last Result
14 6% 6%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 3% 99.9%  
6 19% 97%  
7 12% 77% Last Result
8 43% 65% Median
9 20% 22%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100%  
5 26% 99.7% Last Result
6 43% 74% Median
7 17% 30%  
8 11% 14%  
9 2% 3%  
10 0.6% 0.6%  
11 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 5% 99.9% Last Result
5 32% 95%  
6 26% 63% Median
7 35% 37%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.2% 0.3%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Piratska stranka Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratska stranka Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 1.4%  
2 0% 1.4%  
3 0% 1.4%  
4 1.3% 1.4%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Dobra država

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dobra država page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 37 0% 35–41 34–42 34–42 32–42
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 37 0% 35–41 34–42 34–42 32–42
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 36 0% 34–39 33–39 32–39 32–40
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 36 0% 34–39 33–39 32–39 32–40
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 28 0% 26–31 26–32 25–32 24–34
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 28 0% 26–31 26–32 25–32 24–34

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.4% 100%  
32 0.3% 99.6%  
33 1.5% 99.3%  
34 3% 98%  
35 6% 95%  
36 17% 89%  
37 35% 72%  
38 13% 37% Median
39 5% 24%  
40 7% 20%  
41 7% 13%  
42 6% 6%  
43 0% 0.1% Last Result
44 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.4% 100%  
32 0.3% 99.6%  
33 2% 99.3%  
34 3% 98%  
35 6% 95%  
36 17% 89%  
37 35% 72%  
38 13% 37% Last Result, Median
39 5% 24%  
40 7% 20%  
41 7% 13%  
42 6% 6%  
43 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.3% 100%  
32 3% 99.6%  
33 3% 97%  
34 32% 93%  
35 10% 61% Last Result, Median
36 14% 52%  
37 15% 38%  
38 6% 22%  
39 15% 17%  
40 1.2% 2%  
41 0.2% 0.5%  
42 0.3% 0.3%  
43 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0.4% 99.9%  
32 3% 99.5%  
33 3% 96%  
34 32% 93%  
35 10% 61% Median
36 14% 52%  
37 15% 38%  
38 6% 22%  
39 15% 17%  
40 1.2% 2%  
41 0.2% 0.5%  
42 0.3% 0.3%  
43 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 1.0% 100%  
25 3% 98.9%  
26 30% 96%  
27 8% 66% Median
28 18% 58% Last Result
29 7% 40%  
30 16% 33%  
31 11% 17%  
32 5% 6%  
33 0.6% 1.1%  
34 0.3% 0.5%  
35 0.3% 0.3%  
36 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 1.1% 100%  
25 3% 98.8%  
26 30% 96%  
27 8% 66% Median
28 18% 58%  
29 7% 40%  
30 16% 33%  
31 11% 17%  
32 5% 6%  
33 0.5% 1.1%  
34 0.2% 0.5%  
35 0.3% 0.3%  
36 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations