Opinion Poll by Mediana for Delo, 7–10 February 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Gibanje Svoboda 0.0% 25.6% 23.6–27.8% 23.0–28.4% 22.6–29.0% 21.6–30.0%
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 19.2% 17.4–21.2% 16.9–21.7% 16.4–22.2% 15.6–23.2%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 9.3% 8.0–10.8% 7.7–11.3% 7.4–11.7% 6.8–12.4%
Levica 9.3% 7.0% 5.9–8.4% 5.6–8.8% 5.4–9.2% 4.9–9.9%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 6.8% 5.7–8.1% 5.4–8.5% 5.1–8.9% 4.7–9.6%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 4.8% 3.9–6.0% 3.7–6.3% 3.4–6.6% 3.1–7.2%
Povežimo Slovenijo 0.0% 4.8% 3.9–6.0% 3.7–6.3% 3.4–6.6% 3.1–7.2%
Naša dežela 0.0% 4.5% 3.6–5.7% 3.4–6.0% 3.2–6.3% 2.8–6.9%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 3.5% 2.8–4.6% 2.6–4.9% 2.4–5.2% 2.1–5.7%
Piratska stranka Slovenije 2.2% 3.1% 2.4–4.1% 2.2–4.4% 2.1–4.6% 1.8–5.2%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 2.4% 1.8–3.3% 1.6–3.6% 1.5–3.8% 1.3–4.3%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 1.3% 0.9–2.0% 0.8–2.2% 0.7–2.4% 0.5–2.8%
Dobra država 1.5% 1.3% 0.9–2.0% 0.8–2.2% 0.7–2.4% 0.5–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Gibanje Svoboda 0 25 23–30 23–31 22–31 21–32
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 19 16–23 16–23 16–24 15–24
Socialni demokrati 10 9 7–11 7–12 7–12 6–13
Levica 9 7 5–8 5–9 5–9 5–10
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 6 5–9 5–9 4–10 4–10
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 5 0–6 0–6 0–7 0–7
Povežimo Slovenijo 0 4 0–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Naša dežela 0 4 0–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–5
Piratska stranka Slovenije 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0 0 0 0–4
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0 0 0 0
Dobra država 0 0 0 0 0 0

Gibanje Svoboda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Gibanje Svoboda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.2% 100%  
21 2% 99.8%  
22 0.9% 98%  
23 17% 97%  
24 3% 80%  
25 28% 78% Median
26 14% 50%  
27 7% 36%  
28 7% 29%  
29 12% 22%  
30 3% 10%  
31 6% 7%  
32 0.4% 0.7%  
33 0.3% 0.3%  
34 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.5% 99.9%  
16 19% 99.4%  
17 11% 81%  
18 14% 70%  
19 9% 56% Median
20 15% 47%  
21 9% 32%  
22 12% 24%  
23 9% 11%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 2% 100%  
7 11% 98%  
8 15% 87%  
9 25% 72% Median
10 34% 47% Last Result
11 7% 14%  
12 6% 7%  
13 0.5% 0.6%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100%  
5 14% 99.7%  
6 17% 86%  
7 46% 69% Median
8 14% 23%  
9 8% 9% Last Result
10 0.9% 1.1%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 5% 100%  
5 31% 95%  
6 20% 64% Median
7 19% 44% Last Result
8 15% 25%  
9 6% 11%  
10 4% 4%  
11 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 14% 100%  
1 0% 86%  
2 0% 86%  
3 0% 86%  
4 24% 86%  
5 42% 62% Median
6 15% 20%  
7 4% 4%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0% Last Result

Povežimo Slovenijo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Povežimo Slovenijo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 16% 100% Last Result
1 0% 84%  
2 0% 84%  
3 0% 84%  
4 47% 84% Median
5 21% 38%  
6 15% 17%  
7 1.5% 2%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Naša dežela

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Naša dežela page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 34% 100% Last Result
1 0% 66%  
2 0% 66%  
3 0.4% 66%  
4 29% 66% Median
5 25% 37%  
6 11% 12%  
7 1.2% 1.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 59% 100% Median
1 0% 41%  
2 0% 41%  
3 0% 41%  
4 21% 41%  
5 20% 21% Last Result
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Piratska stranka Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratska stranka Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 11%  
2 0% 11%  
3 0% 11%  
4 9% 11%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.7% 100% Median
1 0% 1.3%  
2 0% 1.3%  
3 0% 1.3%  
4 1.2% 1.3% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Dobra država

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dobra država page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 23 0% 20–28 19–28 18–28 17–29
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 23 0% 20–28 19–28 18–28 17–29
Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 20 0% 17–23 15–25 14–25 13–25
Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 30 20 0% 17–23 15–25 14–25 13–25
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 14 0% 10–16 10–17 9–18 7–18
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 14 0% 10–16 10–17 9–18 7–18

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.2% 99.9%  
17 0.2% 99.7%  
18 3% 99.5%  
19 1.2% 96%  
20 8% 95%  
21 19% 87%  
22 12% 68%  
23 9% 56%  
24 9% 47% Median
25 3% 37%  
26 13% 34%  
27 11% 21%  
28 10% 11%  
29 0.3% 0.5%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.2% 99.9%  
17 0.2% 99.7%  
18 3% 99.5%  
19 1.2% 96%  
20 8% 95%  
21 19% 87%  
22 12% 68%  
23 9% 56%  
24 9% 47% Median
25 3% 37%  
26 13% 34%  
27 11% 21%  
28 10% 11%  
29 0.3% 0.5%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.5% 99.9%  
14 3% 99.5%  
15 3% 96%  
16 3% 94%  
17 4% 91%  
18 10% 87%  
19 12% 78%  
20 30% 66% Median
21 15% 36%  
22 3% 21%  
23 11% 17%  
24 1.3% 6%  
25 5% 5%  
26 0.3% 0.4%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.5% 99.9%  
14 3% 99.5%  
15 3% 96%  
16 3% 94%  
17 4% 91%  
18 10% 87%  
19 12% 78%  
20 30% 66% Median
21 15% 36%  
22 3% 21%  
23 11% 17%  
24 1.3% 6%  
25 5% 5%  
26 0.3% 0.4%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100%  
7 0.3% 99.8%  
8 0.8% 99.5%  
9 4% 98.7%  
10 9% 95%  
11 3% 86%  
12 9% 84%  
13 22% 75%  
14 14% 52% Median
15 24% 39%  
16 8% 15%  
17 2% 6%  
18 5% 5%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100%  
7 0.3% 99.8%  
8 0.8% 99.5%  
9 4% 98.7%  
10 9% 95%  
11 3% 86%  
12 9% 84%  
13 22% 75%  
14 14% 52% Median
15 24% 39%  
16 8% 15%  
17 2% 6%  
18 5% 5%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations