Opinion Poll by Parsifal for Nova24TV, 14–16 February 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 31.0% 28.9–33.3% 28.3–34.0% 27.7–34.5% 26.7–35.7%
Gibanje Svoboda 0.0% 17.8% 16.1–19.8% 15.6–20.3% 15.2–20.8% 14.4–21.8%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 10.3% 8.9–11.9% 8.6–12.3% 8.2–12.7% 7.6–13.5%
Levica 9.3% 8.6% 7.3–10.1% 7.0–10.5% 6.7–10.9% 6.2–11.6%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 6.0% 5.0–7.3% 4.8–7.7% 4.5–8.0% 4.1–8.7%
Povežimo Slovenijo 0.0% 4.5% 3.6–5.7% 3.4–6.0% 3.2–6.3% 2.8–6.9%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 3.9% 3.1–5.0% 2.9–5.3% 2.7–5.6% 2.4–6.2%
Naša dežela 0.0% 3.8% 3.0–4.9% 2.8–5.2% 2.6–5.5% 2.3–6.0%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 2.2% 1.7–3.1% 1.5–3.4% 1.4–3.6% 1.2–4.1%
Piratska stranka Slovenije 2.2% 2.2% 1.7–3.1% 1.5–3.4% 1.4–3.6% 1.2–4.1%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 1.8% 1.3–2.7% 1.2–2.9% 1.1–3.1% 0.9–3.6%
Dobra država 1.5% 1.1% 0.8–1.8% 0.7–2.0% 0.6–2.2% 0.4–2.6%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 0.7% 0.4–1.3% 0.4–1.5% 0.3–1.6% 0.2–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 30 29–33 28–34 27–34 27–38
Gibanje Svoboda 0 18 16–19 16–20 16–21 14–22
Socialni demokrati 10 9 9–11 8–12 8–12 7–13
Levica 9 9 7–10 7–10 7–10 6–11
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 6 5–7 5–7 4–7 4–9
Povežimo Slovenijo 0 4 0–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 4 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Naša dežela 0 0 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–5
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0 0 0 0
Piratska stranka Slovenije 0 0 0 0 0 0
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0 0 0 0
Dobra država 0 0 0 0 0 0
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100% Last Result
26 0.1% 100%  
27 5% 99.9%  
28 3% 95%  
29 6% 92%  
30 39% 86% Median
31 7% 47%  
32 6% 39%  
33 28% 33%  
34 3% 6%  
35 1.2% 2%  
36 0.3% 1.3%  
37 0.2% 1.0%  
38 0.3% 0.8%  
39 0.5% 0.5%  
40 0% 0%  

Gibanje Svoboda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Gibanje Svoboda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.5% 100%  
15 2% 99.5%  
16 12% 98%  
17 34% 85%  
18 7% 51% Median
19 38% 44%  
20 3% 6%  
21 1.2% 3%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.1% 0.4%  
24 0.3% 0.4%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.5% 100%  
8 9% 99.5%  
9 46% 90% Median
10 31% 45% Last Result
11 8% 14%  
12 5% 6%  
13 1.1% 1.4%  
14 0.2% 0.3%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 2% 99.9%  
7 11% 98%  
8 30% 87%  
9 43% 57% Last Result, Median
10 14% 15%  
11 1.0% 1.2%  
12 0.2% 0.3%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 3% 99.8%  
5 25% 97%  
6 43% 72% Median
7 27% 29%  
8 0.6% 2%  
9 1.0% 1.0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0% Last Result

Povežimo Slovenijo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Povežimo Slovenijo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 11% 100% Last Result
1 0% 89%  
2 0% 89%  
3 0% 89%  
4 47% 89% Median
5 22% 42%  
6 20% 21%  
7 0.8% 0.9%  
8 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 21% 100%  
1 0% 79%  
2 0% 79%  
3 0% 79%  
4 42% 79% Median
5 36% 37%  
6 0.5% 0.6%  
7 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
8 0% 0%  

Naša dežela

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Naša dežela page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 64% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 36%  
2 0% 36%  
3 0% 36%  
4 22% 36%  
5 13% 14%  
6 0.4% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Piratska stranka Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratska stranka Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Dobra država

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dobra država page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 37 0.3% 35–39 34–39 34–41 32–44
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 37 0.3% 35–39 34–39 34–41 32–44
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 19 0% 16–21 15–22 15–22 13–25
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 19 0% 16–21 15–22 15–22 13–25
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 16 0% 14–17 14–18 14–19 13–20
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 16 0% 14–17 14–18 14–19 13–20

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.5% 100%  
33 1.1% 99.5%  
34 7% 98%  
35 6% 91%  
36 26% 85% Median
37 17% 59%  
38 25% 43%  
39 13% 17%  
40 2% 5%  
41 1.4% 3%  
42 0.6% 1.4%  
43 0.4% 0.9% Last Result
44 0.2% 0.5%  
45 0% 0.4%  
46 0.3% 0.3% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.5% 100%  
33 1.1% 99.5%  
34 7% 98%  
35 6% 91%  
36 26% 85% Median
37 17% 59%  
38 25% 43% Last Result
39 13% 17%  
40 2% 5%  
41 1.4% 3%  
42 0.6% 1.4%  
43 0.4% 0.9%  
44 0.2% 0.5%  
45 0% 0.4%  
46 0.3% 0.3% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.4% 99.9%  
14 0.7% 99.5%  
15 7% 98.8%  
16 7% 92%  
17 3% 85%  
18 22% 82%  
19 11% 61% Median
20 14% 49%  
21 29% 35%  
22 5% 6%  
23 0.8% 2%  
24 0.2% 0.8%  
25 0.5% 0.6%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.4% 99.9%  
14 0.7% 99.5%  
15 7% 98.8%  
16 7% 92%  
17 3% 85%  
18 22% 82%  
19 11% 61% Median
20 14% 49%  
21 29% 35%  
22 5% 6%  
23 0.8% 2%  
24 0.2% 0.8%  
25 0.5% 0.6%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0% 100%  
12 0.2% 99.9%  
13 1.2% 99.7%  
14 27% 98.6%  
15 12% 71% Median
16 43% 59%  
17 9% 16%  
18 5% 8%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.6% 0.8%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0% 100%  
12 0.2% 99.9%  
13 1.2% 99.7%  
14 27% 98.6%  
15 12% 71% Median
16 43% 59%  
17 9% 16%  
18 5% 8%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.6% 0.8%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations