Opinion Poll by Mediana for RTV SLO, 28 February–3 March 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 24.9% | 23.2% | 21.6–24.9% | 21.1–25.4% | 20.7–25.9% | 20.0–26.7% |
| Gibanje Svoboda | 0.0% | 22.8% | 21.2–24.5% | 20.7–25.0% | 20.3–25.5% | 19.6–26.3% |
| Socialni demokrati | 9.9% | 9.7% | 8.6–11.0% | 8.3–11.3% | 8.0–11.7% | 7.5–12.3% |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 12.6% | 7.2% | 6.2–8.3% | 6.0–8.6% | 5.7–8.9% | 5.3–9.5% |
| Levica | 9.3% | 7.1% | 6.1–8.2% | 5.9–8.5% | 5.7–8.8% | 5.2–9.4% |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.1–8.1% | 5.8–8.4% | 5.6–8.7% | 5.2–9.3% |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.4–6.1% | 4.1–6.4% | 3.9–6.7% | 3.6–7.2% |
| Resni.ca | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.6–4.0% | 2.4–4.3% | 2.3–4.5% | 2.0–4.9% |
| VESNA–Zelena stranka | 0.0% | 2.9% | 2.3–3.7% | 2.2–3.9% | 2.0–4.1% | 1.8–4.5% |
| Naša dežela | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.3–3.6% | 2.1–3.8% | 2.0–4.0% | 1.7–4.4% |
| Povežimo Slovenijo | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.0–3.3% | 1.8–3.5% | 1.7–3.7% | 1.5–4.1% |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.6–3.2% | 1.5–3.3% | 1.3–3.7% |
| Piratska stranka Slovenije | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.8–2.0% | 0.7–2.1% | 0.6–2.5% |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 4.9% | 1.1% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–1.9% | 0.5–2.2% |
| Dobra država | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.2–1.0% | 0.2–1.1% | 0.1–1.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 23–26 |
| Gibanje Svoboda | 0 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25–26 | 24–28 |
| Socialni demokrati | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10–11 | 9–11 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 13 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7–8 | 7–8 |
| Levica | 9 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7–8 | 7–9 |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7–8 | 6–9 |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| Resni.ca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| VESNA–Zelena stranka | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Naša dežela | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Povežimo Slovenijo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Piratska stranka Slovenije | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dobra država | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 24 | 0.8% | 98.8% | |
| 25 | 97% | 98% | Last Result, Median |
| 26 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Gibanje Svoboda
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Gibanje Svoboda page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 25 | 96% | 99.4% | Median |
| 26 | 2% | 3% | |
| 27 | 0.4% | 1.5% | |
| 28 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 29 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 1.3% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 2% | 98.7% | Last Result |
| 11 | 96% | 97% | Median |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 7 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 8 | 97% | 97% | Median |
| 9 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Levica
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 96% | 99.6% | Median |
| 8 | 2% | 3% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 7 | 96% | 99.1% | Last Result, Median |
| 8 | 2% | 3% | |
| 9 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Stranka Alenke Bratušek
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 4 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 5 | 97% | 97% | Last Result, Median |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Resni.ca
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Resni.ca page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
VESNA–Zelena stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the VESNA–Zelena stranka page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Naša dežela
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Naša dežela page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Povežimo Slovenijo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Povežimo Slovenijo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Slovenska nacionalna stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Piratska stranka Slovenije
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratska stranka Slovenije page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Dobra država
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dobra država page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 43 | 33 | 0% | 33 | 33 | 32–33 | 30–34 |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca | 38 | 33 | 0% | 33 | 33 | 32–33 | 30–34 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 35 | 26 | 0% | 26 | 26 | 25–26 | 23–26 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 30 | 26 | 0% | 26 | 26 | 25–26 | 23–26 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 28 | 19 | 0% | 19 | 19 | 17–19 | 16–19 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca | 23 | 19 | 0% | 19 | 19 | 17–19 | 16–19 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 32 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 33 | 96% | 97% | Median |
| 34 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 32 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 33 | 96% | 97% | Median |
| 34 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 39 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 25 | 2% | 98% | |
| 26 | 97% | 97% | Median |
| 27 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 25 | 2% | 98% | |
| 26 | 97% | 97% | Median |
| 27 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 17 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 18 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 19 | 96% | 96% | Median |
| 20 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 17 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 18 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 19 | 96% | 96% | Median |
| 20 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Mediana
- Commissioner(s): RTV SLO
- Fieldwork period: 28 February–3 March 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1031
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.51%