Opinion Poll by Mediana for Delo, 7–10 March 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Gibanje Svoboda 0.0% 22.6% 20.6–24.7% 20.1–25.3% 19.6–25.8% 18.7–26.9%
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 20.6% 18.7–22.6% 18.2–23.2% 17.7–23.7% 16.9–24.8%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 10.6% 9.2–12.2% 8.8–12.7% 8.5–13.1% 7.9–13.9%
Levica 9.3% 9.1% 7.9–10.7% 7.5–11.1% 7.2–11.5% 6.7–12.3%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 5.7% 4.7–7.0% 4.5–7.4% 4.2–7.7% 3.8–8.4%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 4.6% 3.7–5.8% 3.5–6.1% 3.3–6.4% 2.9–7.0%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 4.4% 3.6–5.6% 3.3–5.9% 3.1–6.2% 2.8–6.8%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 4.3% 3.4–5.4% 3.2–5.8% 3.0–6.1% 2.7–6.7%
Povežimo Slovenijo 0.0% 4.3% 3.4–5.4% 3.2–5.8% 3.0–6.1% 2.7–6.7%
Resni.ca 0.0% 3.3% 2.6–4.3% 2.4–4.6% 2.2–4.9% 1.9–5.4%
Piratska stranka Slovenije 2.2% 1.9% 1.3–2.7% 1.2–2.9% 1.1–3.2% 0.9–3.6%
Naša dežela 0.0% 1.9% 1.3–2.7% 1.2–2.9% 1.1–3.2% 0.9–3.6%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 1.7% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.8% 1.0–3.0% 0.8–3.4%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 1.1% 0.8–1.9% 0.7–2.1% 0.6–2.2% 0.4–2.6%
Dobra država 1.5% 0.9% 0.5–1.5% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–1.9% 0.3–2.2%
VESNA–Zelena stranka 0.0% 0.6% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.5% 0.2–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Gibanje Svoboda 0 23 23–27 23–27 23–27 20–28
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 22 22–23 22–23 20–25 19–25
Socialni demokrati 10 11 11–13 11–13 10–13 9–15
Levica 9 12 10–12 9–12 8–13 8–14
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 5 5–8 5–8 4–8 4–8
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 5 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0 0–5 0–6 0–6
Stranka modernega centra 10 5 5–7 4–7 0–7 0–7
Povežimo Slovenijo 0 5 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–7
Resni.ca 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Piratska stranka Slovenije 0 0 0 0 0 0
Naša dežela 0 0 0 0 0 0
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0 0 0 0
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0 0 0 0
Dobra država 0 0 0 0 0 0
VESNA–Zelena stranka 0 0 0 0 0 0

Gibanje Svoboda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Gibanje Svoboda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.1% 99.9%  
20 0.4% 99.9%  
21 0.6% 99.5%  
22 0.7% 98.9%  
23 78% 98% Median
24 2% 21%  
25 3% 18%  
26 0.7% 15%  
27 14% 15%  
28 0.3% 0.6%  
29 0.2% 0.3%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 2% 99.8%  
20 0.9% 98%  
21 0.6% 97%  
22 74% 96% Median
23 18% 22%  
24 0.5% 4%  
25 3% 3% Last Result
26 0.2% 0.4%  
27 0% 0.2%  
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 2% 99.8%  
10 1.5% 98% Last Result
11 75% 96% Median
12 0.5% 21%  
13 19% 20%  
14 0.5% 1.4%  
15 0.8% 0.9%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.3% 100%  
8 4% 99.7%  
9 1.1% 96% Last Result
10 15% 95%  
11 3% 80%  
12 73% 77% Median
13 2% 5%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 3% 99.8%  
5 73% 97% Median
6 6% 23%  
7 2% 17% Last Result
8 15% 15%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 20% 100%  
1 0% 80%  
2 0% 80%  
3 0% 80%  
4 2% 80%  
5 76% 78% Median
6 2% 2%  
7 0.5% 0.5%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0% Last Result

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Median
1 0% 7%  
2 0% 7%  
3 0% 7%  
4 2% 7%  
5 0.8% 5% Last Result
6 5% 5%  
7 0% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 0% 97%  
2 0% 97%  
3 0% 97%  
4 3% 97%  
5 80% 94% Median
6 0.4% 15%  
7 14% 14%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Povežimo Slovenijo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Povežimo Slovenijo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 20% 100% Last Result
1 0% 80%  
2 0% 80%  
3 0% 80%  
4 3% 80%  
5 75% 77% Median
6 1.0% 2%  
7 0.6% 0.6%  
8 0% 0%  

Resni.ca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Resni.ca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0% 2%  
4 1.3% 2%  
5 0.2% 0.4%  
6 0.1% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Piratska stranka Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratska stranka Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Naša dežela

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Naša dežela page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Dobra država

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dobra država page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

VESNA–Zelena stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the VESNA–Zelena stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 27 0% 23–27 23–27 22–30 19–30
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 27 0% 23–27 23–27 22–30 19–30
Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 50 26 0% 26–28 26–28 22–29 20–32
Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 45 26 0% 26–28 22–28 22–28 20–32
Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra 40 26 0% 26–28 22–28 22–28 20–32
Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 21 0% 21 17–22 17–24 17–27
Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 30 21 0% 21 17–22 17–24 17–27
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 21 0% 20–21 20–24 16–24 14–26
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 38 21 0% 20–21 17–21 16–22 14–25
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra 33 21 0% 20–21 17–21 16–22 14–25
Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 25 16 0% 16–20 15–20 14–20 10–20
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 16 0% 13–16 13–16 11–18 9–20
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 16 0% 13–16 13–16 11–18 9–20

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 2% 100%  
20 0.1% 98%  
21 0.1% 98%  
22 1.0% 98%  
23 17% 97%  
24 0.2% 80%  
25 1.1% 80%  
26 2% 79%  
27 72% 77% Median
28 0.9% 5%  
29 1.3% 4%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0.2% 0.3%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 2% 100%  
20 0.1% 98%  
21 0.1% 98%  
22 1.0% 98%  
23 17% 97%  
24 0.2% 80%  
25 1.1% 80%  
26 2% 79%  
27 72% 77% Median
28 0.9% 5%  
29 1.3% 4%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0.2% 0.3%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 0.4% 99.8%  
21 0.2% 99.4%  
22 2% 99.2%  
23 0.3% 97%  
24 0.1% 97%  
25 0.2% 97%  
26 74% 97% Median
27 0.3% 23%  
28 19% 22%  
29 0.5% 3%  
30 0.1% 2%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.5% 0.7%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Majority
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0% 99.8%  
19 0.2% 99.8%  
20 0.6% 99.6%  
21 0.1% 99.0%  
22 6% 98.9%  
23 0.9% 93%  
24 0.3% 92%  
25 2% 92%  
26 73% 90% Median
27 0.3% 17%  
28 17% 17%  
29 0.1% 0.7%  
30 0.1% 0.6%  
31 0.1% 0.6%  
32 0.5% 0.5%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0% 99.8%  
19 0.2% 99.8%  
20 0.6% 99.6%  
21 0.1% 99.0%  
22 6% 98.9%  
23 0.9% 93%  
24 0.3% 92%  
25 2% 92%  
26 73% 90% Median
27 0.3% 17%  
28 17% 17%  
29 0.1% 0.7%  
30 0.1% 0.6%  
31 0.1% 0.6%  
32 0.5% 0.5%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0.1% 99.9%  
16 0.2% 99.8%  
17 5% 99.6%  
18 0.3% 95%  
19 0.4% 94%  
20 2% 94%  
21 87% 92% Median
22 1.1% 5%  
23 1.0% 4%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0% 0.7%  
26 0.1% 0.7%  
27 0.5% 0.6%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0.1% 99.9%  
16 0.2% 99.8%  
17 5% 99.6%  
18 0.3% 95%  
19 0.4% 94%  
20 2% 94%  
21 87% 92% Median
22 1.1% 5%  
23 1.0% 4%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0% 0.7%  
26 0.1% 0.7%  
27 0.5% 0.6%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.3% 100%  
13 0% 99.7%  
14 0.3% 99.7%  
15 0% 99.4%  
16 2% 99.4%  
17 0.4% 97%  
18 0.7% 97%  
19 0.3% 96%  
20 15% 96%  
21 73% 81% Median
22 3% 8%  
23 0.6% 6%  
24 4% 5%  
25 0.6% 1.3%  
26 0.4% 0.7%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.3% 100%  
13 0.2% 99.7%  
14 1.0% 99.5%  
15 0.2% 98.6%  
16 3% 98%  
17 0.7% 96%  
18 4% 95%  
19 0.4% 91%  
20 15% 90%  
21 73% 76% Median
22 2% 3%  
23 0.2% 0.9%  
24 0.1% 0.6%  
25 0.5% 0.5%  
26 0% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.3% 100%  
13 0.2% 99.7%  
14 1.0% 99.5%  
15 0.2% 98.6%  
16 3% 98%  
17 0.7% 96%  
18 4% 95%  
19 0.4% 91%  
20 15% 90%  
21 73% 76% Median
22 2% 3%  
23 0.2% 0.9%  
24 0.1% 0.6%  
25 0.5% 0.5%  
26 0% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.8% 99.9%  
11 0.8% 99.1%  
12 0.4% 98%  
13 0.4% 98%  
14 2% 98%  
15 0.5% 95%  
16 74% 95% Median
17 3% 20%  
18 3% 18%  
19 0.1% 15%  
20 15% 15%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.7% 100%  
10 0.1% 99.3%  
11 2% 99.1%  
12 0.4% 97%  
13 18% 97%  
14 1.0% 79%  
15 0.7% 78%  
16 73% 77% Median
17 0.7% 4%  
18 3% 4%  
19 0.1% 0.8%  
20 0.6% 0.7%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.7% 100%  
10 0.1% 99.3%  
11 2% 99.1%  
12 0.4% 97%  
13 18% 97%  
14 1.0% 79%  
15 0.7% 78%  
16 73% 77% Median
17 0.7% 4%  
18 3% 4%  
19 0.1% 0.8%  
20 0.6% 0.7%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations