Opinion Poll by Ninamedia for Dnvnk, Včr, PrmNvc, Svt24, 21–24 March 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gibanje Svoboda | 0.0% | 25.7% | 24.0–27.5% | 23.6–28.0% | 23.2–28.5% | 22.4–29.3% |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 24.9% | 24.3% | 22.6–26.0% | 22.2–26.6% | 21.8–27.0% | 21.0–27.8% |
| Socialni demokrati | 9.9% | 10.7% | 9.5–12.0% | 9.2–12.4% | 8.9–12.7% | 8.4–13.3% |
| Levica | 9.3% | 9.8% | 8.7–11.1% | 8.4–11.4% | 8.2–11.8% | 7.7–12.4% |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.4–7.4% | 5.2–7.7% | 5.0–7.9% | 4.6–8.5% |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 12.6% | 6.1% | 5.2–7.1% | 5.0–7.5% | 4.8–7.7% | 4.4–8.2% |
| Povežimo Slovenijo | 0.0% | 4.1% | 3.4–5.0% | 3.2–5.3% | 3.0–5.5% | 2.8–5.9% |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5.1% | 3.7% | 3.1–4.6% | 2.9–4.8% | 2.7–5.0% | 2.4–5.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gibanje Svoboda | 0 | 24 | 22–26 | 22–26 | 21–27 | 20–28 |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 25 | 23 | 21–24 | 20–25 | 20–25 | 19–26 |
| Socialni demokrati | 10 | 10 | 9–11 | 8–11 | 8–12 | 7–12 |
| Levica | 9 | 9 | 8–10 | 7–10 | 7–11 | 7–11 |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7 | 5 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 13 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| Povežimo Slovenijo | 0 | 3 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
Gibanje Svoboda
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Gibanje Svoboda page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 4% | 99.3% | |
| 22 | 11% | 96% | |
| 23 | 26% | 84% | |
| 24 | 23% | 59% | Median |
| 25 | 22% | 35% | |
| 26 | 9% | 13% | |
| 27 | 3% | 4% | |
| 28 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska demokratska stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 5% | 99.0% | |
| 21 | 16% | 94% | |
| 22 | 24% | 79% | |
| 23 | 29% | 55% | Median |
| 24 | 18% | 26% | |
| 25 | 6% | 8% | Last Result |
| 26 | 2% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 8 | 8% | 99.3% | |
| 9 | 34% | 91% | |
| 10 | 40% | 58% | Last Result, Median |
| 11 | 13% | 17% | |
| 12 | 4% | 4% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Levica
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 6% | 99.8% | |
| 8 | 34% | 94% | |
| 9 | 40% | 60% | Last Result, Median |
| 10 | 15% | 20% | |
| 11 | 4% | 5% | |
| 12 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 8% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 47% | 92% | Median |
| 6 | 34% | 45% | |
| 7 | 10% | 11% | Last Result |
| 8 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 14% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 37% | 86% | Median |
| 6 | 43% | 49% | |
| 7 | 5% | 5% | |
| 8 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Povežimo Slovenijo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Povežimo Slovenijo page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 36% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 64% | |
| 2 | 0% | 64% | |
| 3 | 19% | 64% | Median |
| 4 | 39% | 45% | |
| 5 | 6% | 6% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Stranka Alenke Bratušek
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 65% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 35% | |
| 2 | 0% | 35% | |
| 3 | 12% | 35% | |
| 4 | 22% | 23% | |
| 5 | 0.9% | 0.9% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca | 38 | 28 | 0% | 26–30 | 25–30 | 25–31 | 24–32 |
| Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca | 30 | 21 | 0% | 19–22 | 18–23 | 18–23 | 17–24 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca | 23 | 15 | 0% | 14–16 | 13–17 | 13–18 | 12–18 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 7% | 99.1% | |
| 26 | 11% | 92% | |
| 27 | 18% | 82% | |
| 28 | 21% | 64% | Median |
| 29 | 24% | 43% | |
| 30 | 15% | 19% | |
| 31 | 3% | 4% | |
| 32 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 17 | 1.2% | 99.8% | |
| 18 | 5% | 98.6% | |
| 19 | 14% | 94% | |
| 20 | 27% | 80% | Median |
| 21 | 30% | 53% | |
| 22 | 14% | 22% | |
| 23 | 6% | 8% | |
| 24 | 2% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 9% | 99.0% | |
| 14 | 20% | 90% | |
| 15 | 31% | 70% | Median |
| 16 | 29% | 39% | |
| 17 | 7% | 10% | |
| 18 | 2% | 3% | |
| 19 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ninamedia
- Commissioner(s): Dnvnk, Včr, PrmNvc, Svt24
- Fieldwork period: 21–24 March 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1050
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.90%