Opinion Poll by Mediana for RTV SLO, 30–31 March 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Gibanje Svoboda 0.0% 24.7% 23.0–26.5% 22.5–27.0% 22.1–27.4% 21.4–28.3%
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 23.5% 21.9–25.3% 21.4–25.8% 21.0–26.2% 20.2–27.1%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 10.3% 9.2–11.7% 8.9–12.0% 8.6–12.4% 8.1–13.0%
Levica 9.3% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.5% 6.5–9.8% 6.0–10.4%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 6.3% 5.5–7.4% 5.2–7.7% 5.0–8.0% 4.6–8.6%
Povežimo Slovenijo 0.0% 4.6% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.8% 3.5–6.1% 3.1–6.5%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.3–5.3%
Naša dežela 0.0% 2.4% 1.9–3.2% 1.8–3.4% 1.7–3.6% 1.4–4.0%
Resni.ca 0.0% 2.1% 1.7–2.9% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%
Piratska stranka Slovenije 2.2% 1.6% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.5% 0.8–2.9%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.1% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.6%
Dobra država 1.5% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.1% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.6%
VESNA–Zelena stranka 0.0% 1.3% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–2.0% 0.7–2.2% 0.6–2.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Gibanje Svoboda 0 27 24–28 24–28 24–29 23–31
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 26 25–27 23–29 23–29 22–30
Socialni demokrati 10 10 10–11 10–12 9–13 9–13
Levica 9 8 8–9 8–10 7–10 6–11
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 7 6–8 6–8 5–8 5–9
Povežimo Slovenijo 0 5 4–5 0–6 0–6 0–7
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 0 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 5 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0 0–5 0–5 0–5
Naša dežela 0 0 0 0 0 0
Resni.ca 0 0 0 0 0 0
Piratska stranka Slovenije 0 0 0 0 0 0
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0 0 0 0
Dobra država 0 0 0 0 0 0
VESNA–Zelena stranka 0 0 0 0 0 0

Gibanje Svoboda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Gibanje Svoboda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.3% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.7%  
24 11% 99.5%  
25 3% 88%  
26 4% 85%  
27 70% 82% Median
28 7% 11%  
29 4% 5%  
30 0.5% 1.1%  
31 0.3% 0.5%  
32 0% 0.2%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0.1%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.2% 99.9%  
22 1.0% 99.7%  
23 6% 98.7%  
24 1.5% 93%  
25 3% 92% Last Result
26 66% 89% Median
27 13% 23%  
28 4% 10%  
29 3% 5%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 5% 99.9%  
10 69% 95% Last Result, Median
11 18% 26%  
12 4% 8%  
13 3% 4%  
14 0.4% 0.4%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.7% 100%  
7 4% 99.3%  
8 74% 95% Median
9 14% 22% Last Result
10 6% 7%  
11 1.0% 1.2%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 5% 99.8%  
6 12% 95%  
7 73% 83% Last Result, Median
8 9% 11%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Povežimo Slovenijo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Povežimo Slovenijo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 0% 95%  
2 0% 95%  
3 0% 95%  
4 6% 95%  
5 79% 88% Median
6 9% 10%  
7 0.5% 0.6%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 85% 100% Median
1 0% 15%  
2 0% 15%  
3 0% 15%  
4 12% 15%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0.4% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 22% 100%  
1 0% 78%  
2 0% 78%  
3 0% 78%  
4 4% 78% Last Result
5 73% 74% Median
6 0.9% 0.9%  
7 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Median
1 0% 8%  
2 0% 8%  
3 0% 8%  
4 1.5% 8%  
5 6% 6% Last Result
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Naša dežela

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Naša dežela page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Resni.ca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Resni.ca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Piratska stranka Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratska stranka Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Dobra država

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dobra država page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

VESNA–Zelena stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the VESNA–Zelena stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 26 0% 26–30 23–31 23–31 22–33
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 26 0% 26–30 23–31 23–31 22–33
Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 17 0% 17–23 16–23 16–23 16–24
Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 30 17 0% 17–23 16–23 16–23 16–24
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 10 0% 10–15 10–15 9–17 9–17
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 10 0% 10–15 10–15 9–17 9–17

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.7% 99.9%  
23 4% 99.2%  
24 0.4% 95%  
25 0.2% 95%  
26 66% 94% Median
27 6% 28%  
28 5% 23%  
29 5% 17%  
30 3% 12%  
31 8% 9%  
32 0.3% 1.1%  
33 0.8% 0.8%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.7% 99.9%  
23 4% 99.2%  
24 0.4% 95%  
25 0.2% 95%  
26 66% 94% Median
27 6% 28%  
28 5% 23%  
29 5% 17%  
30 3% 12%  
31 8% 9%  
32 0.3% 1.1%  
33 0.8% 0.8%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.2% 99.9%  
16 6% 99.8%  
17 76% 94% Median
18 0.6% 18%  
19 0.2% 17%  
20 3% 17%  
21 2% 14%  
22 0.8% 12%  
23 9% 11%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0.1% 0.3%  
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.2% 99.9%  
16 6% 99.8%  
17 76% 94% Median
18 0.6% 18%  
19 0.2% 17%  
20 3% 17%  
21 2% 14%  
22 0.8% 12%  
23 9% 11%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0.1% 0.3%  
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 4% 100%  
10 67% 96% Median
11 9% 29%  
12 4% 19%  
13 2% 16%  
14 0.7% 14%  
15 9% 13%  
16 2% 4%  
17 2% 3%  
18 0.1% 0.4%  
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 4% 100%  
10 67% 96% Median
11 9% 29%  
12 4% 19%  
13 2% 16%  
14 0.7% 14%  
15 9% 13%  
16 2% 4%  
17 2% 3%  
18 0.1% 0.4%  
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations