Opinion Poll by Mediana for Delo, POP TV, 19–21 April 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gibanje Svoboda | 0.0% | 26.8% | 25.1–28.6% | 24.6–29.1% | 24.2–29.6% | 23.4–30.5% |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 24.9% | 25.0% | 23.4–26.8% | 22.9–27.3% | 22.5–27.8% | 21.7–28.6% |
| Socialni demokrati | 9.9% | 8.1% | 7.1–9.3% | 6.8–9.6% | 6.5–9.9% | 6.1–10.5% |
| Levica | 9.3% | 8.0% | 7.0–9.1% | 6.7–9.5% | 6.4–9.8% | 6.0–10.4% |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.0–9.1% | 6.7–9.5% | 6.4–9.8% | 6.0–10.4% |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.9–6.8% | 4.6–7.1% | 4.5–7.3% | 4.1–7.8% |
| Piratska stranka Slovenije | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.6–4.0% | 2.4–4.3% | 2.3–4.5% | 2.0–4.9% |
| Povežimo Slovenijo | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.6–4.0% | 2.4–4.3% | 2.3–4.5% | 2.0–4.9% |
| Resni.ca | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.3–4.1% | 2.2–4.4% | 2.0–4.8% |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 12.6% | 2.8% | 2.3–3.6% | 2.1–3.8% | 2.0–4.0% | 1.7–4.4% |
| Naša dežela | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.2% | 0.9–2.4% | 0.7–2.7% |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 4.9% | 1.3% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.8–2.0% | 0.7–2.1% | 0.6–2.5% |
| VESNA–Zelena stranka | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–1.9% | 0.5–2.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gibanje Svoboda | 0 | 29 | 28–30 | 27–30 | 26–31 | 25–32 |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 25 | 25 | 25–28 | 24–29 | 24–29 | 23–30 |
| Socialni demokrati | 10 | 8 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 7–11 | 6–11 |
| Levica | 9 | 10 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 6–11 |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7 | 9 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 6–10 |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–8 |
| Piratska stranka Slovenije | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Povežimo Slovenijo | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Resni.ca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Naša dežela | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| VESNA–Zelena stranka | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Gibanje Svoboda
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Gibanje Svoboda page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 26 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 27 | 5% | 97% | |
| 28 | 26% | 92% | |
| 29 | 50% | 66% | Median |
| 30 | 11% | 15% | |
| 31 | 2% | 4% | |
| 32 | 2% | 2% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska demokratska stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 9% | 99.1% | |
| 25 | 43% | 90% | Last Result, Median |
| 26 | 8% | 47% | |
| 27 | 17% | 39% | |
| 28 | 17% | 22% | |
| 29 | 4% | 5% | |
| 30 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 7 | 24% | 99.2% | |
| 8 | 55% | 75% | Median |
| 9 | 11% | 20% | |
| 10 | 5% | 8% | Last Result |
| 11 | 4% | 4% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Levica
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 13% | 99.1% | |
| 8 | 7% | 87% | |
| 9 | 28% | 79% | Last Result |
| 10 | 8% | 51% | Median |
| 11 | 42% | 42% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 10% | 99.0% | Last Result |
| 8 | 19% | 89% | |
| 9 | 64% | 70% | Median |
| 10 | 5% | 5% | |
| 11 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Stranka Alenke Bratušek
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 24% | 98% | Last Result |
| 6 | 43% | 74% | Median |
| 7 | 26% | 31% | |
| 8 | 5% | 5% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Piratska stranka Slovenije
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratska stranka Slovenije page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 3% | |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Povežimo Slovenijo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Povežimo Slovenijo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 85% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 15% | |
| 2 | 0% | 15% | |
| 3 | 0% | 15% | |
| 4 | 14% | 15% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Resni.ca
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Resni.ca page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 3% | |
| 4 | 2% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.9% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Naša dežela
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Naša dežela page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
VESNA–Zelena stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the VESNA–Zelena stranka page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 43 | 25 | 0% | 25–28 | 24–29 | 24–29 | 23–31 |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca | 38 | 25 | 0% | 25–28 | 24–29 | 24–29 | 23–31 |
| Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 35 | 17 | 0% | 15–18 | 15–19 | 14–19 | 14–20 |
| Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca | 30 | 17 | 0% | 15–18 | 15–19 | 14–19 | 14–20 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 28 | 8 | 0% | 7–9 | 7–10 | 7–11 | 6–12 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca | 23 | 8 | 0% | 7–9 | 7–10 | 7–11 | 6–12 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 9% | 99.2% | |
| 25 | 43% | 90% | Median |
| 26 | 8% | 48% | |
| 27 | 17% | 40% | |
| 28 | 17% | 22% | |
| 29 | 4% | 6% | |
| 30 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 31 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 9% | 99.2% | |
| 25 | 43% | 90% | Median |
| 26 | 8% | 48% | |
| 27 | 17% | 40% | |
| 28 | 17% | 22% | |
| 29 | 4% | 6% | |
| 30 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 31 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 14 | 4% | 99.6% | |
| 15 | 7% | 96% | |
| 16 | 25% | 89% | |
| 17 | 48% | 63% | Median |
| 18 | 7% | 16% | |
| 19 | 7% | 8% | |
| 20 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 14 | 4% | 99.6% | |
| 15 | 7% | 96% | |
| 16 | 25% | 89% | |
| 17 | 48% | 63% | Median |
| 18 | 7% | 16% | |
| 19 | 7% | 8% | |
| 20 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 7 | 24% | 99.3% | |
| 8 | 54% | 75% | Median |
| 9 | 11% | 21% | |
| 10 | 5% | 9% | |
| 11 | 4% | 5% | |
| 12 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 7 | 24% | 99.3% | |
| 8 | 54% | 75% | Median |
| 9 | 11% | 21% | |
| 10 | 5% | 9% | |
| 11 | 4% | 5% | |
| 12 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Mediana
- Commissioner(s): Delo, POP TV
- Fieldwork period: 19–21 April 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1031
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.38%