Opinion Poll by Ninamedia for Dnevnik, Večer, 20–22 April 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gibanje Svoboda | 0.0% | 27.7% | 25.8–29.6% | 25.3–30.2% | 24.8–30.7% | 24.0–31.6% |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 24.9% | 24.0% | 22.2–25.9% | 21.7–26.4% | 21.3–26.9% | 20.5–27.8% |
| Socialni demokrati | 9.9% | 8.1% | 7.0–9.4% | 6.8–9.8% | 6.5–10.1% | 6.0–10.7% |
| Levica | 9.3% | 7.1% | 6.1–8.3% | 5.8–8.7% | 5.6–9.0% | 5.2–9.6% |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.9–8.1% | 5.6–8.4% | 5.4–8.7% | 5.0–9.4% |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 12.6% | 4.3% | 3.6–5.3% | 3.4–5.6% | 3.2–5.9% | 2.9–6.4% |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.3–5.0% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.5% | 2.6–6.0% |
| Povežimo Slovenijo | 0.0% | 3.6% | 2.9–4.5% | 2.7–4.8% | 2.5–5.0% | 2.2–5.5% |
| Resni.ca | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.9% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.8–4.8% |
| Piratska stranka Slovenije | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.0–3.4% | 1.8–3.6% | 1.7–3.8% | 1.5–4.2% |
| VESNA–Zelena stranka | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.9–3.2% | 1.7–3.5% | 1.6–3.7% | 1.4–4.1% |
| Naša dežela | 0.0% | 1.7% | 1.2–2.4% | 1.1–2.6% | 1.0–2.7% | 0.8–3.1% |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 4.2% | 1.6% | 1.1–2.2% | 1.0–2.4% | 0.9–2.6% | 0.8–3.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gibanje Svoboda | 0 | 31 | 28–34 | 28–34 | 27–34 | 26–35 |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 25 | 26 | 23–29 | 23–29 | 23–29 | 22–30 |
| Socialni demokrati | 10 | 10 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 6–12 |
| Levica | 9 | 7 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 5–10 |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7 | 7 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–10 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 13 | 4 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5 | 0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| Povežimo Slovenijo | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Resni.ca | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Piratska stranka Slovenije | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| VESNA–Zelena stranka | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Naša dežela | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Gibanje Svoboda
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Gibanje Svoboda page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 27 | 1.4% | 98.9% | |
| 28 | 13% | 97% | |
| 29 | 13% | 85% | |
| 30 | 18% | 71% | |
| 31 | 13% | 53% | Median |
| 32 | 17% | 40% | |
| 33 | 4% | 23% | |
| 34 | 18% | 18% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska demokratska stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 1.4% | 99.8% | |
| 23 | 12% | 98% | |
| 24 | 14% | 86% | |
| 25 | 20% | 72% | Last Result |
| 26 | 13% | 52% | Median |
| 27 | 8% | 39% | |
| 28 | 10% | 31% | |
| 29 | 20% | 21% | |
| 30 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 7 | 15% | 98% | |
| 8 | 14% | 83% | |
| 9 | 12% | 69% | |
| 10 | 30% | 57% | Last Result, Median |
| 11 | 26% | 27% | |
| 12 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Levica
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 23% | 98.7% | |
| 7 | 39% | 76% | Median |
| 8 | 20% | 37% | |
| 9 | 14% | 17% | Last Result |
| 10 | 3% | 3% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 26% | 97% | |
| 7 | 30% | 72% | Last Result, Median |
| 8 | 32% | 42% | |
| 9 | 9% | 10% | |
| 10 | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 42% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 58% | |
| 2 | 0% | 58% | |
| 3 | 0% | 58% | |
| 4 | 22% | 58% | Median |
| 5 | 23% | 36% | |
| 6 | 13% | 13% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Stranka Alenke Bratušek
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 50% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 50% | |
| 2 | 0% | 50% | |
| 3 | 0% | 50% | |
| 4 | 24% | 50% | |
| 5 | 23% | 26% | Last Result |
| 6 | 2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Povežimo Slovenijo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Povežimo Slovenijo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 81% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 19% | |
| 2 | 0% | 19% | |
| 3 | 0% | 19% | |
| 4 | 11% | 19% | |
| 5 | 8% | 8% | |
| 6 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Resni.ca
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Resni.ca page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 83% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 17% | |
| 2 | 0% | 17% | |
| 3 | 0% | 17% | |
| 4 | 16% | 17% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 6 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Piratska stranka Slovenije
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratska stranka Slovenije page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.0% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
VESNA–Zelena stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the VESNA–Zelena stranka page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Naša dežela
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Naša dežela page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Slovenska nacionalna stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca | 38 | 29 | 0% | 27–31 | 26–32 | 25–33 | 24–34 |
| Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca | 30 | 19 | 0% | 16–22 | 15–22 | 14–24 | 13–24 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca | 23 | 12 | 0% | 8–16 | 7–16 | 7–16 | 6–16 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 24 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 25 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 26 | 5% | 96% | |
| 27 | 12% | 91% | |
| 28 | 26% | 80% | |
| 29 | 23% | 54% | |
| 30 | 8% | 31% | Median |
| 31 | 16% | 23% | |
| 32 | 3% | 6% | |
| 33 | 3% | 4% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 15 | 7% | 97% | |
| 16 | 5% | 90% | |
| 17 | 5% | 85% | |
| 18 | 3% | 79% | |
| 19 | 29% | 76% | |
| 20 | 9% | 47% | |
| 21 | 21% | 39% | Median |
| 22 | 14% | 18% | |
| 23 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 24 | 3% | 3% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 7 | 5% | 99.5% | |
| 8 | 5% | 94% | |
| 9 | 6% | 89% | |
| 10 | 3% | 84% | |
| 11 | 26% | 81% | |
| 12 | 11% | 54% | |
| 13 | 5% | 44% | |
| 14 | 22% | 39% | Median |
| 15 | 4% | 18% | |
| 16 | 13% | 14% | |
| 17 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ninamedia
- Commissioner(s): Dnevnik, Večer
- Fieldwork period: 20–22 April 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 900
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.39%