Opinion Poll by Mediana for Delo, 3–5 May 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Gibanje Svoboda 0.0% 36.8% 34.5–39.2% 33.9–39.9% 33.3–40.4% 32.3–41.6%
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 25.2% 23.2–27.4% 22.7–28.0% 22.2–28.6% 21.2–29.6%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 8.5% 7.3–10.0% 6.9–10.4% 6.6–10.7% 6.1–11.5%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 6.2% 5.2–7.5% 4.9–7.9% 4.6–8.2% 4.2–8.9%
Levica 9.3% 5.9% 4.9–7.2% 4.6–7.6% 4.4–7.9% 4.0–8.6%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 3.0% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 2.0–4.5% 1.7–5.0%
Povežimo Slovenijo 0.0% 2.8% 2.2–3.8% 2.0–4.1% 1.8–4.3% 1.6–4.8%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 2.7% 2.0–3.6% 1.9–3.9% 1.7–4.2% 1.5–4.7%
VESNA–Zelena stranka 0.0% 1.6% 1.1–2.3% 1.0–2.6% 0.9–2.8% 0.7–3.2%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 1.3% 0.9–2.0% 0.8–2.2% 0.7–2.4% 0.5–2.8%
Naša dežela 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.5–2.0% 0.4–2.4%
Resni.ca 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.5–2.0% 0.4–2.4%
Piratska stranka Slovenije 2.2% 0.6% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.4% 0.1–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Gibanje Svoboda 0 39 36–42 35–43 35–43 33–45
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 25 23–28 23–29 23–31 22–32
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 9 7–11 7–11 7–11 6–12
Socialni demokrati 10 6 5–7 5–8 4–8 4–9
Levica 9 6 5–7 4–8 4–8 0–9
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–5
Povežimo Slovenijo 0 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–5
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0 0 0 0–4
VESNA–Zelena stranka 0 0 0 0 0 0
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0 0 0 0
Naša dežela 0 0 0 0 0 0
Resni.ca 0 0 0 0 0 0
Piratska stranka Slovenije 0 0 0 0 0 0

Gibanje Svoboda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Gibanje Svoboda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0.4% 100%  
33 0.4% 99.6%  
34 2% 99.2%  
35 4% 98%  
36 6% 93%  
37 19% 87%  
38 14% 69%  
39 9% 55% Median
40 4% 45%  
41 3% 42%  
42 33% 38%  
43 5% 6%  
44 0.1% 1.4%  
45 1.2% 1.3%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 2% 99.8%  
23 11% 98%  
24 8% 86%  
25 43% 78% Last Result, Median
26 15% 35%  
27 8% 20%  
28 2% 12%  
29 6% 10%  
30 0.9% 3%  
31 0.9% 3%  
32 2% 2%  
33 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 2% 99.8%  
7 9% 98% Last Result
8 18% 89%  
9 46% 71% Median
10 11% 24%  
11 12% 13%  
12 0.9% 1.0%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 3% 99.7%  
5 10% 97%  
6 56% 86% Median
7 22% 31%  
8 8% 9%  
9 0.7% 0.8%  
10 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.1% 100%  
1 0% 98.9%  
2 0% 98.9%  
3 0% 98.9%  
4 4% 98.9%  
5 16% 95%  
6 57% 78% Median
7 13% 21%  
8 6% 8%  
9 1.4% 2% Last Result
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Median
1 0% 6%  
2 0% 6%  
3 0% 6%  
4 5% 6%  
5 1.4% 2%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0% Last Result

Povežimo Slovenijo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Povežimo Slovenijo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 7%  
2 0% 7%  
3 0% 7%  
4 7% 7%  
5 0.9% 0.9%  
6 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0% 2%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

VESNA–Zelena stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the VESNA–Zelena stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Naša dežela

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Naša dežela page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Resni.ca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Resni.ca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Piratska stranka Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratska stranka Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 25 0% 23–29 23–30 23–32 23–32
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 30 15 0% 14–17 13–19 13–19 11–20
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 6 0% 6–8 5–9 5–10 4–12

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.2% 99.9%  
23 10% 99.7%  
24 7% 89%  
25 43% 82% Median
26 15% 39%  
27 8% 23%  
28 4% 16%  
29 6% 12%  
30 2% 6%  
31 1.1% 4%  
32 2% 3%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.1% 99.9%  
11 0.6% 99.7%  
12 0.8% 99.2%  
13 6% 98%  
14 12% 92%  
15 42% 80% Median
16 17% 38%  
17 12% 21%  
18 2% 8%  
19 6% 7%  
20 0.3% 0.7%  
21 0.3% 0.4%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 2% 99.8%  
5 8% 98%  
6 55% 90% Median
7 21% 35%  
8 8% 14%  
9 4% 7%  
10 0.6% 3%  
11 1.0% 2%  
12 1.1% 1.2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations