Opinion Poll by OGM for KURIER, 24–26 June 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) | 0.0% | 27.0% | 25.3–28.8% | 24.8–29.3% | 24.3–29.8% | 23.5–30.7% |
| Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) | 0.0% | 24.0% | 22.4–25.8% | 21.9–26.3% | 21.5–26.8% | 20.7–27.6% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) | 0.0% | 21.0% | 19.4–22.7% | 19.0–23.2% | 18.6–23.6% | 17.9–24.5% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 11.0% | 9.9–12.4% | 9.5–12.8% | 9.3–13.1% | 8.7–13.8% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) | 0.0% | 8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.6% | 6.5–9.8% | 6.1–10.5% |
| Bierpartei (*) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.3–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) | 0 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Bierpartei (*) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 11% | 100% | |
| 6 | 81% | 89% | Median |
| 7 | 8% | 8% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 5 | 75% | 98.7% | Median |
| 6 | 24% | 24% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 55% | 99.9% | Median |
| 5 | 45% | 45% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 92% | 99.7% | Median |
| 3 | 8% | 8% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 66% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 34% | 34% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Bierpartei (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bierpartei (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 91% | 91% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 11% | 100% | |
| 6 | 81% | 89% | Median |
| 7 | 8% | 8% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 5 | 75% | 98.7% | Median |
| 6 | 24% | 24% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 55% | 99.9% | Median |
| 5 | 45% | 45% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 66% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 34% | 34% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: OGM
- Commissioner(s): KURIER
- Fieldwork period: 24–26 June 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1023
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.91%