Opinion Poll by Market for Der Standard, 8–11 July 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) | 0.0% | 27.0% | 25.1–29.1% | 24.5–29.6% | 24.1–30.1% | 23.2–31.2% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) | 0.0% | 22.0% | 20.2–23.9% | 19.7–24.5% | 19.3–25.0% | 18.4–25.9% |
| Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) | 0.0% | 22.0% | 20.2–23.9% | 19.7–24.5% | 19.3–25.0% | 18.4–25.9% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) | 0.0% | 11.0% | 9.7–12.6% | 9.4–13.0% | 9.1–13.4% | 8.5–14.2% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 9.0% | 7.8–10.4% | 7.5–10.8% | 7.2–11.1% | 6.7–11.8% |
| Bierpartei (*) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.2% | 3.9–6.5% | 3.7–6.8% | 3.4–7.3% |
| Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.9% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.1–4.1% | 2.0–4.4% | 1.7–4.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) | 0 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–3 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Bierpartei (*) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 19% | 100% | |
| 6 | 75% | 81% | Median |
| 7 | 6% | 6% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 30% | 100% | |
| 5 | 68% | 70% | Median |
| 6 | 2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 30% | 100% | |
| 5 | 68% | 70% | Median |
| 6 | 2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 2 | 92% | 99.4% | Median |
| 3 | 8% | 8% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 29% | 100% | |
| 2 | 71% | 71% | Median |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Bierpartei (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bierpartei (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 88% | 88% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–3 |
| Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 19% | 100% | |
| 6 | 75% | 81% | Median |
| 7 | 6% | 6% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 30% | 100% | |
| 5 | 68% | 70% | Median |
| 6 | 2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 30% | 100% | |
| 5 | 68% | 70% | Median |
| 6 | 2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 2 | 92% | 99.4% | Median |
| 3 | 8% | 8% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Market
- Commissioner(s): Der Standard
- Fieldwork period: 8–11 July 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 815
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.84%