Opinion Poll by INSA for eXXpress, 5–7 August 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) | 0.0% | 31.0% | 29.2–32.9% | 28.7–33.5% | 28.2–33.9% | 27.3–34.9% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) | 0.0% | 21.0% | 19.4–22.7% | 19.0–23.2% | 18.6–23.6% | 17.8–24.5% |
| Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) | 0.0% | 19.0% | 17.5–20.7% | 17.1–21.1% | 16.7–21.6% | 16.0–22.4% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 9.0% | 7.9–10.3% | 7.6–10.6% | 7.4–10.9% | 6.9–11.6% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) | 0.0% | 8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.6% | 6.5–9.9% | 6.0–10.5% |
| Bierpartei (*) | 0.0% | 7.0% | 6.1–8.2% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.6–8.8% | 5.2–9.3% |
| Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Bierpartei (*) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 11% | 100% | |
| 7 | 78% | 89% | Median |
| 8 | 11% | 11% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 39% | 100% | |
| 5 | 60% | 61% | Median |
| 6 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 88% | 97% | Median |
| 5 | 9% | 9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 17% | 100% | |
| 2 | 83% | 83% | Median |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 62% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 38% | 38% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Bierpartei (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bierpartei (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 93% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 7% | 7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 11% | 100% | |
| 7 | 78% | 89% | Median |
| 8 | 11% | 11% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 39% | 100% | |
| 5 | 60% | 61% | Median |
| 6 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 88% | 97% | Median |
| 5 | 9% | 9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 62% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 38% | 38% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: INSA
- Commissioner(s): eXXpress
- Fieldwork period: 5–7 August 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.98%