Opinion Poll by Market, 26–27 August 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) | 0.0% | 27.0% | 25.7–28.3% | 25.4–28.7% | 25.1–29.0% | 24.5–29.6% |
| Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) | 0.0% | 23.0% | 21.8–24.2% | 21.5–24.6% | 21.2–24.9% | 20.7–25.5% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) | 0.0% | 20.0% | 18.9–21.2% | 18.6–21.5% | 18.3–21.8% | 17.8–22.4% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) | 0.0% | 12.0% | 11.1–13.0% | 10.9–13.3% | 10.6–13.5% | 10.2–14.0% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 8.0% | 7.3–8.8% | 7.1–9.1% | 6.9–9.3% | 6.6–9.7% |
| Bierpartei (*) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.5–4.6% | 3.3–4.8% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.0–5.3% |
| Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.6–3.6% | 2.4–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.1–4.1% |
| Liste Madeleine Petrovic (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.8–1.4% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.5% | 0.5–1.7% |
| Wandel (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.8–1.4% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.5% | 0.5–1.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) | 0 | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–7 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Bierpartei (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Liste Madeleine Petrovic (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wandel (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 79% | 98% | Median |
| 7 | 19% | 19% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 5 | 88% | 99.3% | Median |
| 6 | 11% | 11% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 65% | 100% | Median |
| 5 | 35% | 35% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 58% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 42% | 42% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 49% | 100% | |
| 2 | 51% | 51% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Bierpartei (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bierpartei (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 56% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 44% | 44% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.3% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Liste Madeleine Petrovic (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liste Madeleine Petrovic (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Wandel (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Wandel (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–7 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL) – Wandel (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 79% | 98% | Median |
| 7 | 19% | 19% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 5 | 88% | 99.3% | Median |
| 6 | 11% | 11% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 65% | 100% | Median |
| 5 | 35% | 35% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 58% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 42% | 42% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL) – Wandel (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.3% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Market
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 26–27 August 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 2000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.94%