Opinion Poll by OGM for Servus TV, 1–31 August 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) | 0.0% | 27.0% | 24.6–29.6% | 23.9–30.3% | 23.3–31.0% | 22.2–32.2% |
| Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) | 0.0% | 22.9% | 20.7–25.4% | 20.1–26.1% | 19.5–26.7% | 18.5–28.0% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) | 0.0% | 21.0% | 18.8–23.4% | 18.2–24.1% | 17.7–24.7% | 16.7–25.9% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 9.1% | 7.6–10.9% | 7.2–11.4% | 6.9–11.8% | 6.2–12.8% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) | 0.0% | 9.1% | 7.6–10.9% | 7.2–11.4% | 6.9–11.8% | 6.2–12.8% |
| Bierpartei (*) | 0.0% | 6.0% | 4.8–7.5% | 4.5–8.0% | 4.2–8.4% | 3.7–9.2% |
| Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.3–4.3% | 2.1–4.6% | 1.9–5.0% | 1.6–5.6% |
| Liste Madeleine Petrovic (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% | 0.4–2.2% | 0.3–2.7% |
| Wandel (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% | 0.4–2.2% | 0.3–2.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) | 0 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–6 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Bierpartei (*) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–2 |
| Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Liste Madeleine Petrovic (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wandel (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 18% | 100% | |
| 6 | 69% | 82% | Median |
| 7 | 14% | 14% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 18% | 100% | |
| 5 | 70% | 81% | Median |
| 6 | 11% | 11% | |
| 7 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 4 | 51% | 99.2% | Median |
| 5 | 47% | 48% | |
| 6 | 1.4% | 1.5% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 29% | 100% | |
| 2 | 70% | 71% | Median |
| 3 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 19% | 100% | |
| 2 | 80% | 81% | Median |
| 3 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Bierpartei (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bierpartei (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 96% | 98% | Median |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 92% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 8% | 8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Liste Madeleine Petrovic (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liste Madeleine Petrovic (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Wandel (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Wandel (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–6 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL) – Wandel (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 18% | 100% | |
| 6 | 69% | 82% | Median |
| 7 | 14% | 14% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 18% | 100% | |
| 5 | 70% | 81% | Median |
| 6 | 11% | 11% | |
| 7 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 4 | 51% | 99.2% | Median |
| 5 | 47% | 48% | |
| 6 | 1.4% | 1.5% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 19% | 100% | |
| 2 | 80% | 81% | Median |
| 3 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL) – Wandel (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 92% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 8% | 8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: OGM
- Commissioner(s): Servus TV
- Fieldwork period: 1–31 August 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 519
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.71%