Opinion Poll by OGM for Servus TV, 16–18 September 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) | 0.0% | 26.0% | 24.3–27.8% | 23.8–28.4% | 23.4–28.8% | 22.6–29.7% |
| Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) | 0.0% | 25.0% | 23.4–26.9% | 22.9–27.4% | 22.5–27.8% | 21.7–28.7% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) | 0.0% | 21.0% | 19.5–22.7% | 19.0–23.2% | 18.6–23.7% | 17.9–24.5% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 10.0% | 8.9–11.3% | 8.6–11.7% | 8.3–12.0% | 7.8–12.6% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) | 0.0% | 9.0% | 7.9–10.3% | 7.7–10.6% | 7.4–10.9% | 6.9–11.6% |
| Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.3–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.7% |
| Bierpartei (*) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.3–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.7% |
| Liste Madeleine Petrovic (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| Wandel (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) | 0 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–3 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Bierpartei (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Liste Madeleine Petrovic (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wandel (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 16% | 100% | |
| 6 | 80% | 84% | Median |
| 7 | 3% | 3% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 44% | 100% | |
| 6 | 55% | 56% | Median |
| 7 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 40% | 100% | |
| 5 | 59% | 60% | Median |
| 6 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 97% | 98% | Median |
| 3 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 13% | 100% | |
| 2 | 87% | 87% | Median |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 5% | 5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Bierpartei (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bierpartei (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 96% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 4% | 4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Liste Madeleine Petrovic (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liste Madeleine Petrovic (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Wandel (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Wandel (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL) – Wandel (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 16% | 100% | |
| 6 | 80% | 84% | Median |
| 7 | 3% | 3% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 44% | 100% | |
| 6 | 55% | 56% | Median |
| 7 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 40% | 100% | |
| 5 | 59% | 60% | Median |
| 6 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 13% | 100% | |
| 2 | 87% | 87% | Median |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL) – Wandel (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 5% | 5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: OGM
- Commissioner(s): Servus TV
- Fieldwork period: 16–18 September 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1022
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.35%