Opinion Poll by INSA for eXXpress, 13–15 January 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) | 0.0% | 35.0% | 33.1–37.0% | 32.6–37.5% | 32.1–38.0% | 31.2–39.0% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) | 0.0% | 20.0% | 18.4–21.7% | 18.0–22.2% | 17.6–22.6% | 16.9–23.4% |
| Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) | 0.0% | 20.0% | 18.4–21.7% | 18.0–22.2% | 17.6–22.6% | 16.9–23.4% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) | 0.0% | 11.0% | 9.8–12.4% | 9.5–12.8% | 9.2–13.1% | 8.7–13.8% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.6% | 6.5–9.9% | 6.0–10.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–8 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 1–3 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 42% | 99.8% | |
| 8 | 58% | 58% | Median |
| 9 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 88% | 98% | Median |
| 5 | 10% | 10% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 87% | 98% | Median |
| 5 | 11% | 11% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 2 | 96% | 99.4% | Median |
| 3 | 3% | 3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 78% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 22% | 22% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–8 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 1–3 |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 42% | 99.8% | |
| 8 | 58% | 58% | Median |
| 9 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 88% | 98% | Median |
| 5 | 10% | 10% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 87% | 98% | Median |
| 5 | 11% | 11% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 2 | 96% | 99.4% | Median |
| 3 | 3% | 3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: INSA
- Commissioner(s): eXXpress
- Fieldwork period: 13–15 January 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.30%