Opinion Poll by Market for ÖSTERREICH, 20–28 January 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) | 0.0% | 34.0% | 32.7–35.4% | 32.3–35.8% | 31.9–36.1% | 31.3–36.8% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) | 0.0% | 22.0% | 20.8–23.2% | 20.5–23.6% | 20.2–23.9% | 19.7–24.5% |
| Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) | 0.0% | 19.0% | 17.9–20.2% | 17.6–20.5% | 17.3–20.8% | 16.8–21.4% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) | 0.0% | 10.0% | 9.2–10.9% | 8.9–11.2% | 8.7–11.4% | 8.4–11.9% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 9.0% | 8.2–9.9% | 8.0–10.1% | 7.8–10.3% | 7.5–10.8% |
| Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.6–3.6% | 2.4–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.1–4.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–8 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3–5 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 57% | 100% | Median |
| 8 | 43% | 43% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 22% | 100% | |
| 5 | 77% | 78% | Median |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 97% | 98% | Median |
| 5 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 98.9% | 98.9% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 19% | 100% | |
| 2 | 81% | 81% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–8 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3–5 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 57% | 100% | Median |
| 8 | 43% | 43% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 22% | 100% | |
| 5 | 77% | 78% | Median |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 97% | 98% | Median |
| 5 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 98.9% | 98.9% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Market
- Commissioner(s): ÖSTERREICH
- Fieldwork period: 20–28 January 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 2000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.35%