Opinion Poll by INSA for Exxpress, 14–17 July 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) | 0.0% | 37.0% | 35.1–39.0% | 34.5–39.6% | 34.0–40.0% | 33.2–41.0% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) | 0.0% | 20.0% | 18.4–21.7% | 18.0–22.2% | 17.6–22.6% | 16.9–23.4% |
| Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) | 0.0% | 19.0% | 17.5–20.7% | 17.1–21.1% | 16.7–21.6% | 16.0–22.4% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 10.0% | 8.9–11.3% | 8.6–11.7% | 8.3–12.0% | 7.8–12.7% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) | 0.0% | 9.0% | 7.9–10.3% | 7.6–10.6% | 7.4–10.9% | 6.9–11.6% |
| Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 8–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 10% | 100% | |
| 8 | 77% | 90% | Median |
| 9 | 13% | 13% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 86% | 98% | Median |
| 5 | 11% | 11% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 9% | 100% | |
| 4 | 88% | 91% | Median |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 7% | 100% | |
| 2 | 93% | 93% | Median |
| 3 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 33% | 100% | |
| 2 | 67% | 67% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 68% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 32% | 32% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 8–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 10% | 100% | |
| 8 | 77% | 90% | Median |
| 9 | 13% | 13% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 86% | 98% | Median |
| 5 | 11% | 11% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 9% | 100% | |
| 4 | 88% | 91% | Median |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 33% | 100% | |
| 2 | 67% | 67% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: INSA
- Commissioner(s): Exxpress
- Fieldwork period: 14–17 July 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.56%