Opinion Poll by Market for Der Standard, 16–18 December 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) | 0.0% | 37.0% | 34.8–39.2% | 34.2–39.9% | 33.7–40.4% | 32.7–41.5% |
| Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) | 0.0% | 19.0% | 17.3–20.9% | 16.8–21.4% | 16.4–21.9% | 15.7–22.8% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) | 0.0% | 18.0% | 16.4–19.8% | 15.9–20.4% | 15.5–20.8% | 14.7–21.7% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 11.0% | 9.7–12.5% | 9.3–13.0% | 9.0–13.4% | 8.4–14.1% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) | 0.0% | 10.0% | 8.7–11.5% | 8.4–11.9% | 8.1–12.3% | 7.5–13.0% |
| Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.2–4.2% | 2.0–4.4% | 1.8–4.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 8–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–3 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 5% | 100% | |
| 8 | 75% | 95% | Median |
| 9 | 20% | 20% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 7% | 100% | |
| 4 | 87% | 93% | Median |
| 5 | 6% | 6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 21% | 100% | |
| 4 | 78% | 79% | Median |
| 5 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 2 | 93% | 99.3% | Median |
| 3 | 6% | 6% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 6% | 100% | |
| 2 | 93% | 94% | Median |
| 3 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 96% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 4% | 4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 8–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 5% | 100% | |
| 8 | 75% | 95% | Median |
| 9 | 20% | 20% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 7% | 100% | |
| 4 | 87% | 93% | Median |
| 5 | 6% | 6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 21% | 100% | |
| 4 | 78% | 79% | Median |
| 5 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 6% | 100% | |
| 2 | 93% | 94% | Median |
| 3 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Market
- Commissioner(s): Der Standard
- Fieldwork period: 16–18 December 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 800
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.09%