Opinion Poll by Market for ÖSTERREICH, 6–7 July 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) | 0.0% | 37.0% | 35.6–38.4% | 35.2–38.8% | 34.9–39.1% | 34.2–39.8% |
| Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) | 0.0% | 19.0% | 17.9–20.2% | 17.6–20.5% | 17.3–20.8% | 16.8–21.4% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) | 0.0% | 16.0% | 15.0–17.1% | 14.7–17.4% | 14.4–17.7% | 14.0–18.2% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 12.0% | 11.1–13.0% | 10.9–13.3% | 10.6–13.5% | 10.2–14.0% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) | 0.0% | 8.0% | 7.3–8.8% | 7.1–9.1% | 6.9–9.3% | 6.6–9.7% |
| Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.5–4.6% | 3.3–4.8% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.0–5.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 8–9 | 8–9 | 8–9 | 7–9 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 8 | 63% | 99.4% | Median |
| 9 | 36% | 37% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 4 | 94% | 99.1% | Median |
| 5 | 5% | 5% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 75% | 100% | Median |
| 4 | 25% | 25% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 74% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 26% | 26% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 69% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 31% | 31% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 60% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 40% | 40% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 8–9 | 8–9 | 8–9 | 7–9 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4 | 4 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 8 | 63% | 99.4% | Median |
| 9 | 36% | 37% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 4 | 94% | 99.1% | Median |
| 5 | 5% | 5% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 75% | 100% | Median |
| 4 | 25% | 25% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 69% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 31% | 31% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Market
- Commissioner(s): ÖSTERREICH
- Fieldwork period: 6–7 July 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 2000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.73%