Opinion Poll by Market for ÖSTERREICH, 12–13 October 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.6–41.4% | 38.2–41.8% | 37.9–42.2% | 37.2–42.9% |
| Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) | 0.0% | 17.0% | 16.0–18.1% | 15.7–18.4% | 15.4–18.7% | 14.9–19.3% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) | 0.0% | 16.0% | 15.0–17.1% | 14.7–17.4% | 14.4–17.7% | 14.0–18.2% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 12.0% | 11.1–13.0% | 10.9–13.3% | 10.6–13.5% | 10.2–14.0% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) | 0.0% | 7.0% | 6.3–7.8% | 6.1–8.0% | 6.0–8.2% | 5.6–8.6% |
| Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.6–3.6% | 2.4–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.1–4.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) | 0 | 9 | 9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–10 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 6% | 100% | |
| 9 | 86% | 94% | Median |
| 10 | 8% | 8% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 37% | 100% | |
| 4 | 63% | 63% | Median |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 84% | 100% | Median |
| 4 | 16% | 16% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 80% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 20% | 20% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98.8% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE) | 0 | 9 | 0% | 9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–10 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 6% | 100% | |
| 9 | 86% | 94% | Median |
| 10 | 8% | 8% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 84% | 100% | Median |
| 4 | 16% | 16% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 37% | 100% | |
| 4 | 63% | 63% | Median |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98.8% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Market
- Commissioner(s): ÖSTERREICH
- Fieldwork period: 12–13 October 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 2000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.53%