Opinion Poll by Promocija Plus for RTL, 1–4 July 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP) | 0.0% | 34.7% | 33.0–36.6% | 32.5–37.1% | 32.1–37.5% | 31.2–38.4% |
| Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske (S&D) | 0.0% | 29.3% | 27.6–31.1% | 27.2–31.6% | 26.8–32.0% | 26.0–32.9% |
| Možemo! (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 11.7% | 10.6–13.0% | 10.2–13.4% | 10.0–13.7% | 9.4–14.3% |
| Domovinski pokret (ECR) | 0.0% | 8.1% | 7.1–9.2% | 6.9–9.5% | 6.6–9.8% | 6.2–10.4% |
| Most nezavisnih lista (ECR) | 0.0% | 7.5% | 6.6–8.6% | 6.3–8.9% | 6.1–9.1% | 5.7–9.7% |
| Fokus na bitno (RE) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.2–2.1% | 1.1–2.3% | 1.0–2.4% | 0.8–2.7% |
| Istarski demokratski sabor (RE) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.0% | 1.0–2.2% | 0.9–2.3% | 0.8–2.6% |
| Pravo i Pravda (NI) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.5–1.7% | 0.4–2.0% |
| Radnička fronta (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.5–1.7% | 0.4–2.0% |
| Hrvatska narodna stranka–liberalni demokrati (RE) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.5–1.7% | 0.4–2.0% |
| Hrvatska seljačka stranka (*) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.4–1.4% | 0.3–1.6% |
| Hrvatska stranka umirovljenika (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.2–1.5% |
| Hrvatski suverenisti (ECR) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
| Centar (RE) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske (S&D) | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4–5 |
| Možemo! (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Domovinski pokret (ECR) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Most nezavisnih lista (ECR) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 |
| Fokus na bitno (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Istarski demokratski sabor (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pravo i Pravda (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Radnička fronta (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hrvatska narodna stranka–liberalni demokrati (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hrvatska seljačka stranka (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hrvatska stranka umirovljenika (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hrvatski suverenisti (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Centar (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 56% | 100% | Median |
| 5 | 44% | 44% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 98% | 99.8% | Median |
| 5 | 1.5% | 1.5% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Možemo! (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Možemo! (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 44% | 100% | |
| 2 | 56% | 56% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Domovinski pokret (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Domovinski pokret (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.9% | 99.9% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Most nezavisnih lista (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Most nezavisnih lista (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.9% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.1% | 99.1% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Fokus na bitno (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fokus na bitno (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Istarski demokratski sabor (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Istarski demokratski sabor (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Pravo i Pravda (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pravo i Pravda (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Radnička fronta (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Radnička fronta (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Hrvatska narodna stranka–liberalni demokrati (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Hrvatska narodna stranka–liberalni demokrati (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Hrvatska seljačka stranka (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Hrvatska seljačka stranka (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Hrvatska stranka umirovljenika (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Hrvatska stranka umirovljenika (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Hrvatski suverenisti (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Hrvatski suverenisti (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Centar (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centar (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| Možemo! (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Radnička fronta (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 56% | 100% | Median |
| 5 | 44% | 44% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Možemo! (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 44% | 100% | |
| 2 | 56% | 56% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Radnička fronta (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Promocija Plus
- Commissioner(s): RTL
- Fieldwork period: 1–4 July 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1163
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 3.51%