Opinion Poll by Promocija Plus for HRT, 14–19 November 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP) | 0.0% | 32.6% | 30.6–34.8% | 30.0–35.4% | 29.5–35.9% | 28.5–37.0% |
| Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske (S&D) | 0.0% | 27.8% | 25.8–29.8% | 25.3–30.4% | 24.8–30.9% | 23.9–31.9% |
| Možemo! (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 10.8% | 9.6–12.4% | 9.2–12.8% | 8.9–13.2% | 8.3–13.9% |
| Most nezavisnih lista (ECR) | 0.0% | 7.9% | 6.8–9.3% | 6.5–9.6% | 6.3–10.0% | 5.8–10.7% |
| Domovinski pokret (ECR) | 0.0% | 3.7% | 2.9–4.6% | 2.7–4.9% | 2.6–5.2% | 2.3–5.7% |
| Centar (RE) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.8–3.1% | 1.6–3.4% | 1.5–3.6% | 1.3–4.0% |
| Hrvatska seljačka stranka (*) | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.4–2.6% | 1.2–2.8% | 1.1–3.0% | 0.9–3.4% |
| Istarski demokratski sabor (RE) | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.4–2.6% | 1.2–2.8% | 1.1–3.0% | 0.9–3.4% |
| Radnička fronta (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.9–2.0% | 0.8–2.2% | 0.7–2.4% | 0.6–2.8% |
| Hrvatska stranka umirovljenika (*) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.7–2.1% | 0.7–2.2% | 0.5–2.6% |
| Fokus na bitno (RE) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.7–1.7% | 0.7–1.9% | 0.6–2.1% | 0.4–2.4% |
| Nezavisna Platforma Sjever (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–1.9% | 0.4–2.3% |
| Hrvatski suverenisti (ECR) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.4–1.4% | 0.3–1.6% | 0.2–1.9% |
| Pravo i Pravda (NI) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.4–1.4% | 0.3–1.6% | 0.2–1.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 |
| Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske (S&D) | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| Možemo! (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Most nezavisnih lista (ECR) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Domovinski pokret (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Centar (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hrvatska seljačka stranka (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Istarski demokratski sabor (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Radnička fronta (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hrvatska stranka umirovljenika (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fokus na bitno (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nezavisna Platforma Sjever (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hrvatski suverenisti (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pravo i Pravda (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 21% | 98.9% | |
| 6 | 78% | 78% | Median |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 4 | 97% | 99.5% | Median |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Možemo! (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Možemo! (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 84% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 16% | 16% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Most nezavisnih lista (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Most nezavisnih lista (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.8% | 99.9% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Domovinski pokret (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Domovinski pokret (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Centar (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centar (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Hrvatska seljačka stranka (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Hrvatska seljačka stranka (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Istarski demokratski sabor (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Istarski demokratski sabor (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Radnička fronta (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Radnička fronta (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Hrvatska stranka umirovljenika (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Hrvatska stranka umirovljenika (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Fokus na bitno (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fokus na bitno (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Nezavisna Platforma Sjever (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nezavisna Platforma Sjever (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Hrvatski suverenisti (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Hrvatski suverenisti (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Pravo i Pravda (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pravo i Pravda (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 |
| Možemo! (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Radnička fronta (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 21% | 98.9% | |
| 6 | 78% | 78% | Median |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Možemo! (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 84% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 16% | 16% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Radnička fronta (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Promocija Plus
- Commissioner(s): HRT
- Fieldwork period: 14–19 November 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 821
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.15%