Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Nova TV, 1–20 December 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP) 0.0% 32.7% 30.7–34.9% 30.1–35.5% 29.6–36.0% 28.7–37.0%
Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske (S&D) 0.0% 26.6% 24.7–28.7% 24.2–29.2% 23.7–29.7% 22.8–30.7%
Možemo! (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 11.3% 10.0–12.8% 9.6–13.2% 9.3–13.6% 8.7–14.4%
Most nezavisnih lista (ECR) 0.0% 9.4% 8.2–10.8% 7.8–11.2% 7.6–11.5% 7.0–12.2%
Domovinski pokret (ECR) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.9% 2.2–4.2% 2.0–4.4% 1.8–4.9%
Hrvatska stranka umirovljenika (*) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.9% 2.2–4.2% 2.0–4.4% 1.8–4.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske (S&D) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Možemo! (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Most nezavisnih lista (ECR) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Domovinski pokret (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Hrvatska stranka umirovljenika (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 50% 100%  
5 50% 50% Median
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0% Majority

Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 38% 100%  
4 62% 62% Median
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Možemo! (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Možemo! (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 94% 100% Median
2 6% 6%  
3 0% 0%  

Most nezavisnih lista (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Most nezavisnih lista (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 99.8% 99.9% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Domovinski pokret (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Domovinski pokret (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Hrvatska stranka umirovljenika (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Hrvatska stranka umirovljenika (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Možemo! (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1 1–2 1–2 1–2

Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 50% 100%  
5 50% 50% Median
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0% Majority

Možemo! (Greens/EFA)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 94% 100% Median
2 6% 6%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations