Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Nova TV, 1–20 January 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP) 0.0% 31.9% 29.9–34.0% 29.3–34.6% 28.8–35.1% 27.9–36.1%
Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske (S&D) 0.0% 28.4% 26.4–30.4% 25.9–31.0% 25.4–31.5% 24.5–32.5%
Možemo! (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 12.4% 11.0–13.9% 10.6–14.4% 10.3–14.7% 9.7–15.5%
Most nezavisnih lista (ECR) 0.0% 7.4% 6.4–8.7% 6.1–9.1% 5.8–9.4% 5.4–10.0%
Domovinski pokret (ECR) 0.0% 1.8% 1.3–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–2.9% 0.9–3.3%
Dom i Nacionalno Okupljanje (ECR) 0.0% 1.8% 1.3–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–2.9% 0.9–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske (S&D) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Možemo! (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Most nezavisnih lista (ECR) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Domovinski pokret (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dom i Nacionalno Okupljanje (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.2% 100%  
4 83% 99.8% Median
5 17% 17%  
6 0% 0%  

Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 14% 100%  
4 86% 86% Median
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Možemo! (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Možemo! (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 85% 100% Median
2 15% 15%  
3 0% 0%  

Most nezavisnih lista (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Most nezavisnih lista (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 19% 100% Last Result
1 81% 81% Median
2 0% 0%  

Domovinski pokret (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Domovinski pokret (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Dom i Nacionalno Okupljanje (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dom i Nacionalno Okupljanje (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Možemo! (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2

Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.2% 100%  
4 83% 99.8% Median
5 17% 17%  
6 0% 0%  

Možemo! (Greens/EFA)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 85% 100% Median
2 15% 15%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations