Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Nova TV, 1–20 June 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP) | 0.0% | 31.4% | 29.4–33.5% | 28.9–34.0% | 28.4–34.6% | 27.4–35.5% |
| Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske (S&D) | 0.0% | 26.2% | 24.3–28.2% | 23.8–28.7% | 23.4–29.2% | 22.5–30.2% |
| Možemo! (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 12.1% | 10.8–13.6% | 10.4–14.1% | 10.1–14.5% | 9.5–15.2% |
| Most nezavisnih lista (ECR) | 0.0% | 6.6% | 5.6–7.8% | 5.3–8.1% | 5.1–8.4% | 4.7–9.0% |
| Hrvatski suverenisti (ECR) | 0.0% | 3.3% | 2.7–4.3% | 2.5–4.5% | 2.3–4.8% | 2.1–5.3% |
| Domovinski pokret (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.9% | 2.3–3.8% | 2.1–4.0% | 2.0–4.2% | 1.7–4.7% |
| Dom i Nacionalno Okupljanje (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.1–3.5% | 1.9–3.7% | 1.8–4.0% | 1.5–4.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske (S&D) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Možemo! (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Most nezavisnih lista (ECR) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Hrvatski suverenisti (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Domovinski pokret (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dom i Nacionalno Okupljanje (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 59% | 99.9% | Median |
| 5 | 41% | 41% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 32% | 100% | |
| 4 | 68% | 68% | Median |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Možemo! (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Možemo! (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 69% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 31% | 31% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Most nezavisnih lista (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Most nezavisnih lista (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 37% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 63% | 63% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Hrvatski suverenisti (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Hrvatski suverenisti (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Domovinski pokret (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Domovinski pokret (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Dom i Nacionalno Okupljanje (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dom i Nacionalno Okupljanje (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| Možemo! (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 59% | 99.9% | Median |
| 5 | 41% | 41% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Možemo! (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 69% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 31% | 31% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Nova TV
- Fieldwork period: 1–20 June 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 867
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.07%