Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Nova TV, 1–20 November 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP) | 0.0% | 31.0% | 29.0–33.1% | 28.5–33.7% | 28.0–34.2% | 27.1–35.2% |
| Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske (S&D) | 0.0% | 24.0% | 22.2–26.0% | 21.7–26.5% | 21.3–27.0% | 20.4–27.9% |
| Možemo! (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 13.9% | 12.5–15.5% | 12.1–15.9% | 11.7–16.4% | 11.1–17.2% |
| Most nezavisnih lista (ECR) | 0.0% | 6.9% | 5.9–8.1% | 5.6–8.5% | 5.4–8.8% | 4.9–9.4% |
| Domovinski pokret (ECR) | 0.0% | 3.7% | 3.0–4.7% | 2.8–5.0% | 2.7–5.2% | 2.3–5.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske (S&D) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 |
| Možemo! (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Most nezavisnih lista (ECR) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Domovinski pokret (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 88% | 98% | Median |
| 5 | 10% | 10% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 94% | 99.0% | Median |
| 4 | 5% | 5% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Možemo! (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Možemo! (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 34% | 100% | |
| 2 | 66% | 66% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Most nezavisnih lista (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Most nezavisnih lista (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 39% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 61% | 61% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Domovinski pokret (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Domovinski pokret (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| Možemo! (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 88% | 98% | Median |
| 5 | 10% | 10% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Možemo! (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 34% | 100% | |
| 2 | 66% | 66% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Nova TV
- Fieldwork period: 1–20 November 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 858
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.44%