Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Nova TV, 1–19 December 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP) 0.0% 31.5% 29.5–33.5% 29.0–34.1% 28.5–34.6% 27.6–35.6%
Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske (S&D) 0.0% 23.4% 21.6–25.3% 21.1–25.8% 20.7–26.3% 19.9–27.2%
Možemo! (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 12.5% 11.2–14.1% 10.8–14.5% 10.5–14.9% 9.9–15.7%
Most nezavisnih lista (ECR) 0.0% 7.6% 6.6–8.9% 6.3–9.3% 6.1–9.6% 5.6–10.2%
Domovinski pokret (ECR) 0.0% 4.6% 3.8–5.6% 3.6–5.9% 3.4–6.2% 3.0–6.7%
NL Marija Selak Raspudić (ECR) 0.0% 2.9% 2.2–3.7% 2.1–4.0% 1.9–4.2% 1.7–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske (S&D) 0 3 3 3–4 3–4 3–4
Možemo! (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Most nezavisnih lista (ECR) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Domovinski pokret (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
NL Marija Selak Raspudić (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 63% 100% Median
5 37% 37%  
6 0% 0%  

Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.3% 100%  
3 90% 99.7% Median
4 10% 10%  
5 0% 0%  

Možemo! (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Možemo! (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 55% 100% Median
2 45% 45%  
3 0% 0%  

Most nezavisnih lista (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Most nezavisnih lista (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100% Last Result
1 94% 94% Median
2 0% 0%  

Domovinski pokret (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Domovinski pokret (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.2% 1.2%  
2 0% 0%  

NL Marija Selak Raspudić (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NL Marija Selak Raspudić (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Možemo! (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2

Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 63% 100% Median
5 37% 37%  
6 0% 0%  

Možemo! (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 55% 100% Median
2 45% 45%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations