Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Nova TV, 3–19 January 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP) 0.0% 32.6% 30.6–34.7% 30.1–35.3% 29.6–35.8% 28.7–36.9%
Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske (S&D) 0.0% 24.2% 22.4–26.1% 21.9–26.7% 21.4–27.2% 20.6–28.1%
Možemo! (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 12.0% 10.7–13.6% 10.3–14.0% 10.0–14.4% 9.4–15.1%
Most nezavisnih lista (ECR) 0.0% 7.2% 6.2–8.4% 5.9–8.8% 5.6–9.1% 5.2–9.7%
Domovinski pokret (ECR) 0.0% 3.1% 2.5–4.0% 2.3–4.3% 2.1–4.5% 1.9–5.0%
NL Marija Selak Raspudić (ECR) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.4% 1.8–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske (S&D) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Možemo! (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Most nezavisnih lista (ECR) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Domovinski pokret (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0
NL Marija Selak Raspudić (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 41% 100%  
5 59% 59% Median
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0% Majority

Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske (S&D) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 82% 99.9% Median
4 18% 18%  
5 0% 0%  

Možemo! (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Možemo! (Greens/EFA) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 76% 100% Median
2 24% 24%  
3 0% 0%  

Most nezavisnih lista (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Most nezavisnih lista (ECR) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 16% 100% Last Result
1 84% 84% Median
2 0% 0%  

Domovinski pokret (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Domovinski pokret (ECR) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

NL Marija Selak Raspudić (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NL Marija Selak Raspudić (ECR) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Možemo! (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2

Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 41% 100%  
5 59% 59% Median
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0% Majority

Možemo! (Greens/EFA)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 76% 100% Median
2 24% 24%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations