Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Nova TV, 1–18 August 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP) | 0.0% | 31.4% | 29.4–33.5% | 28.8–34.1% | 28.3–34.6% | 27.4–35.6% |
| Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske (S&D) | 0.0% | 21.4% | 19.7–23.4% | 19.2–23.9% | 18.8–24.4% | 18.0–25.3% |
| Možemo! (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 16.2% | 14.7–18.0% | 14.3–18.5% | 13.9–18.9% | 13.2–19.7% |
| Most nezavisnih lista (ECR) | 0.0% | 11.0% | 9.7–12.5% | 9.4–12.9% | 9.1–13.3% | 8.5–14.1% |
| Hrvatska stranka umirovljenika (*) | 0.0% | 3.3% | 2.7–4.3% | 2.5–4.5% | 2.3–4.8% | 2.0–5.2% |
| Domovinski pokret (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.2–3.7% | 2.1–4.0% | 1.9–4.2% | 1.7–4.7% |
| Stranka antikorupcije, razvoja i transparentnosti (*) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.6–2.9% | 1.5–3.2% | 1.4–3.4% | 1.1–3.8% |
| Drito (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.8% | 1.4–3.0% | 1.3–3.2% | 1.1–3.6% |
| Istarski demokratski sabor (RE) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.8% | 1.4–3.0% | 1.3–3.2% | 1.1–3.6% |
| Pravo i Pravda (NI) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.8–1.8% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.6–2.2% | 0.5–2.5% |
| Dom i Nacionalno Okupljanje (ECR) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.6–1.5% | 0.5–1.7% | 0.5–1.9% | 0.4–2.2% |
| Centar (RE) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.4% | 0.3–1.5% | 0.2–1.8% |
| Hrvatski suverenisti (ECR) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.2–1.7% |
| Građansko-liberalni savez (RE) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.2–1.7% |
| Hrvatska socijalno-liberalna stranka (RE) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.2–1.1% | 0.2–1.2% | 0.1–1.5% |
| Hrvatska seljačka stranka (*) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.2–1.1% | 0.2–1.2% | 0.1–1.5% |
| Nezavisna Platforma Sjever (*) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.2–1.1% | 0.2–1.2% | 0.1–1.5% |
| Hrvatska narodna stranka–liberalni demokrati (RE) | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.0–0.6% | 0.0–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 |
| Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske (S&D) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Možemo! (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Most nezavisnih lista (ECR) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Hrvatska stranka umirovljenika (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Domovinski pokret (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stranka antikorupcije, razvoja i transparentnosti (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Drito (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Istarski demokratski sabor (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pravo i Pravda (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dom i Nacionalno Okupljanje (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Centar (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hrvatski suverenisti (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Građansko-liberalni savez (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hrvatska socijalno-liberalna stranka (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hrvatska seljačka stranka (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nezavisna Platforma Sjever (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hrvatska narodna stranka–liberalni demokrati (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 35% | 99.0% | |
| 6 | 64% | 64% | Median |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 97% | 100% | Median |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Možemo! (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Možemo! (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 80% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 20% | 20% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Most nezavisnih lista (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Most nezavisnih lista (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 85% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 15% | 15% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Hrvatska stranka umirovljenika (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Hrvatska stranka umirovljenika (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Domovinski pokret (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Domovinski pokret (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Stranka antikorupcije, razvoja i transparentnosti (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka antikorupcije, razvoja i transparentnosti (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Drito (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Drito (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Istarski demokratski sabor (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Istarski demokratski sabor (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Pravo i Pravda (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pravo i Pravda (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Dom i Nacionalno Okupljanje (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dom i Nacionalno Okupljanje (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Centar (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centar (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Hrvatski suverenisti (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Hrvatski suverenisti (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Građansko-liberalni savez (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Građansko-liberalni savez (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Hrvatska socijalno-liberalna stranka (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Hrvatska socijalno-liberalna stranka (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Hrvatska seljačka stranka (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Hrvatska seljačka stranka (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Nezavisna Platforma Sjever (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nezavisna Platforma Sjever (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Hrvatska narodna stranka–liberalni demokrati (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Hrvatska narodna stranka–liberalni demokrati (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 |
| Možemo! (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 35% | 99.0% | |
| 6 | 64% | 64% | Median |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Možemo! (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 80% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 20% | 20% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Nova TV
- Fieldwork period: 1–18 August 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 844
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 5.46%