Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 26 June–1 July 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 34.3% 32.4–36.3% 31.9–36.8% 31.4–37.3% 30.5–38.3%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 20.8% 19.2–22.5% 18.8–23.0% 18.4–23.4% 17.7–24.3%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 17.5% 16.0–19.1% 15.6–19.6% 15.3–20.0% 14.6–20.8%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.8% 8.7–11.1% 8.4–11.5% 8.1–11.8% 7.6–12.5%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 9.2% 8.1–10.5% 7.8–10.8% 7.6–11.2% 7.1–11.8%
Eesti 200 4.4% 5.3% 4.5–6.3% 4.3–6.6% 4.1–6.9% 3.7–7.4%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 39 37–40 36–41 35–43 34–45
Eesti Keskerakond 26 22 20–24 20–25 20–25 19–27
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 18 17–20 16–20 16–21 15–22
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 10 9–11 8–11 8–12 7–12
Erakond Isamaa 12 9 7–10 7–11 7–11 7–12
Eesti 200 0 4 0–5 0–5 0–6 0–6
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 2% 99.8% Last Result
35 2% 98%  
36 3% 96%  
37 4% 93%  
38 21% 89%  
39 24% 68% Median
40 35% 44%  
41 4% 9%  
42 2% 4%  
43 0.2% 3%  
44 1.4% 2%  
45 1.0% 1.1%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.2% 99.9%  
19 1.4% 99.7%  
20 10% 98%  
21 19% 88%  
22 24% 69% Median
23 25% 45%  
24 14% 21%  
25 4% 7%  
26 2% 2% Last Result
27 0.5% 0.6%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 1.4% 99.8%  
16 7% 98%  
17 23% 91%  
18 25% 69% Median
19 19% 43% Last Result
20 21% 25%  
21 2% 4%  
22 1.4% 2%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 2% 99.9%  
8 7% 98%  
9 36% 91%  
10 36% 55% Last Result, Median
11 16% 20%  
12 4% 4%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100%  
7 15% 99.8%  
8 19% 85%  
9 30% 66% Median
10 27% 36%  
11 8% 9%  
12 0.6% 0.6% Last Result
13 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 45% 100% Last Result
1 0% 55%  
2 0% 55%  
3 0% 55%  
4 15% 55% Median
5 37% 41%  
6 3% 4%  
7 0.4% 0.4%  
8 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 80 100% 77–83 76–83 76–84 75–85
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 67 100% 63–69 63–70 62–70 61–72
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 62 100% 59–63 58–65 57–66 56–68
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 58 99.5% 55–60 54–61 53–62 51–64
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 58 99.5% 55–60 54–61 53–62 51–64
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 57 100% 55–60 54–60 54–60 53–62
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 50 37% 47–52 46–53 45–53 45–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 49 15% 46–51 45–52 44–53 43–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 49 5% 46–50 45–50 44–52 41–54
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 41 0% 38–43 37–44 37–45 36–47
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 41 0% 40–42 39–43 39–43 35–44
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 32 0% 30–33 30–34 29–34 28–36
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 28 0% 26–31 25–31 25–31 23–32

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.4% 100%  
75 2% 99.6%  
76 5% 98%  
77 16% 93%  
78 15% 77%  
79 10% 61% Last Result, Median
80 9% 51%  
81 19% 42%  
82 7% 24%  
83 12% 17%  
84 4% 5%  
85 0.3% 0.6%  
86 0.3% 0.3%  
87 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 1.0% 99.9%  
62 2% 98.9%  
63 18% 97%  
64 12% 79%  
65 8% 67% Last Result
66 6% 59% Median
67 13% 53%  
68 7% 40%  
69 28% 33%  
70 4% 5%  
71 0.4% 1.0%  
72 0.5% 0.6%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 1.1% 99.9%  
57 2% 98.8%  
58 2% 96%  
59 14% 94%  
60 15% 81% Last Result
61 13% 65% Median
62 26% 52%  
63 17% 26%  
64 3% 9%  
65 3% 6%  
66 1.4% 4%  
67 0.2% 2%  
68 2% 2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.5% 100%  
51 1.1% 99.5% Majority
52 0.6% 98%  
53 0.6% 98%  
54 4% 97%  
55 8% 93%  
56 17% 85% Last Result
57 10% 68%  
58 21% 59% Median
59 16% 37%  
60 15% 22%  
61 2% 7%  
62 4% 5%  
63 0.6% 1.2%  
64 0.5% 0.6%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.5% 100%  
51 1.1% 99.5% Majority
52 0.6% 98%  
53 0.6% 98%  
54 4% 97%  
55 8% 93%  
56 17% 85% Last Result
57 10% 68%  
58 21% 59% Median
59 16% 37%  
60 15% 22%  
61 2% 7%  
62 4% 5%  
63 0.6% 1.2%  
64 0.5% 0.6%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.4% 100%  
53 0.7% 99.6% Last Result
54 6% 98.9%  
55 7% 92%  
56 36% 86%  
57 2% 50% Median
58 10% 48%  
59 14% 38%  
60 21% 23%  
61 2% 2%  
62 0.5% 0.5%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 3% 99.8%  
46 2% 97%  
47 20% 94%  
48 9% 74%  
49 10% 65% Median
50 18% 55%  
51 15% 37% Majority
52 15% 23%  
53 6% 8%  
54 0.8% 2%  
55 0.1% 1.3%  
56 1.2% 1.2%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 1.2% 99.6%  
44 1.1% 98% Last Result
45 3% 97%  
46 5% 94%  
47 14% 89%  
48 12% 75%  
49 31% 62% Median
50 17% 32%  
51 9% 15% Majority
52 2% 6%  
53 3% 5%  
54 0.1% 1.2%  
55 1.0% 1.1%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.8% 100%  
42 0.9% 99.1%  
43 0.6% 98%  
44 1.0% 98%  
45 6% 97%  
46 21% 91% Last Result
47 8% 70%  
48 9% 62% Median
49 28% 53%  
50 20% 25%  
51 2% 5% Majority
52 2% 3%  
53 0.7% 1.3%  
54 0.5% 0.6%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.6% 99.8%  
37 5% 99.2%  
38 9% 94%  
39 16% 85%  
40 16% 69% Median
41 21% 53%  
42 14% 32%  
43 12% 18%  
44 2% 6%  
45 2% 4% Last Result
46 0.7% 2%  
47 1.3% 1.3%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.8%  
36 0.2% 99.3%  
37 0% 99.1%  
38 0% 99.0%  
39 5% 99.0%  
40 27% 94%  
41 40% 68% Median
42 20% 28%  
43 8% 8%  
44 0.3% 0.5%  
45 0% 0.2%  
46 0% 0.2%  
47 0% 0.2%  
48 0% 0.1% Last Result
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.8%  
28 1.0% 99.6%  
29 3% 98.6%  
30 12% 96%  
31 12% 84%  
32 35% 72% Median
33 28% 37%  
34 6% 9%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0.3% 0.5% Last Result
37 0% 0.2%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100%  
23 0.5% 99.9%  
24 0.8% 99.4%  
25 5% 98.6%  
26 11% 94%  
27 25% 82%  
28 17% 57% Median
29 23% 40% Last Result
30 5% 17%  
31 11% 11%  
32 0.4% 0.6%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations