Poll Average
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Summary
The table below lists the polls on which the average is based. They are the most recent polls (less than 90 days old) registered and analyzed so far.
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Ref | Kesk | EKRE | I | SDE | E200 | Rohelised | EVA | EP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 March 2019 | General Election | 28.9% 34 |
23.1% 26 |
17.8% 19 |
11.4% 12 |
9.8% 10 |
4.4% 0 |
1.8% 0 |
1.2% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
| N/A | Poll Average | 23–35% 25–41 |
14–20% 14–21 |
13–24% 13–27 |
6–10% 5–10 |
7–13% 6–13 |
12–17% 12–19 |
1–3% 0 |
N/A N/A |
1–4% 0 |
| 28 February–3 March 2023 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
30–36% 35–42 |
13–17% 13–18 |
14–18% 14–19 |
6–9% 5–9 |
6–10% 5–9 |
13–18% 14–19 |
1–3% 0 |
N/A N/A |
2–4% 0 |
| 28 February–2 March 2023 | Kantar Emor ERR |
27–31% 31–37 |
14–18% 15–20 |
13–16% 13–17 |
6–9% 5–8 |
10–13% 10–14 |
14–17% 14–19 |
2–3% 0 |
N/A N/A |
2–3% 0 |
| 20–28 February 2023 | Turu-uuringute AS Eesti Päevaleht |
26–34% 30–40 |
14–20% 15–22 |
12–18% 13–20 |
6–10% 6–10 |
7–12% 6–12 |
11–17% 12–18 |
1–3% 0 |
N/A N/A |
2–5% 0 |
| 10–27 February 2023 | RAIT Faktum&Ariko | 22–27% 24–31 |
15–20% 16–22 |
20–25% 22–28 |
7–10% 6–10 |
7–10% 6–10 |
11–16% 11–16 |
1–3% 0 |
N/A N/A |
1–2% 0 |
| 3 March 2019 | General Election | 28.9% 34 |
23.1% 26 |
17.8% 19 |
11.4% 12 |
9.8% 10 |
4.4% 0 |
1.8% 0 |
1.2% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
Only polls for which at least the sample size has been published are included in the table above.
Legend:
- Top half of each row: Voting intentions (95% confidence interval)
- Bottom half of each row: Seat projections for the Riigikogu (95% confidence interval)
- Ref: Eesti Reformierakond
- Kesk: Eesti Keskerakond
- EKRE: Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
- I: Erakond Isamaa
- SDE: Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
- E200: Eesti 200
- Rohelised: Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised
- EVA: Eesti Vabaerakond
- EP: Erakond Parempoolsed
- N/A (single party): Party not included the published results
- N/A (entire row): Calculation for this opinion poll not started yet
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eesti Reformierakond | 28.9% | 29.4% | 24.2–33.8% | 23.4–34.6% | 22.8–35.3% | 21.8–36.4% |
| Eesti Keskerakond | 23.1% | 16.3% | 14.5–18.4% | 14.0–19.0% | 13.6–19.5% | 12.8–20.6% |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 17.8% | 15.6% | 13.6–22.8% | 13.2–23.6% | 12.8–24.2% | 12.1–25.3% |
| Erakond Isamaa | 11.4% | 7.7% | 6.6–9.1% | 6.3–9.5% | 6.1–9.9% | 5.6–10.7% |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 9.8% | 8.8% | 7.2–11.7% | 6.8–12.2% | 6.6–12.6% | 6.0–13.2% |
| Eesti 200 | 4.4% | 14.7% | 12.6–16.4% | 12.1–16.9% | 11.7–17.3% | 10.9–18.1% |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.5–2.8% | 1.4–3.0% | 1.2–3.2% | 1.0–3.6% |
| Eesti Vabaerakond | 1.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Erakond Parempoolsed | 0.0% | 2.6% | 1.0–3.6% | 0.8–3.9% | 0.7–4.2% | 0.6–4.8% |
Eesti Reformierakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5–20.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 1.5% | 99.7% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 4% | 98% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 7% | 94% | |
| 24.5–25.5% | 7% | 87% | |
| 25.5–26.5% | 5% | 81% | |
| 26.5–27.5% | 5% | 76% | |
| 27.5–28.5% | 10% | 71% | |
| 28.5–29.5% | 13% | 61% | Last Result, Median |
| 29.5–30.5% | 11% | 48% | |
| 30.5–31.5% | 8% | 36% | |
| 31.5–32.5% | 8% | 28% | |
| 32.5–33.5% | 8% | 20% | |
| 33.5–34.5% | 6% | 12% | |
| 34.5–35.5% | 4% | 5% | |
| 35.5–36.5% | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 36.5–37.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 37.5–38.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38.5–39.5% | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10.5–11.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 8% | 98% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 19% | 89% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 26% | 70% | Median |
| 16.5–17.5% | 22% | 44% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 14% | 22% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 6% | 9% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 2% | 2% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5–10.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 8% | 98.6% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 19% | 91% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 21% | 72% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 15% | 51% | Median |
| 16.5–17.5% | 7% | 35% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 2% | 28% | Last Result |
| 18.5–19.5% | 0.8% | 26% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 2% | 25% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 4% | 23% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 7% | 19% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 6% | 12% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 4% | 5% | |
| 24.5–25.5% | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 25.5–26.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 26.5–27.5% | 0% | 0% |
Erakond Isamaa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 9% | 99.6% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 35% | 90% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 35% | 55% | Median |
| 8.5–9.5% | 15% | 20% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 4% | 5% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | Last Result |
| 11.5–12.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 0% | 0% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5–5.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 15% | 98% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 27% | 82% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 19% | 55% | Median |
| 9.5–10.5% | 10% | 36% | Last Result |
| 10.5–11.5% | 13% | 25% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 10% | 12% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 2% | 3% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 0% | 0% |
Eesti 200
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 7% | 98% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 16% | 91% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 22% | 75% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 26% | 53% | Median |
| 15.5–16.5% | 19% | 27% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 7% | 8% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 0% | 0% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 0.5–1.5% | 12% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 70% | 88% | Last Result, Median |
| 2.5–3.5% | 17% | 18% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 0% |
Erakond Parempoolsed
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0.5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 22% | 99.5% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 28% | 78% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 39% | 50% | Median |
| 3.5–4.5% | 10% | 11% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eesti Reformierakond | 34 | 34 | 27–39 | 26–40 | 25–41 | 24–42 |
| Eesti Keskerakond | 26 | 17 | 15–20 | 14–21 | 14–21 | 13–23 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 19 | 16 | 14–26 | 14–26 | 13–27 | 12–28 |
| Erakond Isamaa | 12 | 7 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 | 5–11 |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 10 | 8 | 7–12 | 6–13 | 6–13 | 5–14 |
| Eesti 200 | 0 | 15 | 13–18 | 12–18 | 12–19 | 11–20 |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eesti Vabaerakond | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Erakond Parempoolsed | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Eesti Reformierakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 26 | 3% | 97% | |
| 27 | 6% | 94% | |
| 28 | 5% | 88% | |
| 29 | 4% | 83% | |
| 30 | 3% | 78% | |
| 31 | 3% | 75% | |
| 32 | 6% | 72% | |
| 33 | 9% | 66% | |
| 34 | 11% | 57% | Last Result, Median |
| 35 | 11% | 46% | |
| 36 | 7% | 36% | |
| 37 | 7% | 28% | |
| 38 | 8% | 22% | |
| 39 | 7% | 14% | |
| 40 | 4% | 7% | |
| 41 | 2% | 3% | |
| 42 | 1.1% | 1.5% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 14 | 5% | 98.9% | |
| 15 | 9% | 94% | |
| 16 | 15% | 84% | |
| 17 | 20% | 70% | Median |
| 18 | 19% | 50% | |
| 19 | 16% | 31% | |
| 20 | 9% | 15% | |
| 21 | 4% | 6% | |
| 22 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 14 | 9% | 96% | |
| 15 | 20% | 87% | |
| 16 | 18% | 67% | Median |
| 17 | 13% | 50% | |
| 18 | 7% | 36% | |
| 19 | 3% | 29% | Last Result |
| 20 | 1.0% | 26% | |
| 21 | 0.5% | 25% | |
| 22 | 1.0% | 25% | |
| 23 | 3% | 24% | |
| 24 | 5% | 21% | |
| 25 | 6% | 16% | |
| 26 | 6% | 10% | |
| 27 | 3% | 5% | |
| 28 | 2% | 2% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Erakond Isamaa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 20% | 96% | |
| 7 | 38% | 76% | Median |
| 8 | 23% | 38% | |
| 9 | 11% | 15% | |
| 10 | 3% | 4% | |
| 11 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 6 | 7% | 99.2% | |
| 7 | 21% | 92% | |
| 8 | 21% | 71% | Median |
| 9 | 15% | 50% | |
| 10 | 9% | 35% | Last Result |
| 11 | 10% | 26% | |
| 12 | 10% | 16% | |
| 13 | 6% | 7% | |
| 14 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti 200
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 5% | 98.6% | |
| 13 | 10% | 94% | |
| 14 | 17% | 84% | |
| 15 | 18% | 67% | Median |
| 16 | 22% | 49% | |
| 17 | 16% | 27% | |
| 18 | 9% | 12% | |
| 19 | 2% | 3% | |
| 20 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Eesti Vabaerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.
Erakond Parempoolsed
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 79 | 70 | 100% | 65–73 | 65–74 | 64–74 | 63–75 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa | 65 | 60 | 100% | 55–63 | 54–64 | 54–64 | 52–66 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 53 | 52 | 64% | 48–56 | 47–57 | 47–57 | 45–59 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond | 60 | 52 | 62% | 46–55 | 45–57 | 44–57 | 42–59 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Eesti Vabaerakond | 56 | 51 | 60% | 43–54 | 42–55 | 41–56 | 40–57 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 56 | 51 | 60% | 43–54 | 42–55 | 41–56 | 40–57 |
| Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa | 57 | 41 | 19% | 38–52 | 37–53 | 36–54 | 35–56 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 44 | 44 | 0.2% | 35–47 | 34–48 | 33–49 | 32–50 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa | 46 | 41 | 0.1% | 35–46 | 34–47 | 33–48 | 32–49 |
| Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 45 | 34 | 0% | 31–44 | 30–45 | 29–46 | 28–47 |
| Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 48 | 34 | 0% | 29–37 | 28–38 | 28–39 | 26–40 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 29 | 26 | 0% | 23–33 | 22–34 | 21–35 | 20–37 |
| Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 36 | 27 | 0% | 22–30 | 22–31 | 21–31 | 20–32 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 63 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 64 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 65 | 6% | 96% | |
| 66 | 8% | 90% | |
| 67 | 9% | 81% | Median |
| 68 | 9% | 73% | |
| 69 | 11% | 63% | |
| 70 | 14% | 52% | |
| 71 | 13% | 38% | |
| 72 | 13% | 25% | |
| 73 | 7% | 12% | |
| 74 | 4% | 5% | |
| 75 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.1% | 100% | Majority |
| 52 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 54 | 4% | 98% | |
| 55 | 8% | 93% | |
| 56 | 8% | 85% | |
| 57 | 9% | 77% | Median |
| 58 | 8% | 68% | |
| 59 | 9% | 60% | |
| 60 | 14% | 51% | |
| 61 | 12% | 37% | |
| 62 | 9% | 25% | |
| 63 | 10% | 16% | |
| 64 | 4% | 6% | |
| 65 | 2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 66 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 46 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 47 | 4% | 98% | |
| 48 | 8% | 93% | |
| 49 | 11% | 85% | |
| 50 | 11% | 75% | Median |
| 51 | 10% | 64% | Majority |
| 52 | 11% | 54% | |
| 53 | 11% | 43% | Last Result |
| 54 | 11% | 33% | |
| 55 | 8% | 21% | |
| 56 | 8% | 14% | |
| 57 | 3% | 6% | |
| 58 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 59 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 43 | 1.1% | 99.4% | |
| 44 | 2% | 98% | |
| 45 | 4% | 96% | |
| 46 | 5% | 92% | |
| 47 | 5% | 87% | |
| 48 | 4% | 81% | |
| 49 | 7% | 77% | |
| 50 | 8% | 70% | |
| 51 | 11% | 62% | Median, Majority |
| 52 | 13% | 52% | |
| 53 | 10% | 39% | |
| 54 | 9% | 29% | |
| 55 | 9% | 19% | |
| 56 | 4% | 10% | |
| 57 | 3% | 5% | |
| 58 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 61 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Eesti Vabaerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 41 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 42 | 5% | 96% | |
| 43 | 5% | 92% | |
| 44 | 6% | 86% | |
| 45 | 4% | 81% | |
| 46 | 2% | 77% | |
| 47 | 1.3% | 75% | |
| 48 | 2% | 74% | |
| 49 | 4% | 72% | Median |
| 50 | 8% | 68% | |
| 51 | 11% | 60% | Majority |
| 52 | 14% | 49% | |
| 53 | 17% | 35% | |
| 54 | 9% | 17% | |
| 55 | 5% | 9% | |
| 56 | 3% | 3% | Last Result |
| 57 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 41 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 42 | 5% | 96% | |
| 43 | 5% | 92% | |
| 44 | 6% | 86% | |
| 45 | 4% | 81% | |
| 46 | 2% | 77% | |
| 47 | 1.3% | 75% | |
| 48 | 2% | 74% | |
| 49 | 4% | 72% | Median |
| 50 | 8% | 68% | |
| 51 | 11% | 60% | Majority |
| 52 | 14% | 49% | |
| 53 | 17% | 35% | |
| 54 | 9% | 17% | |
| 55 | 5% | 9% | |
| 56 | 3% | 3% | Last Result |
| 57 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 36 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 37 | 5% | 96% | |
| 38 | 11% | 91% | |
| 39 | 14% | 80% | |
| 40 | 13% | 66% | Median |
| 41 | 9% | 53% | |
| 42 | 7% | 44% | |
| 43 | 4% | 37% | |
| 44 | 4% | 33% | |
| 45 | 2% | 29% | |
| 46 | 2% | 27% | |
| 47 | 0.7% | 26% | |
| 48 | 1.1% | 25% | |
| 49 | 2% | 24% | |
| 50 | 4% | 22% | |
| 51 | 5% | 19% | Majority |
| 52 | 6% | 14% | |
| 53 | 4% | 8% | |
| 54 | 2% | 4% | |
| 55 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 33 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 34 | 4% | 97% | |
| 35 | 6% | 93% | |
| 36 | 6% | 87% | |
| 37 | 4% | 82% | |
| 38 | 2% | 78% | |
| 39 | 1.4% | 76% | |
| 40 | 2% | 74% | |
| 41 | 2% | 73% | |
| 42 | 4% | 71% | Median |
| 43 | 8% | 66% | |
| 44 | 11% | 58% | Last Result |
| 45 | 14% | 47% | |
| 46 | 16% | 34% | |
| 47 | 11% | 18% | |
| 48 | 4% | 7% | |
| 49 | 2% | 3% | |
| 50 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 52 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 33 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 34 | 4% | 97% | |
| 35 | 6% | 93% | |
| 36 | 5% | 87% | |
| 37 | 5% | 82% | |
| 38 | 4% | 77% | |
| 39 | 6% | 73% | |
| 40 | 10% | 67% | |
| 41 | 9% | 57% | Median |
| 42 | 10% | 48% | |
| 43 | 7% | 38% | |
| 44 | 8% | 31% | |
| 45 | 8% | 23% | |
| 46 | 8% | 15% | Last Result |
| 47 | 4% | 7% | |
| 48 | 2% | 3% | |
| 49 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 30 | 5% | 97% | |
| 31 | 10% | 92% | |
| 32 | 16% | 82% | |
| 33 | 15% | 66% | Median |
| 34 | 10% | 51% | |
| 35 | 7% | 41% | |
| 36 | 4% | 34% | |
| 37 | 3% | 30% | |
| 38 | 1.5% | 27% | |
| 39 | 0.8% | 26% | |
| 40 | 0.8% | 25% | |
| 41 | 2% | 24% | |
| 42 | 3% | 23% | |
| 43 | 5% | 20% | |
| 44 | 5% | 15% | |
| 45 | 5% | 9% | Last Result |
| 46 | 2% | 4% | |
| 47 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 27 | 1.5% | 99.4% | |
| 28 | 5% | 98% | |
| 29 | 7% | 93% | |
| 30 | 5% | 86% | |
| 31 | 4% | 81% | |
| 32 | 8% | 77% | Median |
| 33 | 9% | 69% | |
| 34 | 12% | 60% | |
| 35 | 14% | 48% | |
| 36 | 16% | 34% | |
| 37 | 10% | 18% | |
| 38 | 5% | 8% | |
| 39 | 2% | 4% | |
| 40 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 22 | 5% | 97% | |
| 23 | 8% | 92% | |
| 24 | 13% | 83% | Median |
| 25 | 11% | 70% | |
| 26 | 11% | 59% | |
| 27 | 10% | 48% | |
| 28 | 10% | 38% | |
| 29 | 3% | 29% | Last Result |
| 30 | 2% | 25% | |
| 31 | 3% | 23% | |
| 32 | 4% | 20% | |
| 33 | 6% | 15% | |
| 34 | 5% | 10% | |
| 35 | 3% | 5% | |
| 36 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 21 | 4% | 99.0% | |
| 22 | 8% | 95% | |
| 23 | 6% | 87% | |
| 24 | 6% | 81% | |
| 25 | 9% | 75% | Median |
| 26 | 11% | 65% | |
| 27 | 12% | 54% | |
| 28 | 15% | 42% | |
| 29 | 13% | 27% | |
| 30 | 9% | 14% | |
| 31 | 4% | 6% | |
| 32 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 33 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
- Number of polls included in this average: 4
- Lowest number of simulations done in a poll included in this average: 1,048,576
- Total number of simulations done in the polls included in this average: 4,194,304
- Error estimate: 1.91%