Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 2–8 July 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 31.9% 30.1–33.8% 29.5–34.4% 29.1–34.9% 28.2–35.8%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 22.3% 20.7–24.1% 20.2–24.6% 19.8–25.0% 19.1–25.8%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 18.0% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.1% 15.7–20.5% 15.1–21.3%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 11.0% 9.8–12.4% 9.5–12.8% 9.2–13.1% 8.7–13.8%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 8.2% 7.2–9.4% 6.9–9.8% 6.6–10.1% 6.2–10.7%
Eesti 200 4.4% 4.3% 3.6–5.2% 3.4–5.5% 3.2–5.7% 2.9–6.2%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.6% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 37 35–39 34–40 33–41 32–41
Eesti Keskerakond 26 24 23–27 22–27 21–28 21–29
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 19 18–22 17–23 16–23 16–23
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 11 10–12 9–13 9–13 8–14
Erakond Isamaa 12 8 7–9 6–10 6–10 5–10
Eesti 200 0 0 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–6
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.4% 100%  
32 0.5% 99.5%  
33 3% 99.0%  
34 5% 96% Last Result
35 5% 91%  
36 15% 87%  
37 28% 71% Median
38 28% 44%  
39 10% 16%  
40 3% 7%  
41 3% 3%  
42 0.2% 0.5%  
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.4% 100%  
21 3% 99.6%  
22 4% 97%  
23 6% 93%  
24 38% 87% Median
25 20% 49%  
26 6% 29% Last Result
27 20% 23%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.9% 1.0%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.2% 99.9%  
16 2% 99.8%  
17 5% 97%  
18 8% 92%  
19 47% 84% Last Result, Median
20 17% 37%  
21 10% 20%  
22 4% 11%  
23 6% 6%  
24 0.3% 0.3%  
25 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.8% 99.9%  
9 6% 99.2%  
10 37% 93% Last Result
11 18% 57% Median
12 31% 38%  
13 6% 7%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.4% 0.4%  
16 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.6% 100%  
6 6% 99.4%  
7 31% 94%  
8 20% 62% Median
9 36% 42%  
10 6% 7%  
11 0.4% 0.5%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 11%  
2 0% 11%  
3 0% 11%  
4 3% 11%  
5 7% 8%  
6 0.8% 0.8%  
7 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 82 100% 79–84 78–84 77–85 76–85
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 65 100% 62–67 61–68 60–68 58–70
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 61 100% 60–65 59–65 58–65 56–67
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 57 99.6% 54–59 53–60 52–61 51–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 56 99.2% 54–58 52–60 51–60 50–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 56 99.2% 54–58 52–60 51–60 50–61
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 52 86% 50–55 49–55 48–56 47–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 48 8% 46–50 45–51 44–52 42–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 45 0.2% 43–47 42–49 41–49 39–50
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 44 0.1% 41–47 41–47 41–48 39–50
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 44 0% 42–46 40–47 40–48 38–49
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 36 0% 34–38 33–38 32–39 31–40
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 30 0% 29–33 28–34 27–34 26–35

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.2% 99.9%  
76 0.9% 99.7%  
77 3% 98.8%  
78 3% 96%  
79 4% 92% Last Result
80 28% 88% Median
81 5% 60%  
82 22% 56%  
83 15% 34%  
84 16% 19%  
85 3% 3%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.7% 99.9%  
59 0.8% 99.2%  
60 2% 98%  
61 3% 96%  
62 5% 94%  
63 8% 89%  
64 24% 81% Median
65 25% 57% Last Result
66 18% 32%  
67 8% 14%  
68 4% 6%  
69 1.4% 2%  
70 0.6% 0.7%  
71 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.3% 100%  
55 0% 99.7%  
56 0.4% 99.7%  
57 1.5% 99.2%  
58 2% 98%  
59 5% 95%  
60 11% 91% Last Result
61 31% 80% Median
62 6% 49%  
63 22% 43%  
64 4% 21%  
65 15% 17%  
66 1.0% 2%  
67 1.1% 1.3%  
68 0.2% 0.2%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.3% 100%  
51 1.0% 99.6% Majority
52 2% 98.6%  
53 3% 96% Last Result
54 6% 93%  
55 5% 87%  
56 25% 82% Median
57 30% 56%  
58 10% 27%  
59 11% 16%  
60 3% 5%  
61 2% 3%  
62 0.1% 0.3%  
63 0.2% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.7% 99.9%  
51 2% 99.2% Majority
52 3% 97%  
53 3% 94%  
54 12% 92%  
55 21% 80%  
56 9% 59% Last Result, Median
57 18% 50%  
58 23% 31%  
59 1.2% 8%  
60 6% 7%  
61 0.5% 0.7%  
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.7% 99.9%  
51 2% 99.2% Majority
52 3% 97%  
53 3% 94%  
54 12% 92%  
55 21% 80%  
56 9% 59% Last Result, Median
57 18% 50%  
58 23% 31%  
59 1.2% 8%  
60 6% 7%  
61 0.5% 0.7%  
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.2% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.8%  
47 0.5% 99.6%  
48 3% 99.2%  
49 4% 96%  
50 7% 92%  
51 9% 86% Median, Majority
52 29% 76%  
53 27% 48%  
54 9% 21%  
55 8% 12%  
56 3% 4%  
57 0.7% 1.0% Last Result
58 0.3% 0.4%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.6% 99.9%  
43 1.2% 99.4%  
44 2% 98% Last Result
45 5% 96%  
46 9% 91%  
47 10% 83%  
48 28% 72% Median
49 28% 44%  
50 8% 16%  
51 4% 8% Majority
52 3% 4%  
53 0.8% 1.0%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.5% 99.9%  
40 2% 99.4%  
41 2% 98%  
42 4% 96%  
43 10% 92%  
44 14% 82%  
45 21% 69% Median
46 24% 47% Last Result
47 15% 23%  
48 2% 8%  
49 5% 6%  
50 0.4% 0.6%  
51 0.2% 0.2% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.3% 100%  
39 0.5% 99.7%  
40 0.7% 99.2%  
41 9% 98%  
42 3% 90%  
43 24% 87% Median
44 20% 62%  
45 9% 42% Last Result
46 19% 33%  
47 10% 14%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.8% 1.4%  
50 0.6% 0.6%  
51 0% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.8% 99.9%  
39 1.1% 99.1%  
40 3% 98%  
41 4% 95%  
42 13% 90%  
43 12% 78% Median
44 30% 66%  
45 26% 36%  
46 3% 10%  
47 4% 7%  
48 1.3% 3% Last Result
49 1.2% 1.3%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 2% 99.9%  
32 3% 98%  
33 5% 96%  
34 11% 91%  
35 19% 80% Median
36 27% 61% Last Result
37 23% 35%  
38 7% 11%  
39 2% 4%  
40 2% 2%  
41 0.3% 0.3%  
42 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.3% 100%  
26 0.6% 99.7%  
27 3% 99.0%  
28 5% 96%  
29 26% 91% Last Result
30 15% 65% Median
31 26% 50%  
32 9% 24%  
33 8% 15%  
34 5% 6%  
35 0.8% 1.1%  
36 0.3% 0.3%  
37 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations