Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 8–15 July 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 37.7% 35.8–39.7% 35.2–40.3% 34.8–40.8% 33.8–41.7%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 16.4% 15.0–18.0% 14.6–18.4% 14.2–18.8% 13.6–19.6%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 15.8% 14.4–17.4% 14.0–17.8% 13.7–18.2% 13.0–19.0%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 11.0% 9.8–12.4% 9.5–12.8% 9.2–13.1% 8.7–13.8%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.7% 7.7–10.0% 7.3–10.3% 7.1–10.6% 6.6–11.2%
Eesti 200 4.4% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.9–3.9% 1.6–4.3%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 1.1% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 46 43–48 43–49 42–50 40–51
Eesti Keskerakond 26 17 15–20 15–20 15–20 14–22
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 17 15–19 15–19 15–20 14–21
Erakond Isamaa 12 11 10–13 10–13 9–14 8–15
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 9 7–10 7–10 7–11 6–12
Eesti 200 0 0 0 0–4 0–5 0–5
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.8% 99.9%  
41 1.4% 99.1%  
42 2% 98%  
43 6% 95%  
44 18% 90%  
45 5% 72%  
46 18% 67% Median
47 33% 49%  
48 8% 16%  
49 3% 8%  
50 4% 5%  
51 0.5% 0.6% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.8% 100%  
15 9% 99.1%  
16 5% 90%  
17 38% 85% Median
18 21% 47%  
19 8% 26%  
20 16% 18%  
21 1.4% 2%  
22 0.4% 0.5%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.3% 100%  
14 2% 99.7%  
15 11% 98%  
16 26% 86%  
17 32% 60% Median
18 12% 29%  
19 11% 16% Last Result
20 3% 5%  
21 1.2% 1.5%  
22 0.2% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.5% 100%  
9 4% 99.4%  
10 22% 95%  
11 35% 73% Median
12 16% 38% Last Result
13 17% 22%  
14 4% 5%  
15 0.6% 0.6%  
16 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.8% 100%  
7 10% 99.2%  
8 32% 89%  
9 37% 57% Median
10 16% 20% Last Result
11 3% 3%  
12 0.6% 0.7%  
13 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 8%  
2 0% 8%  
3 0% 8%  
4 3% 8%  
5 4% 4%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 81 100% 79–83 78–84 77–84 74–85
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 75 100% 72–76 71–77 70–78 69–79
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 67 100% 63–69 62–69 61–69 60–71
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 67 100% 63–69 62–69 61–69 60–71
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 64 100% 61–66 60–67 60–67 58–68
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 64 100% 60–65 60–65 59–66 57–69
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 58 99.9% 54–60 54–60 53–61 51–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 55 97% 52–58 51–58 50–59 49–60
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 46 2% 43–49 43–50 42–50 41–51
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 37 0% 36–41 35–41 34–41 32–42
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 34 0% 32–37 32–38 31–39 30–40
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 26 0% 24–28 24–29 23–30 22–31
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 26 0% 24–28 23–28 23–29 22–30

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.2% 100%  
74 0.4% 99.8%  
75 0.7% 99.5%  
76 0.3% 98.8%  
77 1.0% 98%  
78 7% 97%  
79 11% 90% Last Result
80 20% 80% Median
81 40% 60%  
82 9% 20%  
83 5% 11%  
84 5% 6%  
85 0.5% 0.6%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100% Last Result
66 0% 100%  
67 0.2% 100%  
68 0.3% 99.8%  
69 1.2% 99.5%  
70 1.3% 98%  
71 3% 97%  
72 7% 94%  
73 16% 87%  
74 19% 71% Median
75 35% 52%  
76 10% 17%  
77 3% 7%  
78 3% 4%  
79 0.8% 0.9%  
80 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Eesti Vabaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100% Last Result
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.5% 99.7%  
61 2% 99.2%  
62 6% 97%  
63 5% 91%  
64 12% 86%  
65 12% 74%  
66 8% 63% Median
67 32% 55%  
68 11% 23%  
69 10% 12%  
70 2% 2%  
71 0.6% 0.6%  
72 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100% Last Result
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.5% 99.7%  
61 2% 99.2%  
62 6% 97%  
63 5% 91%  
64 12% 86%  
65 12% 74%  
66 8% 63% Median
67 32% 55%  
68 11% 23%  
69 10% 12%  
70 2% 2%  
71 0.6% 0.6%  
72 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.2% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.8%  
58 0.6% 99.6%  
59 1.4% 99.0%  
60 4% 98% Last Result
61 5% 93%  
62 17% 88%  
63 5% 71% Median
64 39% 66%  
65 11% 27%  
66 9% 15%  
67 5% 7%  
68 1.4% 2%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.2% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0.2% 100%  
57 0.5% 99.8%  
58 0.8% 99.3%  
59 2% 98.5%  
60 9% 96%  
61 10% 87%  
62 13% 77%  
63 12% 64% Median
64 38% 52%  
65 9% 14%  
66 3% 5%  
67 0.4% 1.4%  
68 0.3% 1.1%  
69 0.7% 0.7%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100% Last Result
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.5% 99.9% Majority
52 1.4% 99.4%  
53 3% 98%  
54 6% 96%  
55 10% 89%  
56 8% 79%  
57 10% 71% Median
58 35% 60%  
59 15% 25%  
60 7% 10%  
61 2% 3%  
62 2% 2%  
63 0.2% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100% Last Result
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.4% 99.7%  
50 3% 99.3%  
51 5% 97% Majority
52 10% 91%  
53 11% 81%  
54 19% 70%  
55 8% 52% Median
56 23% 43%  
57 9% 20%  
58 8% 11%  
59 3% 4%  
60 0.6% 0.6%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.7% 99.9%  
42 4% 99.1%  
43 9% 96%  
44 11% 86%  
45 24% 75% Median
46 10% 51%  
47 18% 41%  
48 10% 24%  
49 8% 14%  
50 3% 6%  
51 2% 2% Majority
52 0.3% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.7% 99.9%  
33 0.5% 99.2%  
34 3% 98.7%  
35 4% 95%  
36 11% 91%  
37 39% 80% Median
38 11% 42%  
39 11% 30%  
40 9% 19%  
41 8% 10%  
42 2% 2%  
43 0.2% 0.3%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.7% 99.9%  
31 2% 99.1%  
32 10% 97%  
33 13% 87%  
34 34% 74% Median
35 9% 40%  
36 12% 31%  
37 10% 19%  
38 5% 9%  
39 3% 4%  
40 1.1% 1.3%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 1.0% 99.9%  
23 4% 98.9%  
24 6% 95%  
25 12% 89%  
26 36% 77% Median
27 19% 41%  
28 15% 22%  
29 4% 7%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0.6% 0.9%  
32 0.3% 0.3%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.3% 100%  
22 2% 99.7%  
23 8% 98%  
24 19% 90%  
25 10% 72%  
26 37% 61% Median
27 12% 25%  
28 9% 13%  
29 2% 4% Last Result
30 2% 2%  
31 0.2% 0.3%  
32 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations