Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 15–22 July 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 39.0% 37.1–41.0% 36.5–41.6% 36.0–42.1% 35.1–43.0%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 18.3% 16.8–20.0% 16.4–20.4% 16.0–20.8% 15.3–21.6%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 16.6% 15.2–18.2% 14.8–18.6% 14.4–19.0% 13.8–19.8%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.7% 6.7–8.9% 6.4–9.2% 6.2–9.5% 5.8–10.1%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.1% 6.1–9.4% 5.7–10.0%
Eesti 200 4.4% 4.4% 3.7–5.3% 3.5–5.6% 3.3–5.9% 3.0–6.4%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.9–3.9% 1.6–4.3%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 48 45–51 44–51 44–51 42–52
Eesti Keskerakond 26 20 18–21 18–22 17–23 16–24
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 18 16–20 16–20 15–21 15–22
Erakond Isamaa 12 8 6–9 6–9 6–10 5–10
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 7 6–8 6–9 6–9 5–10
Eesti 200 0 0 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–6
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.6% 99.7%  
43 1.2% 99.1%  
44 4% 98%  
45 10% 94%  
46 11% 83%  
47 10% 73%  
48 22% 63% Median
49 20% 41%  
50 7% 21%  
51 13% 14% Majority
52 0.9% 1.2%  
53 0.2% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.8% 99.9%  
17 2% 99.1%  
18 9% 97%  
19 23% 88%  
20 26% 65% Median
21 32% 39%  
22 4% 7%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.6% 0.9%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.3% 100%  
15 3% 99.7%  
16 14% 97%  
17 27% 83%  
18 16% 56% Median
19 21% 39% Last Result
20 14% 18%  
21 2% 4%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.0% 100%  
6 24% 99.0%  
7 22% 75%  
8 42% 53% Median
9 8% 10%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 13% 98%  
7 61% 85% Median
8 16% 24%  
9 6% 9%  
10 2% 2% Last Result
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 11%  
2 0% 11%  
3 0% 11%  
4 3% 11%  
5 8% 9%  
6 0.6% 0.6%  
7 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 86 100% 83–88 82–88 81–88 79–89
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 74 100% 71–75 69–75 69–76 67–77
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 69 100% 65–70 64–71 63–71 62–72
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 66 100% 63–67 62–68 62–69 59–70
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 62 100% 60–66 59–66 58–66 56–67
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 62 100% 60–66 59–66 58–66 56–67
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 55 98.6% 52–59 52–59 51–59 49–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 55 97% 53–58 51–58 50–59 49–59
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 45 1.1% 43–48 42–48 42–49 40–51
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 38 0% 35–41 34–41 34–42 33–43
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 34 0% 33–37 32–38 31–38 30–39
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 27 0% 26–29 25–30 24–30 23–32
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 25 0% 23–27 23–28 22–29 21–30

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.2% 100%  
79 0.4% 99.8% Last Result
80 0.9% 99.4%  
81 3% 98.6%  
82 2% 96%  
83 7% 94%  
84 8% 87%  
85 9% 79%  
86 34% 70% Median
87 13% 36%  
88 22% 23%  
89 1.2% 1.3%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100% Last Result
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 0.4% 99.6%  
68 0.6% 99.2%  
69 5% 98.6%  
70 4% 94%  
71 5% 90%  
72 8% 85%  
73 26% 77%  
74 27% 50% Median
75 19% 23%  
76 2% 4%  
77 2% 2%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
61 0.2% 99.8%  
62 1.4% 99.6%  
63 2% 98%  
64 5% 96%  
65 5% 91%  
66 10% 86%  
67 14% 76%  
68 9% 62% Median
69 35% 53%  
70 13% 18%  
71 4% 5%  
72 0.6% 0.9%  
73 0.2% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.5% 99.9%  
60 0.6% 99.4%  
61 1.0% 98.8%  
62 4% 98%  
63 9% 94%  
64 8% 86%  
65 6% 78%  
66 26% 72% Median
67 38% 46%  
68 4% 7%  
69 2% 3%  
70 1.1% 1.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.4% 99.8% Last Result
57 2% 99.4%  
58 2% 98%  
59 5% 96%  
60 9% 91%  
61 23% 82%  
62 12% 59%  
63 9% 48% Median
64 21% 39%  
65 5% 18%  
66 10% 13%  
67 2% 2%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.4% 99.8% Last Result
57 2% 99.4%  
58 2% 98%  
59 5% 96%  
60 9% 91%  
61 23% 82%  
62 12% 59%  
63 9% 48% Median
64 21% 39%  
65 5% 18%  
66 10% 13%  
67 2% 2%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100% Last Result
47 0% 100%  
48 0.2% 100%  
49 0.5% 99.8%  
50 0.7% 99.3%  
51 3% 98.6% Majority
52 6% 95%  
53 12% 89%  
54 21% 77%  
55 11% 56%  
56 6% 45% Median
57 24% 39%  
58 4% 15%  
59 11% 12%  
60 0.4% 0.5%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100% Last Result
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.4% 99.7%  
50 3% 99.4%  
51 2% 97% Majority
52 4% 94%  
53 18% 90%  
54 7% 72%  
55 20% 65% Median
56 24% 45%  
57 5% 22%  
58 14% 17%  
59 3% 3%  
60 0.2% 0.4%  
61 0.2% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.2% 100%  
40 0.5% 99.8%  
41 0.9% 99.3%  
42 5% 98%  
43 16% 93%  
44 6% 77%  
45 26% 71%  
46 21% 46% Median
47 5% 24%  
48 15% 20%  
49 2% 5%  
50 1.4% 2%  
51 0.9% 1.1% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 0.6% 99.8%  
34 5% 99.2%  
35 11% 95%  
36 6% 83%  
37 23% 77%  
38 10% 54% Median
39 11% 43%  
40 22% 32%  
41 8% 10%  
42 1.5% 3%  
43 1.0% 1.2%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.1% 99.9%  
30 0.4% 99.8%  
31 2% 99.4%  
32 4% 97%  
33 7% 93%  
34 41% 85%  
35 26% 44% Median
36 6% 18%  
37 6% 13%  
38 6% 7%  
39 0.3% 0.8%  
40 0.2% 0.5%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.6% 99.8%  
24 4% 99.2%  
25 3% 96%  
26 23% 93%  
27 31% 70% Median
28 26% 39%  
29 8% 14%  
30 3% 5%  
31 0.9% 2%  
32 0.9% 1.1%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 0.4% 99.8%  
22 3% 99.4%  
23 13% 96%  
24 26% 83%  
25 11% 57% Median
26 26% 46%  
27 10% 20%  
28 6% 9%  
29 0.7% 3% Last Result
30 2% 2%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations