Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 18–24 July 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 34.5% 32.8–36.2% 32.4–36.7% 31.9–37.1% 31.2–37.9%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 19.4% 18.0–20.9% 17.6–21.3% 17.3–21.6% 16.7–22.3%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 15.3% 14.1–16.7% 13.8–17.1% 13.5–17.4% 12.9–18.0%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 10.8% 9.8–12.0% 9.5–12.3% 9.2–12.6% 8.8–13.2%
Eesti 200 4.4% 7.9% 7.0–8.9% 6.8–9.2% 6.6–9.5% 6.1–10.0%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.8% 6.0–7.8% 5.8–8.1% 5.6–8.3% 5.2–8.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 39 36–41 36–42 35–42 34–43
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 20 18–22 18–22 18–23 17–24
Eesti Keskerakond 26 15 14–17 14–17 13–18 13–19
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 10 9–12 9–12 9–12 8–13
Eesti 200 0 7 6–8 6–9 6–9 5–9
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 5–7 5–7 5–8 4–8

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.7% 99.9% Last Result
35 2% 99.2%  
36 8% 97%  
37 14% 88%  
38 21% 75%  
39 22% 54% Median
40 17% 33%  
41 8% 15%  
42 5% 7%  
43 2% 2%  
44 0.3% 0.3%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 2% 99.8%  
18 8% 98%  
19 22% 89% Last Result
20 28% 67% Median
21 25% 39%  
22 10% 14%  
23 4% 5%  
24 0.8% 0.9%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.4% 100%  
13 4% 99.6%  
14 18% 95%  
15 32% 78% Median
16 30% 45%  
17 10% 15%  
18 4% 5%  
19 0.5% 0.6%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 2% 99.9%  
9 20% 98%  
10 35% 78% Last Result, Median
11 30% 44%  
12 12% 14%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.6% 100%  
6 24% 99.4%  
7 40% 76% Median
8 28% 36%  
9 8% 8%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0.9% 99.8%  
5 29% 98.9%  
6 40% 70% Median
7 27% 30%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 74 100% 72–77 71–78 71–79 69–80
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 65 100% 62–68 62–69 61–69 60–70
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 59 100% 56–62 56–62 55–63 54–64
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 55 99.1% 52–58 52–58 51–59 50–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 54 97% 52–57 51–58 50–58 49–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 49 23% 47–52 46–52 45–53 44–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 45 0.1% 42–47 42–48 41–48 40–50
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 41 0% 39–44 39–45 38–45 37–47
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 35 0% 33–38 33–38 32–39 31–40
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 32 0% 30–34 29–34 29–35 28–36
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 30 0% 28–33 28–33 27–34 26–35
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 26 0% 24–28 23–28 23–29 22–30

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.5% 99.9%  
70 2% 99.5%  
71 5% 98%  
72 16% 93%  
73 18% 77%  
74 16% 58% Median
75 14% 42%  
76 13% 28%  
77 6% 15%  
78 5% 8%  
79 2% 3% Last Result
80 0.8% 0.9%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.2% 100%  
60 0.9% 99.8%  
61 3% 98.9%  
62 9% 96%  
63 16% 87%  
64 17% 71%  
65 19% 54% Last Result, Median
66 11% 35%  
67 12% 24%  
68 7% 12%  
69 4% 5%  
70 1.0% 1.3%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.2% 100% Last Result
54 0.9% 99.8%  
55 4% 98.9%  
56 8% 95%  
57 14% 88%  
58 19% 74%  
59 19% 55% Median
60 15% 36%  
61 11% 21%  
62 6% 10%  
63 3% 4%  
64 1.0% 1.3%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.7% 99.9%  
51 2% 99.1% Majority
52 8% 97%  
53 14% 89%  
54 17% 75%  
55 16% 59% Median
56 16% 42% Last Result
57 15% 27%  
58 8% 12%  
59 3% 4%  
60 1.0% 1.4%  
61 0.3% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.6% 99.9%  
50 2% 99.3%  
51 7% 97% Majority
52 11% 90%  
53 20% 80%  
54 21% 60% Median
55 16% 39%  
56 11% 23%  
57 7% 12%  
58 3% 5%  
59 2% 2%  
60 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.5% 99.9% Last Result
45 3% 99.4%  
46 5% 97%  
47 13% 91%  
48 19% 78%  
49 18% 59% Median
50 18% 41%  
51 11% 23% Majority
52 8% 12%  
53 2% 4%  
54 1.4% 2%  
55 0.2% 0.3%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.2% 100%  
40 0.9% 99.8%  
41 2% 98.9%  
42 10% 97%  
43 16% 87%  
44 17% 71%  
45 20% 54% Median
46 14% 34% Last Result
47 12% 20%  
48 5% 7%  
49 2% 2%  
50 0.5% 0.6%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.5% 99.8%  
38 3% 99.3%  
39 8% 96%  
40 17% 88%  
41 23% 71% Median
42 20% 47%  
43 12% 27%  
44 9% 15%  
45 5% 7%  
46 1.3% 2%  
47 0.5% 0.7%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.4% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.5%  
33 8% 97%  
34 18% 89%  
35 23% 71% Median
36 22% 49%  
37 14% 27%  
38 8% 12%  
39 3% 5%  
40 1.4% 2%  
41 0.3% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.4% 99.9%  
28 1.1% 99.6%  
29 8% 98%  
30 13% 91%  
31 24% 78% Median
32 21% 54%  
33 20% 33%  
34 9% 14%  
35 3% 5%  
36 1.1% 1.4%  
37 0.3% 0.3%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.5% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.4%  
28 8% 97%  
29 17% 89% Last Result
30 22% 71% Median
31 24% 50%  
32 14% 26%  
33 8% 12%  
34 3% 4%  
35 0.7% 0.8%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 1.1% 99.8%  
23 5% 98.7%  
24 16% 94%  
25 20% 78% Median
26 30% 58%  
27 16% 28%  
28 8% 12%  
29 4% 4%  
30 0.5% 0.7%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations