Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 22–30 July 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 36.2% 34.3–38.2% 33.7–38.7% 33.3–39.2% 32.4–40.2%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 17.8% 16.3–19.4% 15.9–19.9% 15.5–20.3% 14.9–21.1%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 17.7% 16.2–19.3% 15.8–19.8% 15.5–20.2% 14.8–21.0%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 12.0% 10.8–13.4% 10.4–13.8% 10.1–14.2% 9.6–14.9%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.1% 6.2–8.3% 5.9–8.6% 5.7–8.9% 5.2–9.4%
Eesti 200 4.4% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.9% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–3.0% 1.0–3.3%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 42 41–45 40–46 39–47 38–48
Eesti Keskerakond 26 20 18–21 17–22 16–22 16–24
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 20 17–21 17–21 17–22 16–23
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 13 11–14 11–14 10–15 9–15
Erakond Isamaa 12 7 6–7 6–8 5–9 5–9
Eesti 200 0 0 0 0 0–4 0–5
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 1.2% 99.8%  
39 1.2% 98.6%  
40 4% 97%  
41 16% 93%  
42 29% 78% Median
43 16% 49%  
44 18% 33%  
45 7% 16%  
46 6% 8%  
47 1.0% 3%  
48 2% 2%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 3% 99.9%  
17 3% 97%  
18 33% 94%  
19 9% 62%  
20 35% 53% Median
21 10% 18%  
22 7% 8%  
23 0.4% 1.3%  
24 0.8% 0.9%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 1.4% 99.8%  
17 11% 98%  
18 11% 87%  
19 21% 76% Last Result
20 32% 56% Median
21 20% 24%  
22 3% 4%  
23 0.7% 0.8%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.7% 100%  
10 3% 99.3% Last Result
11 8% 97%  
12 38% 88%  
13 36% 50% Median
14 11% 14%  
15 3% 3%  
16 0.3% 0.4%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0.1% 99.9%  
5 3% 99.8%  
6 31% 97%  
7 56% 66% Median
8 7% 10%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 0% 3%  
4 1.3% 3%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 82 100% 80–83 80–83 79–84 76–85
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 69 100% 67–71 66–72 65–72 64–73
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 62 100% 60–65 59–65 59–66 57–67
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 62 100% 60–64 59–65 59–66 57–67
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 62 100% 60–64 59–65 59–66 57–67
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 62 100% 60–64 59–65 59–65 57–67
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 55 99.4% 53–58 52–58 51–59 50–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 49 31% 47–52 47–52 46–53 45–55
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 46 0.2% 43–48 42–49 41–49 40–50
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 39 0% 37–41 36–42 35–42 34–43
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 39 0% 36–41 36–41 35–42 34–43
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 32 0% 30–34 29–35 29–35 27–37
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 32 0% 30–34 29–35 28–35 27–36

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.2% 99.9%  
76 0.3% 99.7%  
77 1.0% 99.4%  
78 0.6% 98%  
79 1.4% 98% Last Result
80 10% 96%  
81 27% 87%  
82 45% 59% Median
83 11% 14%  
84 2% 4%  
85 0.9% 1.3%  
86 0.3% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.3% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.7%  
64 1.1% 99.6%  
65 2% 98% Last Result
66 5% 96%  
67 6% 92%  
68 25% 86%  
69 24% 61% Median
70 16% 37%  
71 15% 21%  
72 4% 5%  
73 0.7% 1.1%  
74 0.3% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.5% 99.8%  
58 1.2% 99.3%  
59 3% 98%  
60 17% 95% Last Result
61 14% 78%  
62 27% 64% Median
63 12% 37%  
64 14% 24%  
65 7% 11%  
66 3% 4%  
67 0.8% 1.1%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
57 0.8% 99.6%  
58 1.1% 98.8%  
59 5% 98%  
60 6% 92%  
61 23% 87%  
62 26% 64% Median
63 23% 38%  
64 8% 15%  
65 4% 7%  
66 1.4% 3%  
67 1.1% 1.3%  
68 0.2% 0.2%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
57 0.8% 99.6%  
58 1.1% 98.8%  
59 5% 98%  
60 6% 92%  
61 23% 87%  
62 26% 64% Median
63 23% 38%  
64 8% 15%  
65 4% 7%  
66 1.4% 3%  
67 1.1% 1.3%  
68 0.2% 0.2%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0% 100%  
55 0.3% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.7%  
57 0.3% 99.5%  
58 1.3% 99.2%  
59 4% 98%  
60 8% 94%  
61 14% 86%  
62 32% 72% Median
63 19% 40%  
64 13% 22%  
65 7% 9%  
66 1.3% 2%  
67 0.4% 0.5%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100% Last Result
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.4% 99.8%  
51 2% 99.4% Majority
52 4% 97%  
53 5% 93%  
54 22% 88%  
55 19% 66% Median
56 27% 47%  
57 10% 21%  
58 6% 11%  
59 3% 5%  
60 2% 2%  
61 0.3% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.9%  
45 0.8% 99.7%  
46 2% 98.8% Last Result
47 9% 97%  
48 8% 87%  
49 44% 79% Median
50 4% 35%  
51 16% 31% Majority
52 10% 15%  
53 2% 5%  
54 0.8% 2%  
55 1.2% 1.4%  
56 0.2% 0.2%  
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.4% 99.9%  
41 2% 99.5%  
42 3% 97%  
43 7% 94%  
44 10% 87%  
45 28% 78%  
46 18% 50%  
47 22% 32% Median
48 5% 10%  
49 4% 5%  
50 2% 2%  
51 0.1% 0.2% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 1.2% 99.7%  
35 2% 98%  
36 5% 96%  
37 8% 92%  
38 24% 83%  
39 26% 59%  
40 22% 33% Median
41 6% 11%  
42 5% 6%  
43 0.7% 0.8%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.9%  
34 0.7% 99.6%  
35 2% 98.9%  
36 8% 97%  
37 14% 90%  
38 19% 76%  
39 32% 57%  
40 13% 25% Median
41 8% 12%  
42 3% 4%  
43 1.0% 1.2%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.5% 99.9%  
28 0.9% 99.3%  
29 5% 98%  
30 16% 94%  
31 17% 77%  
32 24% 61%  
33 25% 37% Median
34 6% 12%  
35 4% 6%  
36 1.3% 2% Last Result
37 0.7% 0.7%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.9% 99.9%  
28 3% 99.0%  
29 5% 96% Last Result
30 10% 91%  
31 12% 80%  
32 35% 69%  
33 12% 34% Median
34 18% 23%  
35 4% 5%  
36 0.9% 1.2%  
37 0.3% 0.3%  
38 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations