Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 30 July–5 August 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 40.3% 38.3–42.3% 37.8–42.9% 37.3–43.4% 36.4–44.4%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 19.0% 17.5–20.7% 17.1–21.1% 16.7–21.6% 16.0–22.4%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 12.8% 11.5–14.3% 11.2–14.7% 10.9–15.0% 10.3–15.7%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 8.9% 7.8–10.2% 7.5–10.5% 7.3–10.8% 6.8–11.5%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.7% 6.6–10.0% 6.1–10.6%
Eesti 200 4.4% 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.7–4.4%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.8% 0.5–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.6% 0.3–1.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 48 46–51 46–53 45–53 43–54
Eesti Keskerakond 26 21 19–23 18–24 18–24 17–25
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 13 12–15 11–15 11–16 10–17
Erakond Isamaa 12 9 7–10 7–11 7–11 6–12
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 8 7–9 6–9 6–10 6–11
Eesti 200 0 0 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–5
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.5% 99.9%  
44 0.8% 99.5%  
45 2% 98.7%  
46 8% 97%  
47 10% 88%  
48 29% 78% Median
49 16% 50%  
50 14% 33%  
51 10% 19% Majority
52 4% 9%  
53 4% 5%  
54 1.1% 1.3%  
55 0.2% 0.2%  
56 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 1.3% 99.8%  
18 4% 98.5%  
19 5% 94%  
20 22% 90%  
21 31% 68% Median
22 15% 36%  
23 12% 21%  
24 8% 9%  
25 0.4% 0.6%  
26 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.8% 99.9%  
11 6% 99.1%  
12 13% 93%  
13 34% 79% Median
14 19% 45%  
15 23% 26%  
16 3% 4%  
17 1.0% 1.1%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.7% 100%  
7 15% 99.3%  
8 24% 85%  
9 42% 60% Median
10 13% 19%  
11 5% 6%  
12 0.8% 0.9% Last Result
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.5% 100%  
6 7% 99.5%  
7 32% 93%  
8 37% 61% Median
9 20% 24%  
10 3% 3% Last Result
11 0.5% 0.6%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 76% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 24%  
2 0% 24%  
3 0% 24%  
4 16% 24%  
5 8% 8%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 84 100% 81–86 80–86 80–86 78–88
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 71 100% 69–73 68–74 67–75 66–76
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 70 100% 68–72 67–74 66–74 65–75
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 65 100% 63–68 62–69 61–70 60–71
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 65 100% 63–68 62–69 61–70 60–71
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 62 100% 59–65 59–65 58–67 57–67
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 57 100% 55–60 54–61 54–62 52–63
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 57 99.9% 54–59 54–60 53–61 51–62
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 43 0% 41–46 40–47 39–47 38–48
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 37 0% 36–40 35–42 34–42 33–43
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 35 0% 32–37 32–38 31–38 30–39
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 29 0% 27–31 26–32 26–33 25–33
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 21 0% 19–23 18–24 18–24 17–26

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.5% 99.8%  
79 0.6% 99.3% Last Result
80 5% 98.6%  
81 21% 94%  
82 3% 73% Median
83 20% 71%  
84 14% 51%  
85 20% 37%  
86 14% 16%  
87 1.2% 2%  
88 1.1% 1.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
66 2% 99.8%  
67 2% 98%  
68 5% 96%  
69 9% 91%  
70 24% 83% Median
71 21% 59%  
72 22% 38%  
73 7% 16%  
74 5% 9%  
75 3% 4%  
76 1.5% 2%  
77 0.3% 0.3%  
78 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100% Last Result
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.3% 99.9%  
65 2% 99.5%  
66 2% 98%  
67 4% 96%  
68 20% 92%  
69 16% 72% Median
70 10% 56%  
71 26% 46%  
72 11% 20%  
73 3% 9%  
74 5% 6%  
75 0.8% 1.1%  
76 0.2% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100% Last Result
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.6% 99.9%  
61 2% 99.2%  
62 3% 97%  
63 8% 95%  
64 26% 86%  
65 19% 60% Median
66 16% 41%  
67 12% 25%  
68 6% 14%  
69 5% 8%  
70 2% 3%  
71 1.0% 1.1%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100% Last Result
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.6% 99.9%  
61 2% 99.2%  
62 3% 97%  
63 8% 95%  
64 26% 86%  
65 19% 60% Median
66 16% 41%  
67 12% 25%  
68 6% 14%  
69 5% 8%  
70 2% 3%  
71 1.0% 1.1%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.4% 99.8%  
58 3% 99.5%  
59 7% 97%  
60 4% 90%  
61 26% 85% Median
62 19% 60%  
63 11% 41%  
64 13% 30%  
65 12% 17%  
66 2% 4%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.4% 0.5%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100% Last Result
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0.2% 100% Majority
52 0.6% 99.7%  
53 1.0% 99.1%  
54 4% 98%  
55 6% 94%  
56 12% 88%  
57 37% 76% Median
58 13% 38%  
59 11% 25%  
60 5% 14%  
61 5% 9%  
62 3% 5%  
63 1.1% 1.3%  
64 0.2% 0.2%  
65 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100% Last Result
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0.1% 100%  
51 1.0% 99.9% Majority
52 0.3% 98.9%  
53 2% 98.7%  
54 10% 96%  
55 28% 87%  
56 6% 58% Median
57 14% 52%  
58 19% 38%  
59 13% 19%  
60 3% 6%  
61 1.1% 3%  
62 1.2% 2%  
63 0.3% 0.3%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.2% 100%  
38 0.8% 99.7%  
39 1.5% 99.0%  
40 3% 97%  
41 7% 95%  
42 28% 87%  
43 20% 60% Median
44 14% 39%  
45 4% 25%  
46 12% 22%  
47 8% 9%  
48 0.7% 0.8%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 0.7% 99.8%  
34 4% 99.0%  
35 5% 95%  
36 26% 90%  
37 16% 64%  
38 11% 49% Median
39 20% 37%  
40 10% 18%  
41 2% 8%  
42 5% 6%  
43 0.6% 0.7%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.9%  
30 1.3% 99.7%  
31 2% 98%  
32 8% 96%  
33 20% 88%  
34 14% 67% Median
35 17% 53%  
36 18% 36%  
37 12% 18%  
38 5% 6%  
39 1.0% 1.3%  
40 0.3% 0.3%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100%  
24 0.3% 99.9%  
25 2% 99.6%  
26 4% 98%  
27 21% 94%  
28 9% 72%  
29 23% 63% Median
30 21% 41%  
31 11% 19%  
32 4% 8%  
33 3% 3%  
34 0.3% 0.4%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.5% 99.9%  
18 4% 99.4%  
19 9% 95%  
20 22% 86%  
21 21% 65% Median
22 14% 43%  
23 21% 29%  
24 6% 8%  
25 1.0% 2%  
26 0.6% 0.6%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations