Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 5–12 August 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 33.5% 31.6–35.5% 31.1–36.0% 30.6–36.5% 29.8–37.4%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 22.0% 20.4–23.7% 19.9–24.2% 19.5–24.7% 18.8–25.5%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 16.4% 15.0–18.0% 14.6–18.4% 14.2–18.8% 13.6–19.6%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.7%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 9.1% 8.0–10.4% 7.7–10.7% 7.5–11.1% 7.0–11.7%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Eesti 200 4.4% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.3% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 39 39 39 39–40 39–40
Eesti Keskerakond 26 25 25 25 22–25 22–25
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 18 18 18 18 18
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 10 10 10 8–10 8–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 9 9 9 9 9
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0–4 0–4
Eesti 200 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0% 99.9% Last Result
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0% 99.9%  
39 96% 99.8% Median
40 3% 4%  
41 0.1% 0.3%  
42 0% 0.2%  
43 0% 0.2%  
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 3% 99.8%  
23 0.1% 96%  
24 0.1% 96%  
25 96% 96% Median
26 0% 0.2% Last Result
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.2% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.7%  
17 0% 99.7%  
18 99.5% 99.7% Median
19 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 3% 100%  
9 0% 97%  
10 96% 97% Last Result, Median
11 0% 0.2%  
12 0% 0.2%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.3% 100%  
9 99.5% 99.6% Median
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0.1% Last Result
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 4%  
2 0% 4%  
3 0% 4%  
4 3% 4%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 82 100% 82 82 80–82 80–82
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 66 100% 66 66 66–67 66–67
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 64 100% 64 64 62–64 62–64
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 57 100% 57 57 57–58 57–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 58 99.9% 58 58 57–58 57–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 58 99.9% 58 58 57–58 57–58
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 52 96% 52 52 49–52 49–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 48 0.3% 48 48 48–49 48–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 49 0.3% 49 49 48–49 48–49
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 44 0% 44 44 39–44 39–44
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 43 0% 43 43 40–43 40–43
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 35 0% 35 35 30–35 30–35
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 28 0% 28 28 26–28 26–28

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.2% 100%  
79 0% 99.8% Last Result
80 4% 99.8%  
81 0% 96%  
82 96% 96% Median
83 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0% 99.9%  
61 0% 99.9%  
62 0% 99.9%  
63 0% 99.8%  
64 0% 99.8%  
65 0% 99.8% Last Result
66 96% 99.8% Median
67 4% 4%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0% 99.9% Last Result
61 0% 99.9%  
62 3% 99.9%  
63 0% 96%  
64 96% 96% Median
65 0.2% 0.2%  
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100% Majority
52 0% 99.9%  
53 0% 99.9% Last Result
54 0% 99.8%  
55 0.1% 99.8%  
56 0.1% 99.8%  
57 96% 99.7% Median
58 3% 4%  
59 0.2% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0% 99.9% Majority
52 0% 99.9%  
53 0% 99.9%  
54 0% 99.9%  
55 0% 99.9%  
56 0% 99.9% Last Result
57 3% 99.9%  
58 96% 96% Median
59 0% 0.3%  
60 0% 0.3%  
61 0% 0.3%  
62 0% 0.3%  
63 0% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0.2% 0.2%  
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0% 99.9% Majority
52 0% 99.9%  
53 0% 99.9%  
54 0% 99.9%  
55 0% 99.9%  
56 0% 99.9% Last Result
57 3% 99.9%  
58 96% 96% Median
59 0% 0.3%  
60 0% 0.3%  
61 0% 0.3%  
62 0% 0.3%  
63 0% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0.2% 0.2%  
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.2% 100%  
45 0% 99.8%  
46 0% 99.8%  
47 0% 99.8%  
48 0% 99.8%  
49 3% 99.8%  
50 0.1% 96%  
51 0% 96% Majority
52 96% 96% Median
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0% 99.9%  
42 0% 99.9%  
43 0% 99.9%  
44 0% 99.9%  
45 0% 99.9%  
46 0% 99.9% Last Result
47 0% 99.8%  
48 96% 99.8% Median
49 3% 4%  
50 0% 0.3%  
51 0% 0.3% Majority
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0% 99.9%  
44 0% 99.9% Last Result
45 0% 99.9%  
46 0% 99.9%  
47 0% 99.9%  
48 3% 99.9%  
49 96% 96% Median
50 0% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.3% Majority
52 0% 0.2%  
53 0% 0.2%  
54 0% 0.2%  
55 0% 0.2%  
56 0% 0.2%  
57 0.2% 0.2%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 3% 100%  
40 0% 97%  
41 0% 97%  
42 0.2% 97%  
43 0% 96%  
44 96% 96% Median
45 0.2% 0.2%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.2% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.8%  
38 0% 99.8%  
39 0.1% 99.8%  
40 3% 99.7%  
41 0% 96%  
42 0% 96%  
43 96% 96% Median
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0.1% Last Result
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 3% 100%  
31 0% 97%  
32 0% 97%  
33 0.1% 97%  
34 0.2% 96%  
35 96% 96% Median
36 0% 0.2% Last Result
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.1% 99.9%  
26 3% 99.9%  
27 0% 96%  
28 96% 96% Median
29 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
30 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations